Markets update
- Wall Street ended sharply higher, fueled by gains in AI-related stocks, as oil prices fell. The S&P 500 climbed 1.01% to end the session at 6,699.38 points, its strongest one-day gain in over a month. The Nasdaq gained 1.22% to 22,374.18 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.83% to 46,946.41 points. All of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes rose.
- The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 1.03% at 32,876.65 points, its biggest daily gain since Feb. 26, before the Middle East conflict began. The pullback in oil prices lifted broader risk appetite, with all sectors on the TSX trading higher. Even energy stocks closed up 0.64%, after hitting their highest level since September 2008 in the previous session.
- Oil prices slid after some vessels sailed through the critical Strait of Hormuz, even as U.S. allies rebuffed President Donald Trump’s call for help in unblocking the strait, and as the head of the IEA suggested more reserves could be released to stem the rising costs caused by the Iran war. Brent futures fell US$2.93, or 2.8%, to settle at US$100.21 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell US$5.21, or 5.3%, to settle at US$93.50.
- The loonie was trading 0.3% higher at 73.13 U.S. cents. Canadian government 10-year bond yields fell 7.1 basis points to 3.437%. The U.S. 10-year yield fell by a similar degree.
- U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled 1.2% lower at $5,002.20.
03/16/26 17:00
Fertilizer prices - and this Canadian dividend stock - have been rallying on the Iran war
- Gordon Pape
Oil isn’t the only commodity that’s been hit by the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. The world’s fertilizer supplies are also among the casualties.
About one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade, or 16 million tonnes per year, passes through the narrow waterway. Like oil, that’s now reduced to zero.
The main producing countries, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, have all come under fire from Iran as the war rages. With the strait closed, fertilizer prices are moving higher.
The world hasn’t taken much notice yet, but farmers, who are now preparing for spring planting, are already feeling the squeeze. Grocery store customers will experience it as new crops come to market.
The recent potash spot price was US$372.50 per tonne, representing a roughly 17-per-cent increase year-over-year. That’s a long way from the highs of over US$1,200 reached in April, 2022, but the price is expected to increase significantly as the impact of the strait’s closing takes hold.
Canada exports about half of its fertilizer output and up to 90 per cent of its potash to the United States. That makes us an alternative for buyers whose Middle East supplies are cut off, providing supply chain disruptions can be overcome.
The world’s largest producer of agricultural fertilizers is Saskatchewan’s Nutrien Corp. (NTR-T). I provide an update here.
03/16/26 16:18
Beyond Meat delays annual report over inventory control issues
Beyond Meat (BYND-Q) late Monday forecast fourth-quarter revenue below Wall Street estimates, and said it would delay filing its annual report for 2025 citing material weakness in its internal financial controls.
Shares of the company fell about 5% in extended trading.
The plant-based meat maker said it needed additional time to complete a review of its inventory balances, including amounts recorded for excess and obsolete inventory. It expects to file its Form 10-K with the securities regulator by March 31.
The company said it is reviewing its internal control procedures and is in the process of developing a remediation plan.
Beyond Meat reported preliminary revenue of about US$61 million for the fourth quarter, while analysts were expecting US$62.6 million, as per data compiled by LSEG.
The company also sees full-year 2025 net revenue of about $275 million, compared with estimates of $276.5 million.
Beyond Meat said it has not determined the potential impact of its inventory review on its financial statements.
- Reuters
03/16/26 15:41
Nvidia CEO Huang sees at least US$1 trillion of AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said that revenue opportunity for its advanced AI chips totaled at least US$1 trillion through 2027 at the chipmaker’s annual developer conference in San Jose, California.
The figure signals Huang’s confidence that Nvidia can remain the biggest player in the market for AI chips amid growing competition and investor doubts about whether its strategy of plowing back its profits into the AI ecosystem is paying off.
Huang did not offer more details on the forecast. But it marks a big step up from the around US$500 billion revenue opportunity for 2026 Nvidia had reiterated at its last earnings call.
Shares of Nvidia (NVDA-Q) briefly jumped on the news but pared those gains to last trade up 1.4%.
- Reuters
03/16/26 14:28
This is what markets are predicting for the future path of crude oil prices
- Darcy Keith
Kevin Hassett, Donald Trump’s national economic council director, was interviewed on CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday and noted how futures markets are pointing to a big decline in energy prices later this year.
“If you look at the futures prices, they are expecting a rapid, rapid end to the situation and much, much lower prices. In fact, I don’t think I’ve seen a sort of future price path with such a steep decline in all my years watching futures,” said Hassett.
We noted on Friday how commodity futures are a useful indicator of what market players are anticipating for prices.
The futures curve plots upcoming delivery dates for a commodity and what prices may look like in any month.
And indeed, futures markets are suggesting a steep decline for both West Texas Intermediate crude oil and gasoline prices.
The April WTI contract is currently near US$94.15. As the chart shows, traders expect the commodity to be on the decline each month thereafter, reaching US$75.11 by the end of this year (that’s the current trading price of the December futures contract).
The crude oil futures market is in backwardation right now, meaning nearer-term months are more expensive than further out on the curve. It signals a market that is in tight supply, not the more common “contango” condition when the price of a futures contract is more expensive than near-term prices, mostly owing to the cost of storing and insuring a commodity.
Of course, traders are constantly trading and recalibrating their positions to account for fresh news and data. This is only a snapshot in time.
03/16/26 14:15
Carnival could be hardest hit cruise line from surging oil costs
Cruise operators face choppy waters as rising oil prices lift fuel costs, with analysts warning Carnival Corp CCL-N could take the biggest hit to its 2026 profit as it is the only major U.S. cruise line that does not hedge fuel.
Cruise lines, which rely on heavy fuel oil and marine gas oil among other fuel types, turn to hedging to lock in prices via financial contracts and protect against sudden swings.
However, Carnival Corp in the U.S. is an exception.
A 10-per-cent change in fuel cost per metric ton would reduce Carnival’s 2026 net income by US$145-million, compared with US$57-million for rival Royal Caribbean, according to the latest company filings.
Norwegian Cruise Line NCLH-N said it has not updated its fuel hedges from its earnings from early March and the 10-per-cent change would cut full-year profit per share by 7 cents. This is equivalent to a roughly US$90-million fall in net income, according to calculations by Morningstar Research.
Royal Caribbean RCL-N did not respond to a Reuters query.
- Reuters
03/16/26 13:36
Looking for bargain stocks with cash flow? Consider this strategy
- Norman Rothery
Investors should have a plan when it comes to the markets, and it might include having a few TSX stocks from the Free Cash portfolio, which looks for bargains with lots of free cash flow.
The portfolio has been a big grower with average annual gains of 16.9 per cent over the 26 years through to the end of February, 2026.
Read my column today to learn more about the strategy, and click here to see stocks that are now in the portfolio.
03/16/26 13:28
Bond investors load up on short-term U.S. Treasuries
Bond investors have shifted to a defensive stance since the Middle East war injected fresh risk into markets, with many loading up on short-term U.S. Treasuries ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision.
On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to keep its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range at the end of a two-day meeting, as policymakers assess how the Iran war may influence their dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.
Even with the heightened caution, many investors still believe the conflict will remain short-lived and contained, which is likely to limit the impact of higher oil prices on inflation.
Stable consumer prices could give the Federal Reserve room to cut interest rates later in the year, some investors say, which could spark a rally across U.S. Treasuries and much of the broader debt market. For now though, the combination of geopolitical tensions, sticky inflation and a weakening labor market has muddied the market’s view on the Fed’s policy direction, portfolio managers say. The uncertainty has also prompted some investors to stay away from longer-term bonds until there is more visibility on how the conflict unfolds and the central bank response.
“Investors are more cautiously positioned and have avoided riskier parts of the bond market,” said Danny Zaid, portfolio manager at TwentyFour Asset Management.
“Volatility in rates is going to continue to be high. We continue to be neutral in duration at least until we get more clarity on the conflict.”
- Reuters
03/16/26 13:21
BIS urges central banks not to rush reactions to energy price spike
The body that advises the world’s central banks has urged policymakers not to rush reactions to the Iran crisis-driven spike in global energy prices, calling it a textbook case of when to “look through” a supply shock, if it proves temporary.
This month’s 40% surge in oil prices and near 60% leap in wholesale gas prices have evoked comparisons to 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the post-COVID reopening of the global economy sent inflation rates soaring. Leading central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank raised interest rates to their highest levels in decades, but were criticized for reacting too slowly after mistakenly judging the impact would be transitory.
This time, financial markets have been quick to reprice expectations, betting central bankers won’t want to make the same mistake again, although the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) used its latest report to urge caution.
“If it’s a supply shock, and certainly if it’s a temporary one, these are the textbook examples where you should look through and not react with monetary policy,” the central bank umbrella group’s top economic advisor, Hyun Song Shin, said. “It really depends on how long the conflict lasts and how long the rise in the oil price will be sustained.”
- Reuters
03/16/26 13:11
Pakistan-bound oil tanker passes through Hormuz Strait amid Iran war
Ship-tracking data shows a Pakistan-bound oil tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, indicating that some countries are able to negotiate safe passage for their vessels despite the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
Since the war began more than two weeks ago, Iran has attacked several ships in the Gulf, in effect closing the strait, conduit for a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas, and driving up global energy prices.
Iran has, however, let some vessels through. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that the U.S. believed some Indian and Chinese as well as Iranian fuel tankers had passed through the strait.
The Kpler data provider MarineTraffic said the Karachi was “the first non-Iranian cargo to transit the chokepoint while broadcasting its AIS signal, suggesting that select shipments may be receiving negotiated safe passage” in a post on X.
- Reuters
03/16/26 12:57
Trump says some countries are not enthusiastic about helping unblock Hormuz strait
President Donald Trump on Monday repeated his call to nations to help unblock the Strait of Hormuz, and appeared to criticize countries he said were not enthusiastic about providing aid.
Trump wants nations to help police the strait after Iran responded to U.S.-Israeli attacks by using drones, missiles and mines to effectively close the channel for tankers that usually transport a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas.
“Some are very enthusiastic about it, and some aren’t. Some are countries that we’ve helped for many, many years. We’ve protected them from horrible outside sources, and they weren’t that enthusiastic. And the level of enthusiasm matters to me,” Trump said at an event at the White House.
Several U.S. allies said on Monday they had no immediate plans to send ships to unblock the Strait of Hormuz.
- Reuters
03/16/26 11:28
TSX inches up as retreating oil prices lift market sentiment
Canada’s main stock index inched higher on Monday, after three sessions of declines, as investors took cues from Wall Street and welcomed a pullback in oil prices, even as the war in the Middle East raged on.
At 12 p.m. ET, the S&P/TSX composite index was up 238.17 points, or 0.74 per cent, at 32,780.10. The index is on track for its biggest daily gain since Feb. 26, before the conflict began.
Oil prices retreated amid attacks on Gulf oil production and U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for a global effort to secure the Strait of Hormuz, though both crude benchmarks remain up more than 40% this month, and are at their highest levels since 2022.
The pullback in oil prices lifted broader risk appetite, with all sectors on the TSX trading higher. Even energy stocks rose 0.4 per cent, after hitting their highest level since September 2008 in the previous session.
“Due to fears of oil-induced inflation and a potential global slowdown, stocks are currently inversely correlated with oil prices... This coupling is temporary and provides an opportunity to investors to increase selective stock exposure at favorable valuations,” said Richard Saperstein, chief investment officer, Treasury Partners.
As a net oil exporter, Canada may be better shielded than many peers from the conflict-driven oil spike, offering some cushion as other indicators cool.
Meanwhile, information technology stocks were up 1.7 per cent, tracking robust gains on the tech-heavy U.S. Nasdaq. Shares of miners rose 1.5 per cent, even as metal prices vacillated between gains and losses.
- Reuters
03/16/26 11:28
U.S. manufacturing output increases; homebuilder sentiment ticks up
U.S. factory production increased marginally in February as manufacturing remained constrained by tariffs on imports, and the conflict in the Middle East could raise operating costs.
Other data on Monday showed sentiment among single-family homebuilders nudging up in March. Manufacturing and the housing market have been hardest hit by higher interest rates and President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, with business leaders and builders saying the duties had increased costs.
Trump has defended the tariffs, which have been struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court, as necessary to protect domestic manufacturing, though about 100,000 factory jobs have been lost since January 2025.
“The tariffs have failed to provide a substantial ‘reshoring boost’ to the sector so far, with the lift from reduced foreign competition apparently mostly offset by higher input costs, supply chain disruption, and the hit to investment demand from uncertainty around trade policy,” said Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Manufacturing output rose 0.2 per cent last month after an upwardly revised 0.8-per-cent gain in January, the Federal Reserve said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast production for the sector, which accounts for 10.1 per cent of the economy, rising 0.1 per cent after a previously reported 0.6-per-cent rise in January. Production at factories advanced 1.3 per cent year on year in February.
Motor vehicle production increased 1.7 per cent after surging 2.4 per cent in January. There were also solid gains in the output of computer and electronic products as well as electrical equipment, appliances and components, likely reflecting an artificial intelligence spending boom.
Separately, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market index increased one point to 38 in March, remaining below the 50 break-even point for 23 straight months. The slight improvement in sentiment likely reflected lower mortgage rates at the start of the year after Trump ordered government-backed mortgage firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to expand purchases of mortgage-backed securities.
- Reuters
03/16/26 11:11
BofA raises 2026 Brent price forecast as Hormuz closure tightens supply
Bank of America raised its Brent crude oil forecast for 2026 to US$77.50 a barrel from US$61, citing tight supply caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flow.
The bank said Brent could trade at US$70 a barrel if a quick resolution were found and oil flows normalize by April. However, if the disruption extends into the second half of the year, Brent could average as high as $130 a barrel, a scenario it described as unlikely.
U.S. allies said they had no immediate plans to send ships to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, rebuffing a request by U.S. President Donald Trump for military support to keep the waterway open.
Brent crude futures were down 92 US cents at US$102.22 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down US$3.45, or 3.5 per cent, to $95.26.
Other major brokerages have also revised their average oil price forecasts for 2026 as the Middle East conflict enters its third week, after the fighting drove oil prices up nearly 40 per cent this month.
Israel said it has detailed plans for at least three more weeks of war as its military pounded sites across Iran overnight, while Iranian drone attacks temporarily shut Dubai airport and hit an oil facility in the United Arab Emirates.
- Reuters
03/16/26 10:38
Ed Yardeni on why oil is lower today and markets are rallying
- Darcy Keith
Markets are much calmer this morning as oil prices slide about 5 per cent, despite no clear signs yet of when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.
Why the complacency in financial markets as the new week gets underway?
Veteran Wall Street analyst Ed Yardeni is offering some guesses in his morning note today:
“They might be discounting a short war notwithstanding the recent escalation of the war. They may also be anticipating that oil will leak out of the Persian Gulf and more oil will be provided from other sources. The bottom line is that the oil market has lost about 9-10 mbd of physical supply—roughly equivalent to losing one Saudi Arabia. It’s the largest disruption in history, but it is 50 per cent less than the amount widely cited as the risk, i.e., the 20 per cent of global consumption that typically passes through the Strait. That might explain why the energy and financial markets aren’t in panic mode.”
Yardeni notes this “leakage” allows for a fairly significant amount of oil to still reach market.
“There is significant “bypass” infrastructure currently operating at maximum capacity to circumvent the Strait. Saudi Arabia’s Petroline is an East-West pipeline that can move up to 7mbd to the Red Sea. Current estimates show it is pushing roughly 5mbd into the market. The United Arab Emirates’ ADCOP Pipeline bypasses the Strait to the port of Fujairah, carrying roughly 1.5mbd. These two routes alone “save” at least 6.5mbd that would otherwise be stranded,” he said.
Another point Yardeni brings up is that global demand is likely softening for crude, offsetting some of the price pressure from decreased supplies.
“Global demand isn’t static. High prices and the war itself are already destroying demand. The IEA recently cut March/April demand forecasts by 1mbd due to massive flight cancellations in the Middle East and industrial slowdowns in Asia. Before the war started in February, the market was facing a 1.5mbd surplus. That surplus acts as a buffer that must be burned through before a true physical shortage occurs.”
03/16/26 10:35
Household debt-to-income ratio rose in Q4 for fifth straight quarter: StatCan
Statistics Canada says the amount Canadians owed relative to their income climbed for the fifth consecutive quarter.
The agency says the ratio of household credit market debt as a proportion of disposable income rose to 177.2 per cent in the fourth quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis.
In other words, Statistics Canada says there was $1.77 in credit market debt for every dollar of household disposable income in the fourth quarter.
The household debt service ratio — measured as total obligated payments of principal and interest on credit market debt as a proportion of household disposable income — edged down to 14.57 per cent in the fourth quarter, from 14.61 per cent in the third quarter.
The results came as the pace of household credit market borrowing eased slightly to a seasonally adjusted $36.2 billion in the fourth quarter, from $33.5-billion in the previous quarter.
Mortgage demand rose to $28.7-billion from $23.4-billion in the third quarter, while demand for non-mortgage debt fell to $7.5-billion from $10.6-billion in the third quarter.
- The Canadian Press
03/16/26 09:35
TSX flat at open; fall in oil prices lifts risk appetite
Canada’s main stock index opened flat on Monday with optimism from Wall Street and a pullback in oil prices, despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, on track to lift broader risk appetite.
At 9:31 a.m. ET, the S&P/TSX composite index was up 0.08 per cent at 32,569.06 points.
Wall Street’s main indexes opened higher on Monday with shares of Meta among the top gainers after a report said the megacap was prepping for sweeping AI-related layoffs, even as elevated crude prices due to the raging Middle East conflict kept risk-taking in check.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 148.9 points, or 0.32 per cent, at the open to 46,707.4. The S&P 500 rose 42.2 points, or 0.64 per cent, to 6,674.37, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 235.0 points, or 1.06 per cent, to 22,340.388.
- Reuters
03/16/26 09:20
What economists are saying about this morning’s inflation report and what it means for BoC policy
- Darcy Keith
Here’s what economists are saying about this morning’s inflation reading for Canada, which came in at 1.8 per cent for February versus Street expectations of 1.9 per cent.
Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins
“Most importantly, the Bank of Canada’s preferred measures of inflation looked very tame, signalling that underlying inflationary pressures were soft once again in February. The average of the core median and trimmed mean metrics was up just 0.09 per cent, leaving the three-month annualized rate decelerating to 1.0 per cent from 1.2 per cent in January.”
“The latest inflation data reinforce our view that underlying inflation was very weak heading into the oil price shock. As a result, the Bank of Canada should be able to look through the rise in energy prices for some time. We continue to believe that central bankers will leave rates unchanged until well into 2027. With the economy on shaky ground at the moment, officials may want to push back against market pricing for more than one full rate hike this year.”
Bradley Saunders, North America Economist, Capital Economics
“The further moderation in core inflation in February joins last month’s weak Labour Force Survey as a reason to think the Bank of Canada will not move to hike rates anytime soon despite the evolving energy crisis.”
“This supports our view that core inflation will return to the Bank’s 2-per-cent target by the middle of the year, months sooner than was projected in the latest Monetary Policy Report, although the risk of second-round effects from the jump in oil prices means that the Bank will be in no mood to consider loosening policy further.”
Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets
“Inflation was a tad tamer than even our below-consensus forecast in February. And while this release has a stale feel, since gasoline prices have since surged more than 15 per cent just since the end of last month, it clearly shows that underlying inflation was decelerating notably in early 2026. With most measures of core inflation close to the Bank’s 2-per-cent target, policymakers can more readily ‘look through’ the oil-driven spike that is surely coming to headline inflation in the next few months. And that is particularly the case with employment weakening even before the war, and the uncertain fate of the USMCA still looming.”
03/16/26 09:17
Nvidia CEO set to reveal new chips and software at AI megaconference GTC
Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang speaks during the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Wednesday, Jan. 21, 2026.Markus Schreiber/The Associated Press
Nvidia (NVDA-Q) CEO Jensen Huang is set to detail the company’s hardware and software plans to a large crowd in San Jose, California, at the company’s annual developer conference on Monday.
During a keynote address at a hockey arena with a capacity of more than 18,000, Huang is expected to lay out how the top AI chipmaker plans to adapt to a rapidly changing AI landscape.
Nvidia, the world’s most valuable listed company, with a market capitalization of more than US$4.3-trillion, is likely to detail a next-generation AI chip called Feynman, named after American physicist Richard Feynman, at the four-day conference.
Huang is also likely to talk about data centers, Nvidia’s chip programming software CUDA, digital assistants known as AI agents and physical AI such as robots.
Another focus is likely to be Groq, a chip startup from which Nvidia licensed technology for US$17-billion in December. Groq specializes in fast and cheap “inference” computing work, in which an AI model takes what it has already learned and uses it to answer a question or make a prediction in real time.
Huang’s keynote is set for 11 a.m. Pacific Time (2 p.m. Eastern Time).
- Reuters
03/16/26 08:32
Canada’s annual inflation rate eases to 1.8% on base year effect
Canada’s annual inflation rate fell to 1.8 per cent in February, driven by base year effect as prices in the same period a year ago had risen sharply after the government’s sales tax relief ended, Statistics Canada said on Monday.
Excluding the effect of indirect taxes, the Consumer Price Index rose 1.9 per cent year over year in February, it said.
The inflation data for March will be the final month affected by the base-year effect of the sales tax break.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected inflation to fall to 1.9 per cent year-over-year in February from 2.3 per cent in January, and 0.7 per cent month-over-month compared with no change in the prior month.
On a monthly basis consumer prices rose by 0.5 per cent in February, StatsCan said.
The inflation data comes as the Bank of Canada has held its key policy rate at 2.25 per cent, as inflation stabilized around its 2-per-cent target within a 1-3-per-cent control range
- Reuters
03/16/26 08:07
BIS urges central banks not to overreact to energy price spike
The body that advises the world’s central banks has urged policymakers not to overreact to the Iran crisis-driven spike in global energy prices, calling it a textbook case of when to “look through” a shock, especially if it proves temporary.
This month’s 40-per-cent surge in oil prices and near 60-per-cent leap in wholesale gas prices have evoked comparisons to 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the post-COVID reopening of the global economy sent inflation rates soaring.
Leading central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank raised interest rates to their highest levels in decades, but were criticised for reacting too slowly after mistakenly judging the impact would be transitory.
This time, financial markets have been quick to reprice expectations, betting central banks won’t want to make the same mistake again, although the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) used its latest report to urge caution.
“If it’s a supply shock, and certainly if it’s a temporary one, these are the textbook examples where you should look through and not react with monetary policy,” the central bank umbrella group’s top economic advisor, Hyun Song Shin, said.
The comments come at the start of a crucial week for markets with the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan all holding their first meetings since the Middle East crisis erupted on February 28.
- Reuters
03/16/26 08:06
Meta shares jump after report on plans for layoffs of 20% or more
Meta Platforms (META-Q) shares rose 3 per cent on Monday following a Reuters report that the social media giant plans to lay off 20 per cent or more of its workforce to offset heavy spending on artificial intelligence and bet on productivity gains from the technology.
If Meta settles on the 20-per-cent figure, the cuts will be the biggest since a late 2022 and early 2023 restructuring it dubbed the “year of efficiency,” which eliminated around 21,000 jobs.
After falling behind in the AI race, Meta has spent heavily in recent years to catch up by building data centers and waging a talent war. It expects a capital outlay of up to US$135-billion in 2026, roughly double of last year’s spending.
The expenditure is meant to secure the cloud capacity needed to train and run AI models, and Meta will spend up to US$27-billion for such services from Nebius under a deal on Monday.
While the spending has powered improvements in Meta’s ad-tools and boosted sales, it has yet to roll out an AI model that can challenge industry leaders OpenAI, Anthropic and Google.
Meta has been working on a new model called Avocado, but the performance of that model has also lagged expectations.
A 20-per-cent staff cut could amount to about US$6-billion in cost savings, or a 5-per-cent boost to adjusted core earnings, Rosenblatt Securities analyst Barton Crockett said.
“This doesn’t have to stop at 20 per cent. There could be more down the road if AI is truly this impactful on staff productivity.”
- Reuters
03/16/26 08:05
Hedge funds ‘aggressively’ short financial stocks, says Goldman
A screen displays the the company logo for Goldman Sachs on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 7, 2025.Brendan McDermid/Reuters
Global hedge funds sold shares of bank, insurance, fin-tech and trading companies in the week to March 13, making financials the most sold stock sector this year, said Goldman Sachs in a note to clients seen by Reuters on Monday.
Hedge funds “aggressively shorted” global financial stocks last week and the sector was net sold internationally, the note said.
A short bet profits when asset values decline.
S&P’s financials index has fallen over 11 per cent this year while an index of banks in Europe is down around 8 per cent. The moves come as the sector, alongside broader markets, faces selling pressure on concerns about the impact of the Middle East war on the global economy and concern that the connection between financial firms and private lending could be more closely entwined than previously thought.
A recent Moody’s report showed U.S. banks had lent nearly US$300-billion to private credit providers as of June 2025. JPMorgan Chase reduced the value of some loans to private credit funds after reviewing the impact of market turmoil around software companies, Reuters reported last week following an FT report.
“When a large institution like JPM (JPMorgan) starts marking deals lower, markets pay attention because it raises the possibility that others may eventually have to follow,” said Bruno Schneller, managing director at Erlen Capital Management. “If investors worry the marks across the system could move, the easiest way to hedge that risk is through liquid proxies like banks, insurers and financial indices,” added Schnellerm who added that short positions in financial stocks might be less a view on the banks themselves than a hedge against credit risk across the broader financial system.
This might also add a way for speculators to recession-proof their portfolios, he said.
- Reuters
03/16/26 08:02
Proposed U.S. gas-fired power plants reinforce LNG demand outlook
- Scott Barlow
CIBC analyst Jamie Kubik’s survey of the natural gas sector includes signs of higher demand from new gas-fired power plants in the U.S.,
“An LNG carrier remains docked in Kitimat, suggesting the facility is likely to restart shortly … The recent increase in oil prices, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, could lead to increased activity levels in the Permian. According to Bloomberg, the flow of feedgas to U.S. LNG facilities was recorded at 19.6 Bcf/d, an increase of 0.5 Bcf/d compared to the previous week … Bloomberg reported that RWE, the German energy company, announced plans to invest €17-billion in the U.S. through 2031. The company intends to expand its generation capacity by building 15 gas-fired power plants with a total capacity of 5 GW … Global LNG benchmarks remain elevated with limited capacity to ramp up production. According to Bloomberg, the CEO of Equinor, Norway’s leading energy producer, sees little room to increase output amidst tensions in the Middle East. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Norway has become the top supplier of natural gas to European countries, providing about one-third of the continent’s natural gas demand. European natural gas inventories are currently filled to 29 per cent, compared to 36 per cent at this time last year”
03/16/26 07:30
Takeaways from Scotiabank’s 18th annual REIT conference
- Scott Barlow
Analysts Mario Saric and Himanshu Gupta summarized the important context from their annual REIT conference held last Wednesday,
“Panel client participation and 1x1 meetings were down notably year-over-year. Rather than saying something about the asset class, we think broader market intense volatility impacted participation … One key message = with HBC in the rearview mirror, Retail remains a landlords’ market, with record occupancy and lease spreads expected to continue in 2026 ; tenant leasing discussions reveal limited concern over Tariffs, CUSMA, and no population growth as they play catch-up in a limited new supply market … Our intact Top Picks (CHP and CRR) are more defensively inclined , but we remain ‘overweight’ Retail (prefer over Apartments and Office) in 1H/26 on REIT-specific catalysts. Select SP ratings could revise higher should improved entry point surface (i.e., 15-per-cent-plus NTM [next twelve months] total returns), which the broader market seems intent on offering … Retail REIT outperformance feels in the later innings, but still before 7th Inning Stretch on REIT-specific catalysts … we note Self-Storage, Seniors Housing and Industrial as the Top Asset Classes. We think PMZ offers attractive upside in a stable-to-improving economy’
03/16/26 07:20
Rare earth minerals and waste as a strategic resource
- Scott Barlow
An enlightening report from Goldman Sachs outlined the path ahead for the U.S. to ensure access to rare minerals,
“In a Q&A for the Goldman Sachs Global Institute, Heidi Crebo-Rediker, senior fellow in the Center for Geoeconomic Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, says it will take the US and its allies years to build supply chain resilience. Even with government support, it’s hard to out-mine, out-process, or out-fund China in the near term. But the US could leapfrog China using disruptive mining technology innovation, recovery, and recycling at scale … Several new technologies enabling extraction of critical minerals from waste are faster to scale and cleaner than traditional mining. Some are even approaching cost competitiveness globally. “The fastest and most geopolitically resilient gains will come not from digging more holes in the ground but from treating waste as a strategic resource,” Crebo-Rediker says.
Last year demonstrated that no country can build resilient critical minerals supply on its own. The resource base, the processing capacity, and the capital requirements are too widely distributed for any one player to achieve complete independence. “Coordination among allies and ‘like-minded countries’ is therefore not optional,” Crebo-Rediker says.
03/16/26 07:15
TSX futures edge up as oil spike fuels inflation fears; metals slip
Futures tracking Canada’s resource-heavy stock index inched up on Monday, as investors assessed the impact of potential inflation pressures from rising crude prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, while prices of precious metals eased.
March futures on the S&P/TSX composite index were up 0.3 per cent as of 7:02 a.m. ET, while futures tracking Wall Street’s main indexes were mixed.
The spotlight will be on the materials sector, which includes stocks of Canadian miners, as silver tumbled 4 per cent, copper fell more than 1 per cent and gold also edged down.
Investors remained cautious as strikes on energy infrastructure along with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz kept oil prices elevated, pushing Brent crude futures above US$105 a barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to assemble a coalition to secure safe passage fell short of providing comfort.
- Reuters
03/16/26 07:09
Investors should prepare for ‘persistent selling and volatility’
- Scott Barlow
Citi chief U.S. equity strategist Scott Chronert recognized the growing list of reasons to worry about markets and expects “uncertainty … to trigger persistent selling and volatility”,
“Evolving Risk Profile — We are maintaining our base case views for U.S. equities in 2026 but need to acknowledge a growing list of unanticipated headwinds that fall more into the tail risk/black swan category than typical policy/economically determined volatility.
“Oil Price Impact on Consumption and Sectors — The Iran conflict is obviously top of mind. Duration is key. Higher-for-longer oil prices bring risk to aggregate consumption and may offset other policy/fiscal stimulus benefits. Historical oil price correlations to performance may be less relevant in this supply shock scenario. However, the Russia–Ukraine situation in 2022 serves as a decent proxy.
“Other Concerns — Thus far this year, AI productivity promise has run into an AI disruption offset. This will take time to resolve. Private credit concerns also entered the picture but are difficult to assess as to broader implications. Tariff uncertainty and the fiscal picture persist but are more manageable for now.
“How to Navigate — Tactically, the U.S. should be a relative safe haven versus the rest of world as oil price uncertainty plays out. The mega-cap growth/AI trade has good visibility and less macro connectivity for now. Should oil prices remain higher than previous, Energy and connected Industrials over Consumer is intuitive. We also cite Software as interesting from a positioning perspective."
03/16/26 06:27
Wall Street futures rise as tech stocks gain; Middle East conflict in focus
U.S. stock index futures rose on Monday with shares of Meta among top gainers after a report said the megacap was prepping for sweeping AI-related layoffs, even as elevated crude prices due to the raging Middle East conflict kept risk-taking in check.
At 5:10 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 88 points, or 0.19 per cent, and S&P 500 E-minis were up 27.25 points, or 0.41 per cent. Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 124.25 points, or 0.51 per cent.
Meta (META-Q) gained 3 per cent in premarket trading after a Reuters report said it was planning to shrink 20 per cent or more of its workforce to offset costly artificial intelligence infrastructure bets and prepare for greater efficiency brought about by AI-assisted workers.
The Instagram parent joins similar announcements made by Amazon.com and Block earlier this year.
AI is also expected to stay in the spotlight this week, with chip giant Nvidia’s annual developer conference scheduled later in the day, and results from Micron. Electronics giant Taiwan’s Foxconn also issued a strong quarterly revenue forecast.
“If Jensen can show Nvidia has the hardware to lead not just in building AI, but in powering its everyday use, this event could be a key moment in building confidence that Nvidia will remain the defining name in the next leg of the AI race,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, who holds shares in the chip company.
Nvidia (NVDA-Q) gained 1 per cent, while Micron (MU-Q) added 4 per cent following a price target hike by brokerage RBC. Tesla (TSLA-Q) also gained 1 per cent after CEO Elon Musk said the company’s Terafab project to make artificial intelligence chips will launch in seven days.
Keeping investors cautious were crude prices pinned at US$100 a barrel, as shipments through the crucial Strait of Hormuz stayed mostly shut and U.S. President Donald Trump’s demands for a coalition to secure safe passage seemed to be in vain.
The impact of elevated energy costs is likely to be the main focus of central bank meetings globally this week, with the Federal Reserve also having to consider tariff costs and signs of a weakening jobs market.
Rates are expected to be left unchanged at the end of the Fed’s two-day meeting on Wednesday, and traders have pushed back their expectations for an interest rate cut of at least 25 basis points to only after October, according to LSEG-compiled data, from July seen last month.
The CBOE volatility index slipped 0.9 points to 26.31 on Monday, while futures tracking the rate-sensitive Russell 2000 index were marginally higher.
- Reuters
03/16/26 06:10
Gold falls as inflation fears pressure Fed rate-cut outlook
Gold prices dipped on Monday, pressured by concerns that surging oil costs could stoke inflation further and prompt a more hawkish policy stance by major central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve, dulling the appeal of the non-yielding asset.
Spot gold fell 0.7 per cent to US$4,983.17 per ounce. U.S. gold futures for April delivery fell 1.5 per cent to US$4,987.30.
“The gold market has moved its focus from looking at the implications of the Hormuz trade closure, and towards implications of longer-term inflation,” said Bernard Dahdah, an analyst at Natixis.
“Higher oil prices mean higher inflation and this has repercussions on the Fed. The Fed could pivot, stop cutting rates and that puts downward pressure on gold prices.”
Elsewhere, spot silver fell 2.6 per cent to US$78.46 per ounce. Spot platinum held steady at US$2,024.85 and palladium slid 0.5 per cent to US$1,542.92.
- Reuters
03/16/26 05:30
Before the Bell: What every Canadian investor needs to know today
- S.R. Slobodian
Global markets were mixed as hostilities in the Gulf kept oil prices elevated, clouding an inflation outlook that should keep most central banks on pause at policy meetings this week.
As The Globe economic reporter Mark Rendell writes, the Bank of Canada is expected to hold interest rates steady this week while striking a more hawkish tone in its communications amid the surge in global oil prices that has reignited concerns about inflation. The U.S. Federal Reserve also makes its next rate decision on Wednesday.
Wall Street futures pointed higher after major North American markets closed down on Friday.
TSX futures were little changed.
On Wall Street, markets are watching earnings from Dollar Tree Inc.
“Central bank forecasts will immediately bias towards higher inflation and lower growth,” said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan. “Consistent with this view, we have pushed back or removed action for most central banks that were expected to move in March and April.”
“Developments on the ground highlight the potential for further price increases and the likelihood that the risk premium will remain elevated.”
Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was down 0.3 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.11 per cent, Germany’s DAX declined 0.24 per cent and France’s CAC 40 slid 0.47 per cent.
Read more: Here
03/16/26 05:14
U.S. futures sit narrowly higher as investor caution remains elevated
People walk outside of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in lower Manhattan on March 13.Spencer Platt/Getty Images
Investors were in a wary mood on Monday as hostilities in the Gulf kept oil prices elevated, clouding an inflation outlook that should keep most central banks on pause at policy meetings this week, though Australia is likely to hike.
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remained a major investor focus and U.S. President Donald Trump’s demands for a coalition to help reopen the vital waterway appeared to fall on deaf ears on Monday as allies Japan and Australia said they were not planning to send vessels to escort ships through it.
Further complicating matters, Trump told the Financial Times on Sunday that he was expecting China to help unblock the strait before his scheduled meeting with President Xi Jinping in Beijing at the end of this month. He said he might postpone his trip if China did not provide assistance.
He also warned that NATO faces a “very bad” future if its members failed to come to Washington’s aid.
Benchmark Brent crude was last at US$106.30 a barrel, up 3.7 per cent on the day. It was below US$70 a barrel in late February before the war began and had dipped under US$60 in early January.
This sharp move has caused market participants to dramatically reassess what they think central banks will do and traders have slashed the amount of easing they had expected this year.
Traders have not quite fully priced one Federal Reserve rate cut this year and they expect at least one hike by the European Central Bank by the end of 2026.
And with interest-rate setters in the U.S., Britain, euro zone, Japan, Australia, Canada, Switzerland and Sweden this week all holding their first meetings since the start of the war, investors hope they will get some more color on policymakers’ thinking.
The big question for officials is “how long does the conflict last, (and) does the shock in energy prices - offset by fiscal support - cause second-round inflation effects and therefore require restrictive monetary policy,” said Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research FX and rates at Societe Generale.
“Or are economies heading down a recessionary path and does oil trigger a bear market in risk assets?”
Risk assets like stocks have fallen sharply since the war began, but were somewhat steadier on Monday as investors tried to process what might happen next.
Europe’s broad STOXX 600 was flat on Monday, though it is down 6 per cent since the war began. U.S. shares have fallen less, the S&P 500 is down 3.5 per cent, and futures were up 0.5 per cent in early European trading.
Earlier in the day, Asia-Pacific stocks nudged up 0.3 per cent, helped by a rebound in South Korea. The once-loved, tech-heavy KOSPI benchmark has been an epicenter of selling globally since the war began, but even with Monday’s 1-per-cent gain, it is down 11 per cent in March.
Chinese blue chips were flat after data showed retail sales and industrial output for January and February topped forecasts, while house prices continued to slip.
Top U.S. and Chinese officials are also meeting in Paris to discuss potential deals in agriculture, critical minerals and managed trade for Trump and Xi to consider when the U.S. president visits Beijing.
- Reuters
03/16/26 05:10
Oil rises as focus returns to threats on Middle East export facilities
Oil prices rose on Monday as investor focus returned to threats facing Middle East oil facilities, despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for nations to help safeguard the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy shipments.
Brent crude futures climbed US$2.73, or 2.7 per cent, to US$105.87 a barrel, after settling up US$2.68 on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained US$1.65, or 1.7 per cent, to US$100.36 a barrel, after finishing up nearly US$3 in the previous session.
Both contracts have surged more than 40 per cent this month to their highest since 2022, after the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran prompted Tehran to halt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, choking off a fifth of global oil supply in the biggest disruption ever.
“U.S. strikes over the weekend on Kharg Island raised supply concerns, as most of Iran’s oil exports pass through it,” ING commodity strategists said on Monday.
While the strikes appear to have targeted military, rather than energy, infrastructure, they still pose supply risks since Iranian oil is about the only oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz for now, ING added.
Over the weekend, Trump threatened further strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island, which handles about 90 per cent of its exports, after hitting military targets there, to spur a defiant response of more retaliation from Tehran.
Iranian drones hit a key oil terminal in Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates shortly after the Kharg attacks. Oil loading operations at Fujairah have since resumed, four sources said, but it was unclear if they were back to normal.
- Reuters