Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
While BlackBerry Ltd.’s (BB-N, BB-T) first-quarter fiscal 2026 financial results exceeded the Street’s expectations, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Paul Treiber warns its guidance “still assumes uncertainty persists.”
“BlackBerry reported Q1 above RBC/consensus due to better than expected Secure Comms and QNX revenue,” he said in a client note. ”While BlackBerry slightly increased FY26 guidance, the outlook is conservative and still assumes an uncertain auto/macro environment. Even though BlackBerry is seeing good pipeline growth, visibility to auto production is low and new deals may be pushed out.”
After the bell on Tuesday, the Waterloo, Ont.-based company reported first-quarter revenue of US$122-million, topping both Mr. Treiber’s US$114-million estimate and the consensus estimate of US$112-million due to better-than-anticipated contributions from its QNX car software business as well as its Secure Communications segment. Adjusted earnings per share of 2 US cents also topped estimate of 0 cents.
“Due to better than expected Q1, BlackBerry raised FY26 Secure Comms revenue guidance by $4-million to $234-244-million from $230-240-million previously,” he added. “BlackBerry left FY26 QNX revenue guidance unchanged at $250-270-million. As a result, BlackBerry only modestly took up FY26 guidance to $508-538-million revenue and $72-87-million adj. EBITDA from $504-534-million and $69-84-million previously. The mid-point is slightly above consensus at $514-million revenue and $79-million adj. EBITDA. FY26 adj. EPS guidance is unchanged at $0.08-0.10. Our FY26 estimates increase to $530-million revenue and $78-million adj. EBITDA from $519-million and $72-million previously.”
Mr. Treiber thinks BlackBerry provided a conservative near-term outlook for QNX, given it may be “impacted by lower auto production and elongated decision-making.” He also sees Secure Communications “seeing resiliency” with “a growing pipeline for Secusmart at a number of governments, given high-profile security issues with consumer messaging apps.”
With his revised forecast, Mr. Treiber raised his target for the company’s U.S.-listed shares to US$4 from US$3.75, keeping a “sector perform” rating. The average is US$4.45, according to LSEG data.
“Our Sector Perform thesis reflects our view that a material upward re-rating in the shares requires improved growth, which seems less likely at the moment,” he said. “BlackBerry is trading at 4.6 times NTM EV/S [next 12-month enterprise value to sales], above its historical average (4.0 times), though below auto tech peers at 5.7 times.”
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National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar moved his recommendation for Parkland Corp. (PKI-T) to “tender” from “outperform” after its shareholders on Tuesday voted in favour of a US$9.1-billion deal to be acquired by U.S.-based Sunoco LP (SUN-N).
“SUN will ultimately pay 0.295 SUNCorp units and CAD$19.80 in cash on a total basis, given proration limits; the implication is that if shareholders elect to receive the CAD$44 cash offer, they may not receive it, depending on the elections of other shareholders,” he said.
Mr. Shreedhar moved his target to $41from $42 to reflect “the current valuation of SUN’s offer for PKI (using SUN’s current stock price as a determinant of value for SUNCorp units.” The average on the Street is $44.36.
Elsewhere, Scotia Capita’s Ben Isaacson moved Parkland to “sector perform” from “sector perform” with a $44 target (unchanged).
“We view the news as neutral for the shares, as this outcome was expected by most,” he said. “There are four points. First, Parkland projects the effective date of the transaction will occur in 2H/25. For the deal to close, standard antitrust and regulatory approvals are required. Second, upon conclusion of the deal, PKI will become a sub of SUN, and will subsequently be delisted. Third, board nominees were approved. Finally, as the likelihood of deal close is very high, the stock will now move closer toward a time value of money discount, meaning the prospect of outperformance is reduced. Accordingly, we have downgraded PKI to Sector Perform.”
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TD Cowen analyst Vince Valentini thinks Telus Health is “becoming a high growth asset of consequence” for Telus Corp.’s (T-T) ahead of an expected spinoff, with an initial public offering anticipated as early as 2026.
“We believe TELUS Health (TH) can achieve near-double digit revenue growth going forward, and thus why we believe the business can command a mid-teens EBITDA multiple,” he said in a client report.
“We encourage investors to ramp up their knowledge of TH in advance of a potential minority interest transaction with a strategic or financial partner in the next 6-12 months, which should set things in motion for an IPO about two years after that”
Andrew Willis: Telus fails to deliver on Entwistle’s IPO-based growth strategy
Mr. Valentini estimates an enterprise value of $6.9-billion for Telis Heath, representing 14 per cent of his TELUS EV. He predicts the value will increase to $7.6-billion moving forward into fiscal 2027.
“TELUS management believes that TH could be worth $10-bilion on an EV basis by the end of 2027, albeit some additional acquired growth could be included,” he added. “This value is greater than the $7-$10-billion NAV that they had previously communicated.”
“TH’s organic revenue growth profile at HSD/LDD [high single to low double digits] and best-in-class margin expansion profile (albeit from a lower starting point) positions it towards the top end of its peer group, where EBITDA valuation multiples are in the mid-to-high teens. ... We highlight that TH has a healthy growth profile in an industry with a number of secular tailwinds.”
The analyst reaffirmed his “buy” rating and $25 target for Telus shares. The current average is $22.76.
“We expect TELUS to sustain healthy dividend growth over the next three years,” he said. “This growth, combined with the current yield, should drive outsized investor interest in TELUS relative to BCE. TELUS’ yield and dividend growth stack up well versus Canadian alternatives, along with global telcos. Meanwhile, TELUS’ dividend quality is reasonable as we forecast it is set to drive its payout ratio to just below 100 per cent by FY26E. Additional non-core asset sales will also help its leverage and payout ratio quality. TELUS has virtually completed the capital-intensive copper-to-fibre migration across its footprint. This will help it reduce costs through the decommissioning of its legacy copper network, while its new FTTH network helps improve churn, market share, and ARPU while also reducing capex. We reiterate our BUY rating.”
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Desjardins Securities analyst Allison Carson said she was impressed by the team at Nevada King Gold Corp.’s (NKG-X) Atlanta gold project during a recent site visit, seeing its regional exploration opportunities as “promising.”
“We see potential to expand the 1.1moz Atlanta deposit or find satellite deposits, and expect results from the drill program to demonstrate regional upside,” she said. “NKG currently trades at a deep discount to peers. Given the high-grade oxide deposit in Nevada and exploration upside potential, we view current levels as an attractive entry point.”
“The 120-square-kilometre Atlanta project is accessible by main roads and only 250 kilometres from Las Vegas. In addition, the company has access to water and power. We view Nevada as a straightforward state in relation to permitting, and the project benefits from being located in the U.S., which has an executive order to expedite permitting for projects with critical minerals, including gold.”
Ms. Carson said the Vancouver-based company is now focusing on the Silver Park and Atlanta South projects in its portfolio for expansion.
“NKG has strengthened its exploration model, which has identified several targets that could host Atlanta and other styles of mineralization on the property,” he said. “We view Silver Park and Atlanta South as the two most promising areas. Recent results from the 30,000-metre drill program highlight Silver Park as an area which could host Atlanta-style mineralization and could potentially be a satellite deposit. NKG will begin drilling at Atlanta South, a potential extension of Atlanta or a satellite deposit, this summer after hitting a highgrade intercept last year that returned 6.28g/t over 54.9m.”
“We now model the 1.1moz resource and add in an additional 500koz in upside for regional potential. This generates a 12.5- year minelife, with average annual production of 110koz at AISC [all-in sustaining cost] of US$1,584/oz and an NPV5-per-cent of $1.044-billion.”
To reflect the lower head grades and a higher strip ratio as outlined in its updated MRE, she cut her target for Nevada King shares by 10 cents to 80 cents, keeping a “buy” rating. The average is 73 cents.
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ATB Capital Markets analyst Amir Arif thinks the fair market value for shares of Kiwetinohk Energy Corp. (KEC-T) is in the $25-$30 range.
The Calgary-based company closed at $20.20 on Tuesday. A day earlier, it announced it has launched a formal business strategy review to “evaluate a range of potential value enhancing opportunities with a focus on the Company’s upstream assets and an orderly exit from its power business.”
In a report released Wednesday, Mr. Arif predicted that value “should be achieved in 1.5-2 years from the ongoing production/free cashflow growth as-is and the lower end could potentially be achieved sooner (six months) depending on the outcome of the ongoing strategic review.”
“There is no cashflow associated with the power assets and we believe the current valuation of 1.9 times 2026 strip EV/DACF reflects a very attractive value for the upstream business,” said Mr., Arif. “We believe the valuation discount is purely related to its limited trading liquidity. The trading liquidity issue could improve either through a sale/merger through the strategic review process or an eventual sale/merger down the road when processing capacity is filled in 2027.
“Either way, this remains our favorite small cap idea and we would buy on dips along the way for an eventual $25-$30 price target. The key reasons we like the name are its top tier Duvernay assets, gas plant ownership, 24 years of inventory life, physical capacity to move 90 per cent of its gas to the Chicago market, and additional $1-$2/sh value from its power segment. In the remainder of this note, we provide some additional details on each of these key factors. KEC maintains a double-digit growth rate while generating free cashflow resulting in strip valuation improving.”
He kept an “outperform” rating and $22 target. The average is $19.50.
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In other analyst actions:
* While continuing to see the set-up for long-term growth, BMO’s Rene Cartier expects “more limited” gains for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM-T) in the near term, leading him to lowered his rating to “market perform” from “outperform” previously. His target rose to $35 from $33, remaining below the $36.49 average on the Street.
“Following a period of strong price performance in 2025, shares of Triple Flag have gained 60 per cent,” he said.
“While we continue to see growth in production for Triple Flag in the medium to long term, our near-term estimates showcase a decrease. Relative to other mid-cap royalty peers, Triple Flag shares are now trading at a premium on NAV.”