Markets update
- The S&P 500 lost steam into the close, giving up early gains to skid into negative territory as investors weighed fading hopes for an earlier-than-expected end to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran against a backdrop of renewed military threats and ongoing worries of economic stagflation.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 34.29 points, or 0.07%, to 47,706.51, the S&P 500 lost 14.51 points, or 0.21%, to 6,781.48 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.16 points, or 0.01%, to 22,697.10.
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index ended up 81.33 points, or 0.3%, at 33,270.65. The materials index added 1.2%. Financials were up 0.8%. Five of the 10 major sectors ended lower, including energy which lost 0.5%. Technology was also a drag, falling 1.5%. Thomson Reuters shares ended 7% lower, contributing to the industrials sector losing 1.1%.
- Crude eased further, a day after President Donald Trump said he saw an earlier end to the conflict than his previous timeline of four to five weeks. Brent futures fell $11.16, or 11%, to settle at US$87.80 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at US$83.45 a barrel, down $11.32, or 11.9%. Both benchmarks logged the biggest single-day percentage loss since March 2022, after rocketing to four-year highs early on Monday.
- Oil prices temporarily sank even lower in midday trade Tuesday, after U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright wrote on X that the American military had facilitated a shipment of oil out of the Strait of Hormuz. The tweet was later removed and the White House indicated the statement was premature.
- Gold rose nearly 2%, buoyed by a softer U.S. dollar and easing inflation concerns. Moves in Treasury yields were mixed and modest.
03/10/26 17:26
Cliffwater’s US$33 billion private credit fund to see over 7% redemptions: report
Cliffwater LLC will likely face redemption requests in excess of 7% from its flagship private credit fund, Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter.
Cliffwater Corporate Lending Fund, with about US$33 billion in assets under management, is an interval fund, and must pay back investors 5% quarterly if requests meet that level, the report added.
The firm hasn’t yet decided whether to limit redemptions at the 5% or 7% mark, according to the report.
Reuters could not independently verify the report. A spokesperson for Cliffwater declined to comment.
Private credit has seen a wave of investor withdrawals this year as concerns mount over deteriorating credit quality, particularly in loans to software companies that may face disruption from artificial intelligence.
Some analysts say the fears are overblown, arguing that credit fundamentals remain stable, but investors have remained wary.
- Reuters
03/10/26 17:20
Amazon targeting US$37 billion in bond sale amid AI push
Amazon.com (AMZN-Q) is looking to raise about US$37 billion in an 11-part bond sale, according to a term sheet seen by Reuters on Tuesday, as it looks to fund its spending on AI infrastructure buildout.
The sale attracted about $126 billion of peak demand for bonds in the U.S., a source familiar with the matter said, indicating the bonds were heavily oversubscribed.
The Amazon Web Services parent is offering bonds denominated in dollars and euros. Amazon is the latest tech giant to sell huge amounts of debt as hyperscalers prepare to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in AI infrastructure.
Bloomberg News first reported the news earlier in the day.
- Reuters
03/10/26 16:28
MDA Space announces plans for U.S. IPO
MDA Space Ltd. (MDA-T) announced in the post market that it has launched a marketed public offering of common shares of MDA Space in the United States and Canada. It represents the company’s initial public offering in the U.S.
MDA Space plans to list its common shares on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol “MDA”. Shares will continue to be traded in Canada under that same ticker.
A total of US$300 million of shares will be offered by MDA Space. It’ll be conducted through a syndicate of underwriters.
“The offering will be priced in the context of the market, with the price per share to be determined at the time of entering into an underwriting agreement for the offering,” a press release from MDA said.
MDA Space said it intends to use the net proceeds of the offering to allow the company to pursue its growth strategies.
The full press release can be found here.
- Globe staff
03/10/26 16:09
Oracle beats quarterly revenue estimates
Oracle (ORCL-N) beat Wall Street estimates for third-quarter revenue on Tuesday, as robust demand for its cloud computing services, driven by the artificial intelligence boom, helped the company compete against larger rivals.
The company reported total revenue of US$17.19 billion for the quarter, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $$16.91 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Remaining performance obligations, a key indicator of future contracted revenue, stood at $553 billion, ahead of the $540.37 billion estimate from four Visible Alpha analysts.
Oracle also predicted that the AI data center boom will power its revenue above Wall Street estimates well into 2027.
Shares are up about 8% in post market trading.
- Reuters
03/10/26 15:58
What market analysts are saying about oil
Here’s what some market participants and observers are saying about today’s big move in oil prices:
Andrew Lipow, founder of Lipow Oil Associates
“This is the market reacting to the possibility that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen. From the administration’s perspective, the move also carries clear optics: lower oil and gasoline prices help ease consumer pain.”
Priyanka Sachdeva, analyst with Phillip Nova
“Discussions around easing sanctions on Russian oil, comments from Donald Trump hinting that the conflict could eventually de-escalate, and the possibility of G7 countries tapping strategic oil reserves all pointed to the same message - that oil barrels will somehow continue to reach the market.”
JPMorgan analysts, in a note
“Policy measures may have limited impact on oil prices unless safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is assured, given the potential losses of up to 12 million bpd over the next two weeks."
Paul Nolte, senior wealth adviser and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest
“When you see that type of a parabolic move, whether it’s in gold or oil or anything else, you tend to get a pretty violent reversal as soon as you get some news on the other side."
Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder
“There’s a lot of confusion among investors. You see these headlines coming out of the White House that give the [stock] market hope, and then clearer heads prevail and markets realize this is nowhere near over."
- Reuters, Globe staff
03/10/26 14:57
U.S. Navy has not yet escorted ships through Strait of Hormuz, White House says
The U.S. military has not yet escorted any commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters.
Her comments came after U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright deleted a post on X in which had said the U.S. Navy successfully escorted an oil tanker through the key water way.
The U.S.-Israel war against Iran has already effectively halted shipments through the Strait along Iran’s coast, where a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes, and Middle East oil producers have run out of storage and stopped pumping.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on March 3 that the U.S. would provide protection through the Strait for oil tankers. The Pentagon on Tuesday renewed threats to hit Iran harder unless shipments can flow through and said it was striking Iranian mine-laying vessels and mine storage facilities.
Wright then posted on X that the U.S. Navy had escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz “to ensure oil remains flowing to global markets.”
Soon after, he deleted the post for reasons that were unclear.
Commenting on Wright’s remarks, a spokesperson for Iran’s Revolutionary Guards denied an oil ship had been escorted.
- Reuters
03/10/26 14:52
Rise in energy prices over Iran is temporary: White House
The American public will see oil and gas prices drop rapidly, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Tuesday, once the objectives of the joint Israeli-U.S. air war against Iran are fully achieved.
“Rest assured, to the American people, the recent increase in oil and gas prices is temporary, and this operation will result in lower gas prices in the long term,” Leavitt told reporters.
Leavitt added that Trump and his energy team were closely watching the markets, speaking with industry leaders, and that the U.S. military was drawing up additional options in line with the president’s directive to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.
- Reuters
03/10/26 14:37
$100 oil wouldn’t be all that bad for the U.S.: Capital Economics
- Darcy Keith
Where crude oil prices are heading in the short term are clearly anybody’s guess. But if US$100 a barrel oil sticks for some time, Capital Economics doesn’t see much damage to the U.S. economy.
And even if crude spikes to the US$150 level, it would need to stay there for a prolonged period for the U.S. Federal Reserve to react by hiking interest rates, said Capital Economics deputy chief North America economist Stephen Brown.
That’s a comforting thought for investors, given Fed hikes would likely be very bad news for stocks.
From a report from Brown today: “The US’ position as a modest net energy exporter means a world of near $100 oil prices would not be particularly bad news for the economy. The impact on real GDP growth would still be modestly negative in the near term, as consumers were forced to reduce non-energy spending, but that would be offset over time by the positive effects of stronger income in the oil patch. Recent experience means the Fed would find the accompanying jump in inflation hard to ignore, but we suspect oil prices would need to rise much further – to near $150 for many months – before the Fed considered pivoting to interest rate hikes."
03/10/26 13:16
Oil falls even further. Some think too far
- Darcy Keith
The selloff in WTI crude oil futures is picking up more steam ahead of the 230 pm ET settlement, now down close to 15%.
One new development that seems to be contributing to the move was a tweet from U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright saying that the Navy escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. But the tweet has since been removed, the Financial Times and CNBC are reporting. And the Iranian media is denying that the oil ship was escorted, according to Reuters.
Regardless, an epic retracement after crude reached nearly US$120 a barrel at the start of this week.
“Clearly Trump’s comments about a short-lived war have calmed markets. While there was an overreaction to the upside yesterday, we think there is an overreaction to the downside today,” Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank, told Reuters.
Simon Flowers, chairman and chief analyst at Wood Mackenzie, was also sounding cautious about today’s oil plunge.
“When the conflict ends, cranking up the supply chain won’t be swift,” Flowers was quoted by Reuters as saying. “Product barrels in storage at refineries or in port might be moved on vessels quite quickly. But if wells are shut-in for a prolonged period, restarting production to full output could take weeks or even longer.”
03/10/26 12:48
Wall Street not so fearful. Rosenberg not so bullish
- Darcy Keith
The volatility index (VIX) - Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge - is signaling much more relaxed trading desks today.
In early afternoon trading, the index was at 22.9. It had reached just above the 30 mark in Monday’s very wild trading session.
The VIX is actually not showing all that much alarm at all today, trading at roughly half the level reached briefly during U.S. President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariff presentation last April.
For economist David Rosenberg, this “seems to smack of a high level of confidence and complacency.”
For him, the VIX would need to reach 40 to signal true capitulation, the moment of maximum pessimism where investors would be wise to buy on the dip.
Rosenberg, in his Breakfast with Dave newsletter this morning, said he’s on the lookout for an opportunity to turn bullish on stocks. But he says that moment hasn’t arrived yet, and if it does, it doesn’t mean he’ll stay bullish for very long.
“It is encouraging to see oil prices reverse, but they are still some +30% above where they were before the war began,” he said. “The other thing to consider is that the S&P 500 was sitting at 6,879 just before the onset of the war, lower than it was near the end of October. Ergo, the stock market was already looking wobbly before this conflict began. And if we do manage to emerge victorious from this war, understanding that we will see a relief rally, and we go back to focus on what was happening prior, the situation was hardly constructive: (i) credit market stress, especially in the private market (ii) balance sheet/financing concerns in the AI space (iii) the new phase of the tariff file (iv) the ongoing K-shaped economy (v) an elevated CAPE multiple of 39x (vi) contracting employment (vii) the AI fallout on other sectors (viii) stubbornly high “measured” inflation and (ix) a Fed turning increasingly less dovish."
“You can trade a “relief rally” but can’t really invest in it beyond a few days or weeks. There remain plenty of unresolved issues."
03/10/26 12:26
Brent oil prices to remain above US$95/bbl over next 2 months, EIA says
Brent oil prices are set to trade above US$95 a barrel over the next two months as the Iran war disrupts supplies, before falling to around US$70 by the end of the year, the Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday in a monthly report.
Oil shipments have been largely blocked from using the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which a fifth of global oil flows every day, and this will cause Mideast oil output to fall further in the coming weeks, the EIA said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook.
Saudi Arabia began oil output cuts, sources said on Monday, joining other Gulf producers including Iraq and Kuwait in reducing production amid the constraints. Those production shut-ins will gradually ease as transit resumes, the EIA said, adding that once oil flows are reestablished through the Strait, global oil production will continue to outpace demand.
The EIA raised its price forecast for Brent by 37% from the prior month to US$79 a barrel in 2026. Brent should fall below US$80 a barrel in the third quarter of this year, it said.
Higher oil prices are set to encourage more U.S. crude production, with output expected to average 13.61 million barrels per day this year, rising to 13.83 million bpd in 2027, the EIA said. That compares with the EIA’s previous forecasts of 13.6 million bpd for 2026, and 13.32 million bpd for 2027.
- Reuters
03/10/26 10:44
Péladeau loses bid to remake Transat’s board
- Eric Atkins
An Air Transat Airbus A330 approaches for landing in Lisbon just before sunrise, Monday, July 22, 2024.Armando Franca/The Associated Press
Quebecor Inc. chief executive officer Pierre Karl Péladeau lost his bid to take control of the board of Transat AT (TRZ-T) at the airline operator’s annual meeting on Tuesday.
Mr. Péladeau, who controls 9.5 per cent of Transat through Financière Outremont Inc., nominated three directors to the board, including himself, and proposed cutting the number of directors to six. Mr. Péladeau has said he is unhappy with the company’s operational and financial performance.
However, Transat said preliminary ballot results showed shareholders rejected Mr. Péladeau’s nominees and his plan to reduce the size of the board. Results were to be made final later on Tuesday.
Shareholders approved the board’s eight nominees, including Transat chief executive officer Annick Guérard.
Read more: Here
03/10/26 10:44
Goeasy shares dive 45% on surging loan losses, suspended dividend
- Tim Kiladze
Goeasy Ltd. (GSY-T), a personal lender for subprime borrowers, shocked investors with surging loan losses and a suspended dividend, sending its shares tumbling 45 per cent in early Tuesday trading.
Based in Mississauga, Ont., Goeasy made its name during a credit boom fuelled by ultra-low interest rates. Between 2015 and 2025, the company’s shares soared more than 1,000 per cent and investors salivated over Goeasy’s relentless growth.
Over the past year, however, there have been growing concerns about the quality of its loans, and on Tuesday the company said it will book an incremental $178-million charge for bad loans, as well as a $55-million writedown for loan interest and fees when it reports fourth-quarter earnings at the end of the month.
Goeasy also withdrew the fourth quarter business outlook it had previously reported, as well as its three-year financial forecast. Adding more uncertainty, the company also suspended its quarterly dividend.
“We expect pressure on net charge offs and higher delinquency reporting for the coming quarters, before an anticipated improvement in 2027,” chief financial officer Felix Wu said in a statement. Net charge offs are a financial industry term for loan losses.
The root of the deteriorating outlook is a division called LendCare, which was acquired by Goeasy in 2021. To fix the division, Goeasy has a appointed a new head, Farhan Ali Khan, and the company also pledged to reduce loans from LendCare’s auto and powersports arms.
Read more: Here
03/10/26 10:24
Wall Street slips as investors monitor U.S.-Iran tensions
Wall Street’s main stock indexes slipped on Tuesday as investors exercised caution after comments from U.S. officials suggested escalation in the Middle East war that has spiked energy costs and fuelled inflationary concerns.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and top U.S. general Dan Caine suggested that strikes against Iran were intensifying, a day after President Donald Trump said he saw an earlier end to the conflict than his previous timeline of four-to-five-weeks.
Crude and natural gas prices extended declines on Trump’s comments, easing further from the worrying $120-per-barrel mark, even as Iran said it would continue its oil blockade through the region.
Energy producers in the Middle East are yet to resume full-scale production, and shipping costs are likely to be elevated for a while.
“Yesterday, there was a more optimistic tone that this was going to be a faster military event and today the Defense Secretary alluded to the fact that at least for today, it’s intensifying. So therefore markets are taking a pause on that sort of optimistic rally they had in the wake of President Trump’s commentary yesterday,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth.
Travel stocks, which have borne the brunt of the selloff since the war started, slipped on Tuesday, with an index tracking passenger airlines down over 2 per cent, while cruise companies Carnival and Royal Caribbean fell 1.8 per cent each.
Surging crude prices since the start of the conflict have revived concerns that the U.S. economy could slip into stagflation and complicate the Federal Reserve’s work, as data also suggested the labor market was weakening.
Traders have priced in a potential 25 basis point rate cut around September, according to LSEG-compiled data.
At 9:58 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 249.15 points, or 0.52 per cent, to 47,491.65, the S&P 500 lost 26.28 points, or 0.39 per cent, to 6,769.71 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 33.24 points, or 0.15 per cent, to 22,662.71.
The CBOE’s volatility index, Wall Street’s fear gauge, was last down 0.68 points to 24.82.
Nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were in the red, with energy and financials down over 1 per cent each.
Overall losses on Wall Street, since the start of the war, have been contained, as technology stocks rebounded, making them the best performing sector on the S&P 500 this month with a 1.3-per-cent gain.
-Reuters
03/10/26 10:21
Deutsche Bank upgrades U.S. and European tech sector, turns ‘overweight’ on software
Deutsche Bank upgraded the U.S. and European technology sector to “neutral” from “underweight” on Tuesday and turned “overweight” on software, saying the months-long rout sparked by fears of AI-driven disruption has likely run its course.
The shift comes after a sharp global software selloff over the past six months that left valuations at historically thin premiums and fueled concerns the industry would struggle to outgrow the broader market.
Evidence now points the other way, Deutsche Bank said, with earnings proving resilient and no major company expecting a negative revenue impact from AI in 2026.
The brokerage also highlighted opportunities in Germany’s cyclical sectors including industrials and construction materials, which have slid in recent days despite what it sees as intact support from Berlin’s fiscal push.
-Reuters
03/10/26 10:16
U.S. corporate insider selling jumps in February as market volatility rises
U.S. corporate insiders sold far more shares in their companies than they bought in February, marking the largest gap since July 2024 and underscoring executives’ reluctance to purchase stock during a volatile month for markets.
The pessimism among U.S. executives, who have the clearest view of their own businesses, emerged during growing fears of AI disruption in February and does not yet reflect the added shock from the Iran war.
While insider transactions are often shaped by personal financial planning rather than a direct view on markets, analysts flagged that it might still serve as a sign of corporate caution.
The seller-to-buyer ratio for U.S. public companies jumped to 4.2 in February, its highest level in 20 months, data from The Washington Service showed.
There were 2,260 recorded instances of insiders selling, while only 543 recorded instances of insiders buying, the analytics firm said.
-Reuters
03/10/26 09:37
TSX opens higher as gold rally cushions oil drop
Canada’s main stock index opened slightly up on Tuesday, supported by a rally in gold even as falling oil prices pressured energy shares, with investors assessing U.S. President Donald Trump’s signals that the Middle East conflict could wind down soon.
At 9:33 a.m. ET, the S&P/TSX composite index was up 0.39 per cent at 33,318.03 points
Wall Street’s main indexes opened subdued on Tuesday, following comments from U.S. officials that suggested escalating hostilities in the Middle East, a day after President Donald Trump hinted at an early end to the war.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 30.6 points, or 0.06 per cent, at the open to 47771.43. The S&P 500 fell 0.6 points, or 0.01 per cent, to 6796.56, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 27.0 points, or 0.12 per cent, to 22722.939.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that Tuesday would be the most intense day of strikes against Iran, while top U.S. general Dan Caine said that strikes were being carried out against Iranian mine-laying vessels.
Investors had hoped for an early de-escalation after Trump said on Monday that the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran could be nearing an end, sooner than his earlier four-to-five-week timeline. Crude and natural gas prices also eased from the worrying US$120-per-barrel mark.
-Reuters
03/10/26 08:37
CIBC’s Sid Mokhtari pitches stocks and ETFs to own during this volatile period
-Jennifer Dowty
Heightened volatility in equity markets may persist for months, according to CIBC’s chief market technician Sid Mokhtari.
In a research report published on March 8, he stated, “It is our view that 2026 is a cycle year that should bring about additional volatility between now through to Q3 [third quarter] with stronger historical patterns in Q4”.
Mr. Mokhtari’s technical and quantitative models suggest investors maintain a defensive approach through a barbell strategy, which combines offensive and defensive stocks in a portfolio. His models have been successful at identifying trends and inflection points.
Given his call for near-term choppiness in equity markets, he has taken a balanced approach this month with his basket of top 10 stock ideas for March diversified across six sectors.
He increased the portfolio’s energy exposure to 40 per cent from 30 per cent and added Keyera Corp. (KEY-T), Paramount Resources Ltd. (POU-T) and PrairieSky Royalty Ltd. (PSK-T) to his portfolio. Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. (PEY-T) was carried over from the prior month. The portfolio’s second-largest sector exposure is materials with two stocks, CCL Industries Inc. (CCL-B-T) and Kinross Gold Corp. (K-T). In financials, Trisura Group Ltd. (TSU-T) was included in his basket of top picks. In consumer discretionary, Magna International Inc. (MG-T) was selected. In communication services, Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI-B-T) was added. Lastly, in the utilities sector, ATCO Ltd. (ACO-X-T) was selected.
On March 6, I spoke with Mr. Mokhtari and discussed where he sees investment opportunities.
For the full transcript, click here
03/10/26 08:25
Top picks and biggest issues ahead for AI-related power stocks
- Scott Barlow
Morgan Stanley analyst Stephen Byrd is almost comically bullish on what he calls the “powering AI” investment theme, but he does indicate a note of caution when forecasting the biggest issues ahead for the companies powering the spread of large language models,
“‘Peering Around Corners’ - what are the likely emerging topics that will impact the Powering AI thematic and the stocks driven by this thematic? (1) rising backlash against data center development ranging from concerns with power costs to concerns regarding job loss, (2) data center developers move to provide net grid benefits by providing a one-way connection to the grid (providing power to the grid when called upon, in order to benefit utility customers), (3) surprisingly cheap and effective long duration energy storage coupled with renewables used to power data centers (we recommend investors take a close look at private energy storage company Form Energy and the recent transaction in which Form will help power a Google data center in Minnesota, (4) increasing US strategic importance of achieving AI dominance while not impacting consumer costs (this will become apparent this Spring-Summer, when US LLMs are released that show a step change increase in capabilities), (5) an increase, in urgency, globally, to secure access to compute and data center capacity (also driven by the step change increase in US LLM capabilities), and (6) direct credit support, and in some cases operational involvement, by U.S. hyperscalers in data center and power build-out. Recommended US Powering AI stocks: GE Vernova (GEV), Bloom Energy (BE), TeraWulf (WULF), Cipher Digital (CIFR), Solaris (SEI), Sempra (SRE), Vistra (VST), NextEra Energy (NEE), Talen Energy (TLN), American Electric Power (AEP), FirstEnergy (FE), Cummins (CMI), Eaton (ETN), Vertiv (VRT), Schneider Electric(SCHN.PA), and Siemens Energy AG (ENR1n.DE), EQT (EQT), and Williams (WMB)”.
03/10/26 08:17
Morgan Stanley strategist sees ‘underpriced and increasing risks around U.S. debt and deficits’
- Scott Barlow
Morgan Stanley head of global investment office Lisa Shalett is actively picking stocks but seems to have one eye on the sell button,
“Over the past 80 years, war-induced oil shocks have not been kind to equities, as nearly every episode has catalyzed a recession and market sell-off. Even the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine coincided with a U.S. equity bear market. With that in mind, reaction to the attack on Iran has seemed like a nonevent, with the S&P 500 still within 4 per cent of its all-time high … Although the earnings outlook remains solid, and we are aggressive stock-pickers for now, we see underpriced and increasing risks around US debt and deficits, a still-fragile consumer and potential for nonenergy inflation pressures. Odds of a boom-bust scenario in the next 12 months are rising. This is a time for hyper-vigilance, balancing offence and defence. Consider focusing on earnings realization versus overhyped themes in the U.S., while playing offence with oversold large-cap core equities with quality attributes—including select mega-cap financials, health care, Magnificent Seven and software stocks. Industrials and materials remain cyclical beneficiaries funded by consumer sectors … Even more important than rotation and positioning is the backdrop of energy markets themselves, which have been oversupplied for much of the past four years. The implication is that although Brent crude oil has shot up more than 40 per cent, that’s about half the price action of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 … U.S. Treasuries are already sounding some caution, with two- and 10-year yields up close to 20 basis points over the past week, suggesting possible risks of inflation, overheating growth and renewed pressure on debt and deficits, given the costs of a potentially prolonged conflict. Beyond that, the GIC has been watching the fragile U.S. consumer with a keen eye, noting that while tax refunds are coming, household ability to absorb a jump in gasoline prices at the pump is limited”
03/10/26 08:09
Aramco posts drop in annual profit, announces first buyback
FILE PHOTO: An Aramco tank is seen at Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in Saudi Arabia May 21, 2018.Ahmed Jadallah/Reuters
Saudi Arabia’s Aramco, the world’s top oil exporter, reported a 12-per-cent drop in annual profit mainly due to lower crude prices, but announced it would repurchase up to US$3-billion worth of shares in its first-ever buyback.
The results were released on Tuesday at a highly volatile time for global oil markets as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has led to a near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz and forced several regional producers to curb output.
Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser warned of “catastrophic consequences” for the world’s oil markets if the conflict continued to disrupt traffic through the vital shipping artery.
Aramco, which has been forced to reroute ships to the Red Sea, will conduct the buyback program over the next 18 months. Until now, it has relied on its massive dividend payouts to reward shareholders. It will ultimately sell the repurchased shares back to its employees, CFO Ziad Al-Murshed told analysts on a call.
Oil prices were around 15 per cent lower in 2025 than the previous year at an average of about US$68 a barrel, which has pushed other oil majors such as BP, TotalEnergies and Equinor to remove or slash share buyback programs.
- Reuters
03/10/26 07:59
Strong results continue for Scotia’s recommended stocks in yield-heavy utilities and energy infrastructure sectors
- Scott Barlow
The AltaGas/Vopak joint venture project Ridley Island Energy Export Facility, or REEF, under construction at the Port of Prince Rupert, B.C., is seen in an undated handout photo.HO/The Canadian Press
Middle East situation will not interrupt rally in income oriented utilities and energy infrastructure sectors, says Scotiabank’s Robert Hope,,
“On balance, Q4/25 results showcased a highly robust infrastructure sector, with the majority of our coverage universe exceeding estimates. Following the quarter, consensus estimates moved up for the utility and midstream groups and down for the remainder of our coverage sub-sectors. ACO.X-T, CU-T, BEP-N, GEI-T and NPI-T saw the most meaningful positive estimate revisions. The key take-away for us from the quarter is that the opportunity set for the infrastructure group continues to deepen. The utility group is adding to their capital plans, power companies are making progress on securing data center off-take agreements, and the pipeline group is seeing demand for natural gas move higher. Management teams remain disciplined and are allocating capital to projects with the best risk-adjusted returns. Oil pricing has moved higher following the start of Operation Epic Fury. We see KEY-T, ALA-T and PPL-T as benefiting most from higher pricing over the medium term, though we have not yet adjusted our estimates. While interest rates have increased we note the utility group is holding in as investors look to defensive sectors.
“Our overall favourite names are ALA-T, AQN-N, BIP-N, CPX-T, ENB-T, KEY-T and TRP-T.”
03/10/26 07:52
Iran conflict interrupts recovery in global industrial stocks
- Scott Barlow
The RBC global equity team published a report emphasizing the Iran situation is threatening the usual course of the market cycle,
“Prior to the Feb-28 start of the Iran conflict, there had been a number of cyclical rallies year-to-date across the industrial sub-sectors. There were encouraging short-cycle greenshoots like the ISM/New Orders seeing their second month above 50 and industrial distributors like FAST reporting 13-per-cent growth in Feb. But with the escalation of the Middle East conflict, we have seen a textbook-style rotation into defensive/quality names in the past week, begging the question how sustainable the cyclical rally will be amid geopolitical angst, spiking oil prices, a new Fed Chair, re-cast tariffs, and supply chain volatility. CEO confidence could be an early casualty if the war with Iran drags on, resulting in project delays/cancellations … North America auto production is estimated to be down roughly 1.5-2.0 per cent this year, compared to a flattish China and slightly positive Europe on pent- up demand … Chemicals and Commodities are also seeing investors bidding up the sector, with investors historically buying the group way well before earnings recoveries materialize. Since the Iran conflict, higher-quality and Commodities companies have outperformed. Industrials on the RBC Top 30 Global Ideas for 2026 List. United States: DuPont, Moody’s, Xylem, Air Products and Chemicals. Europe: Safran, Schneider. Canada: RB Global, International Paper”
03/10/26 07:42
Gold rises 1% on easing inflation worries, dollar at one-week low
Gold rose 1 per cent on Tuesday, as inflation fears receded after oil fell following U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks that the Middle East war could “end soon”, while a weaker U.S. dollar and easing Treasury yields also provided support.
Spot gold rose 0.8 per cent to US$5,178.60 per ounce, as of 7:17 a.m. ET, after gaining over 1 per cent earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for April delivery rose 1.7 per cent to US$5,188.60.
“The recovery in the stock markets also ended up providing respite for gold because of less margin requirements elsewhere, while a lower U.S. dollar and easing Treasury yields are definitely positive for gold markets (today) as well,” said Ricardo Evangelista, ActivTrades analyst.
Stocks rallied, and oil prices plunged by more than 7 per cent after Trump’s remarks, easing concerns about prolonged disruptions to global oil supplies.
- Reuters
03/10/26 06:31
Elon Musk’s SpaceX weighs Nasdaq listing after seeking early index entry
A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifts off carrying Starlink V2 Mini satellites into low Earth orbit from the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Cape Canaveral, Florida on May 14, 2025.Joe Skipper/Reuters
Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite maker SpaceX is leaning toward listing its shares on the Nasdaq for what could rank as the biggest initial public offering of all time, according to four people familiar with the company’s thinking.
SpaceX wants early inclusion on the Nasdaq 100 index , making it a necessary condition for a potential listing on the tech-heavy exchange, two of the people said. Its plans could still change, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the discussions are confidential.
Reuters has previously reported that SpaceX is planning an IPO, as early as June.
The New York Stock Exchange is also competing for the listing, and neither exchange has been informed of a decision either way, multiple people said.
The Nasdaq 100, owned by Nasdaq Inc, is seen as a premier blue-chip index by large institutional investors and serves as a barometer for the health of most of the world’s biggest publicly traded names, including megacap technology stocks like Nvidia, Apple and Amazon.com.
The Nasdaq 100 gained about 21 per cent last year and is slightly lower so far this year. Nasdaq proposed a new rule last month that could potentially speed up the addition of newly listed megacap companies to the Nasdaq 100 index.
Read more: Here
- Reuters
03/10/26 06:27
Wall Street futures rise on hopes for early end to Middle East conflict
U.S. stock index futures ticked up on Tuesday, as investors hoped for a quicker resolution to the Middle East conflict that has led to a spike in energy prices and stoked inflation concerns, following President Donald Trump’s comments on the war.
Crude and natural gas prices eased from the worrying US$120 per barrel mark after Trump said on Monday that the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran could be nearing an end, ahead of his initial estimate of a four-to-five-week timeline.
However, the enthusiasm came with an element of caution as Iran said it would continue its oil blockade through the region, to which Trump promised stronger military retaliation. Energy producers in the Middle East are yet to resume production full-scale and shipping costs are likely to be elevated for a while.
Still, lower energy prices on Tuesday came as a relief to beaten-down travel stocks. Airlines American and Delta gained over 1 per cent each in premarket trading, while cruise companies Carnival and Royal Caribbean were marginally higher.
Energy companies such as Occidental lost 2.5 per cent, while ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil were marginally lower.
Surging crude prices since the start of the conflict had worried investors that the U.S. economy could face stagflation and complicate the work of the Federal Reserve, as data also suggested the labor market was weakening.
Traders have priced in a potential 25 basis point rate cut around September, according to LSEG-compiled data.
At 5:14 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 211 points, or 0.44 per cent, S&P 500 E-minis were up 29.75 points, or 0.44 per cent. Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 134.25 points, or 0.54 per cent.
- Reuters
03/10/26 06:24
Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square files for U.S. IPO
Bill Ackman, Founder and CEO, Pershing Square Capital Management, attends the 28th annual Milken Institute Global Conference at the Beverly Hilton in Beverly Hills, California on May 6, 2025.PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP/Getty Images
Billionaire investor Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square filed for U.S. initial public offerings of his hedge fund and a new fund on Tuesday, looking set to join a small club of publicly traded alternative asset managers.
The move marks a major milestone for Ackman, the activist investor who has established himself as one of Wall Street’s most-watched investors. He is known for pushing for changes in companies such as Chipotle Mexican Grill and railroad Canadian Pacific.
Ackman previously attempted to take the new fund, Pershing Square USA, public in 2024, but scrapped the launch days before it was slated to begin trading.
Investors in the new fund will receive 20 shares in Pershing Square for every 100 shares purchased in the new fund as a sweetener.
Pershing Square USA currently expects to raise between US$5-billion and US$10-billion in the combined transaction. It is selling shares at US$50 apiece.
The fund has secured US$2.8-billion in commitments from U.S. and international institutional investors such as family offices, pension funds, insurance companies, and ultra-high-net-worth investors.
Pershing Square will list on the New York Stock Exchange under the trading symbol “PS”.
- Reuters
03/10/26 06:07
TSX futures edge up as gold gains counter sharp pullback in oil prices
Canadian stock index futures edged higher on Tuesday, as a rally in gold cushioned the falling oil prices after President Trump suggested the Middle East war may soon wind down, keeping investors wary in the resource-heavy market.
March futures on S&P/TSX composite index gained 0.4 per cent, as of 5:57 a.m. ET.
U.S. stock futures edged up Tuesday as hopes for a quicker Middle East conflict resolution eased energy-driven inflation fears.
Toronto’s benchmark index closed higher yesterday after briefly hitting its lowest intraday level since February 6.
- Reuters
03/10/26 05:50
Before the Bell: What every Canadian investor needs to know today
- S.R. Slobodian
Global markets rallied as investor sentiment was lifted after U.S. President Donald Trump said the war in Middle East could come to a quick end.
But hopes of a speedy resolution to the conflict were tempered by defiant statements from Iran’s military indicating it would continue fighting.
Wall Street futures were in positive territory after major North American markets closed up yesterday on Trump’s comments.
TSX futures followed sentiment higher.
In Canada, investors are getting results from Transcontinental Inc. and Altius Minerals Corp.
On Wall Street, markets are watching earnings from Oracle Corp. and Franco-Nevada Corp.
“The toning down of President Trump’s rhetoric, from demanding full surrender to declaring the mission ‘very complete’, is a welcome development that should help settle nerves for today’s session in Asia, at least,” said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG in Sydney.
Read more: Here
03/10/26 05:33
Global shares surge, echoing a rally on Wall Street
A stock broker monitors share prices on a digital board at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) in Karachi on Tuesday.RIZWAN TABASSUM/AFP/Getty Images
Global shares rebounded Tuesday from their sharp declines a day before as global investors wagered that the war with Iran may not last too long.
But the gains fell far short of losses Monday, when oil prices neared US$120 per barrel before falling back to about US$90. U.S. shares were set to rise, with Dow futures up 0.4 per cent at 47,970.00. S&P 500 futures rose 0.4 per cent to 6,830.75.
Helping to assuage investors’ fears, U.S. President Donald Trump told CBS News he thinks “the war is very complete, pretty much.” He also made other comments that seemed to threaten intensified action against Iran if it makes any “attempt to stop the globe’s oil supply.”
France’s CAC 40 added 1.9 per cent in early trading to 54,248.39, while Germany’s DAX surged 2.4 per cent to 23,966.97. Britain’s FTSE 100 gained 1.6 per cent to 10,410.08.
In Asia, Tokyo’s benchmark Nikkei 225 added 2.9 per cent to finish at 54,248.39 after the government released revised economic data that showed Japan’s economy grew slightly faster than initially estimated in the final quarter of last year, boosted by solid business investments.
The economy expanded at an annual pace of 1.3 per cent. The initial estimate was a much weaker 0.2 per cent.
“Today is the rebound, obviously positive comments from President Trump overnight, we’re starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel for the war,“ said Neil Newman, a managing director and head of strategy at Astris Advisory Japan.
”So volatility is going to remain with us but things are certainly looking a lot brighter today,” he said.
- The Associated Press
03/10/26 05:08
U.S. dollar rally stalls on hopes of an easing in Iran war, but wariness reigns
The U.S. dollar took a breather on Tuesday as investors swung between hopes for a de-escalation in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and concerns that any such optimism could be premature.
U.S. President Donald Trump said the war could end well before the timeline he initially laid out, but threatened to escalate attacks should Tehran block oil shipments from the Strait of Hormuz.
In response, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards dismissed Trump’s remarks as “nonsense” and said the blockade would continue until attacks from the U.S. and Israel end.
However, equities advanced and oil prices retreated from over three-year highs, underscoring how eager investors were to seize on any hint of good news.
The safe-haven dollar weakened 0.1 per cent to $1.1652 against the euro and 0.1 per cent to 157.49 yen. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six peers, fell 0.3 per cent to a one-week low of 98.6.
“What will matter most is a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a restart of production across the Middle East. Until investors receive headlines on that score, we doubt the dollar is going to quickly hand back all the gains made over the last two weeks,” said ING’s global head of markets Chris Turner.
- Reuters
03/10/26 05:04
Oil sinks 7% as Trump predicts Middle East de-escalation
Oil prices plummeted 7% on Tuesday after soaring to a more than three-year high in the previous session as U.S. President Donald Trump predicted the war in the Middle East could end soon, easing concerns about prolonged disruptions to oil supplies.
Brent futures fell US$6.79, or 6.9 per cent, to US$92.17 a barrel at 4:40 a.m. ET, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down US$6.55, or 6.9 per cent, to US$88.22 a barrel. Both contracts fell as much as 11 per cent earlier before paring some losses.
Oil surged past US$100 a barrel on Monday to the highest since mid-2022, as supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and other producers during the expanding U.S.-Israeli war on Iran stoked fears of major disruptions to global supplies.
Prices later retreated after Russian President Vladimir Putin held a call with Trump and shared proposals aimed at a quick settlement to the war, according to a Kremlin aide, easing concerns about supply.
Trump said on Monday in a CBS News interview that he thought the war against Iran was “very complete” and Washington was “very far ahead” of his initial four- to five-week estimated time frame.
“Clearly Trump’s comments about a short-lived war have calmed markets. While there was an overreaction to the upside yesterday, we think there is an overreaction to the downside today,” said Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank, adding that the market was underappreciating risks at these levels for Brent.
“Murban and Dubai grades are still well above $100 per barrel, so practically nothing much has changed in terms of ground realities,” he added, referring to benchmark Middle Eastern oil grades.
- Reuters