Markets update
- The S&P 500 climbed 0.25% to end the session at 6,716.09 points. The Nasdaq gained 0.47% to 22,479.53 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.10% to 46,993.26 points. Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes rose, led by energy. Modest changes in crude oil prices kept investors from making big moves ahead of the Fed decision on interest rates Wednesday.
- The S&P/TSX composite index ended up 0.16% at 32,929.09. Energy stocks climbed 1.1%, their longest winning streak since late January. Tech stocks gained 1.8%.
- Oil prices rose as renewed Iranian attacks on the United Arab Emirates heightened concerns about the worsening outlook for global supply if there is no quick resolution to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Brent crude futures settled up US$3.21, or 3.2%, to US$103.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up US$2.71, or 2.9%, to US$96.21.
- The loonie was trading 0.1 per cent lower at 72.99 U.S. cents. Canadian government 10-year bond yields fell 2.7 basis points to 3.407 per cent.
03/17/26 16:11
Lululemon forecasts annual revenue, profit below estimates
Lululemon (LULU-Q) forecast 2026 revenue and profit below Wall Street expectations on Tuesday, underscoring its challenges as it faces rising competition and an attempt by founder Chip Wilson to overhaul the board.
The company, which is searching for a permanent CEO after Calvin McDonald’s departure in December, expects annual revenue to be between US$11.35 billion and $11.50 billion, compared with analysts’ average estimate of US$11.51 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.
It also forecast annual profit in the range of US$12.10 to US$12.30 per share, while analysts estimated US$12.58.
Shares are down 2.3% in the post market.
- Reuters
- Read more: Lululemon appoints new independent board director as it faces pressure to reinvigorate brand
03/17/26 16:09
Nvidia sales opportunity for Blackwell, Rubin chips more than US$1-trillion by 2027
Nvidia (NVDA-Q) CEO Jensen Huang said on Tuesday at a press conference that the revenue opportunity for the company’s Blackwell and Rubin artificial intelligence chips is “likely to be larger than $1 trillion” by the end of 2027.
Blackwell and Rubin are Nvidia’s flagship AI chips and capable of building the large language models that underpin chatbots such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Blackwell chips are available for purchase, while Rubin chips are Nvidia’s next-generation processors and are in full production.
The US$1 trillion estimate Huang issued does not include a swath of the company’s other products like its central processing units (CPUs), its range of networking chips or the forthcoming chips based on the technology it licensed from Groq. The estimate also does not include a Rubin variant known as Rubin Ultra.
Huang also said Nvidia is restarting manufacturing of one of the company’s chips that is designed to comply with U.S. export restrictions on China. The company had halted production last year of its H200 chip, which is based on its aging Hopper technology, because of increasing regulatory hurdles in the U.S. and China, according to a report at the time.
Since then, Nvidia has received licenses to export the H200 from the U.S. government and has taken orders, Huang said. This led Nvidia to begin restarting its manufacturing several weeks ago.
The China chip sales are not included in the forecast for more than US$1 trillion in revenue that Huang made for the company’s Blackwell and Rubin AI chips.
- Reuters
03/17/26 15:33
Are optimists better investors? Or pessimists?
- David Berman
If you are feeling pretty glum about the world right now, you probably know why.
Between rising authoritarianism, surging energy prices, spiralling geopolitical conflict and willful disregard for climate change, there is plenty of bad news to challenge our natural optimism.
Does a dim view of the future affect our investing decisions?
Optimism looks like a requirement for successful investing. It drives us to take some risks with our money in the hope of a handsome payout down the road.
Many stocks require economic growth, along with freewheeling consumer spending, to generate profits and dividends – all of which rests on a sunny outlook. Without a belief in better days ahead, there may be a temptation to think short-term and live for today.
Natural optimists would seem to have all the advantages if their disposition translates to long-term investing, given that the stock market has performed well over time and recovered from nerve-rattling downturns.
But optimism has its drawbacks.
It can lead to excessive risk-taking if you’re constantly assuring yourself that everything will be okay. It can also obscure the bleak reality that some struggling companies may face, which can be financially disastrous if you’re chasing a flailing stock.
The takeaway may be that a little optimism - but not too much - is the ticket to investing success. I share more on this in today’s On Money newsletter.
03/17/26 14:26
Analysts revise AI hyperscaler debt forecasts after Amazon bond sale
Analysts anticipate a higher supply of debt being raised by the Big Five hyperscaler companies this year as they race to build out their data center infrastructure, following Amazon’s near-record bond sale last week of roughly US$54 billion in investment-grade bonds.
Hyperscalers, which operate vast data centers and other infrastructure to facilitate AI training and deployment, have been raising debt to finance data centers needed to fuel the boom in AI.
Analysts at BofA Global Research on Friday raised their forecast for the hyperscalers’ new debt in 2026 to US$175 billion from US$140 billion. In early February, Barclays analysts said that U.S. investment-grade corporate bond issuance could be greater than US$2 trillion in 2026, which they said “would exceed even the post-COVID record levels seen in 2020.”
The five major AI hyperscalers - Amazon, Alphabet’s Google, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle - issued US$121 billion in U.S. corporate bonds last year, versus an average US$28 billion per year between 2020 and 2024, according to a January report by BofA Securities. Hyperscalers made up four of the five biggest U.S. high-grade bond deals in 2025, according to a December report by MUFG analysts.
- Reuters
03/17/26 13:30
U.S. stock market crash fears ease even as Middle East war rages on
Options traders’ fears of a U.S. stock market crash have pulled back nearly to levels seen before the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran that made oil prices soar.
The Nations TailDex Index and the Cboe Skew Index, two separate gauges that measure how much traders are paying for crash protection, have retreated to near where they stood before the Feb. 28 strikes on Iran. The S&P 500 is still down 2% from pre-war levels.
“TDEX is signaling that investors are now less worried about a “tail event,” or a really steep drop in equity prices, than at any point since the war started,” said Scott Nations, president of Nations Indexes, an independent developer of volatility and option strategy index products.
“Given the muted response from the S&P 500, this outlook makes sense, but it’s an important metric to watch,” he said.
On Monday, the TailDex index was at 18.84, just below its closing level of 19.01 on February 27. The Cboe SKEW index finished at 141.49 on Monday, down from 146.67 prior to the air strikes.
Both indexes soared to multi-month highs as soaring oil prices unleashed fear of a sizeable pullback in markets.
The cost of deep out-of-the-money S&P 500 puts - contracts that would offer protection against a 20% drop in the market over the next three months - stands just slightly higher than it was immediately prior to the strikes, according to Susquehanna Financial Group strategist Christopher Jacobson.
While fear of a market crash has faded, market anxiety levels are still higher than they were in early February. Nor are investors rushing to bet on a sharp rebound in stocks past old highs.
- Reuters
03/17/26 12:21
U.S. bonds drift higher, but Middle East caution lingers; Fed in focus
U.S. Treasuries edged higher on Tuesday, tracking gains in equities, as risk sentiment improved after Israel reported the killing of Iran’s top security official, though markets remained wary with Iran rebuffing de-escalation messages from intermediaries.
U.S. yields, which move inversely to prices, fell across the curve, with yields on five- to 30-year Treasuries down for a second straight session and two-year yields declining for a third day.
Last week’s selling pressure on Treasuries eased, as bond investors priced in a short-lived conflict, with the view that a swift, contained war would push oil prices lower and limit inflationary pressures.
That assessment was tested by developments in the Middle East. Israel said on Tuesday Iran’s security chief, Ali Larijani, was killed, as well as Gholamreza Soleimani, who led the volunteer Basij militia, which plays a major role in domestic security.
But any initial improvement in sentiment from that news was tempered by comments from a senior Iranian official who said the new supreme leader had rejected de-escalation offers conveyed by intermediaries, insisting Israel and the United States first be “brought to their knees.”
Against that unsettled backdrop, investors are also looking ahead to comments from the Federal Reserve on the conflict and its implications for interest rates and the broader economy. The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, which began its two-day meeting on Tuesday, is widely expected to leave its benchmark overnight rate unchanged in the 3.50–3.75-per-cent range.
Markets will be keen for comments on how policymakers assess the Iran conflict in the context of the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.
“Because of the higher level of uncertainty, you can expect the Fed to come in and not change anything,” said Olumide Owolabi, head of the U.S. rates team at Neuberger Berman in Chicago.
U.S. rate futures on Tuesday priced in just one Fed cut this year, or about 26 bps, from 55 bps before the Iran war, according to LSEG estimates.
In midday trading, the benchmark 10-year yield dipped 2.2 basis points to 4.198 per cent. On Monday, it posted its largest daily decline since mid-February.
- Reuters
03/17/26 11:43
Tech, miners lead gains on TSX; focus on central bank meetings
Canada’s benchmark index rose on Tuesday with technology stocks and miners leading gains, while investors awaited key central bank decisions this week for clues on the monetary policy outlook in Canada and the U.S. as tensions in the Middle East raged on.
At 11:42 a.m. ET, the S&P/TSX composite index up 164.77 points, or 0.49 per cent, at 33,038.84, a day after clocking its biggest one-day jump since February 26, before the conflict began.
The materials sector rose 1.4 per cent and was among the top gainers, as prices of precious metal miners inched higher. Tech stocks gained 2 per cent.
Oil prices jumped as much as 4 per cent before paring some gains, as attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East and continued shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global crude and LNG flows, revived supply concerns.
Energy stocks climbed 1.1 per cent and were set to gain for a fifth consecutive session - their longest streak since late January. The sub-index touched its highest level since September 2008 in the previous session.
The spike in oil prices has reignited worries about global inflation, prompting central banks to reassess their policy stance. Canada is seen as relatively insulated from the latest energy shock as it is a net oil exporter.
“We would not expect the Governing Council to signal a material risk for shifting to a tighter policy stance unless there were signs that inflation expectations were rising uncomfortably,” said Michael Hanson, executive director and senior global economist at J.P. Morgan.
- Reuters
03/17/26 11:31
Capital Economics downgrades Canadian housing forecast, sees more price declines in coming months
- Darcy Keith
Capital Economics has just downgraded its Canadian house price forecast for this year, now predicting another 2% drop over the next three to six months.
“Those new forecasts imply that prices will fall by 4 per cent this year, matching the decline in 2025,’’ Stephen Brown, the research firm’s deputy chief North America economist, said in a note. “We expect prices to then stabilize because mortgage costs, based on five-year fixed rates, will be back in line with their 2017-19 level. That seems like a reasonable benchmark given the months’ supply of homes for sale, at 5.0 in February, broadly matches the 5.1 average over that period. That said, the risks are probably still tilted a bit to the downside given the potential for further increases in condo supply.”
Mr. Brown notes the spike in oil prices this month is likely to be negative for housing due to the impact on mortgage rates.
“Although we are not convinced that the rise in oil prices so far will cause the Bank of Canada to shift to interest rate hikes this year, the fact that money markets have begun to price in that scenario has pushed up government bond yields. That, in turn, could cause five-year fixed mortgage rates to rise from an average of 3.8 per cent recently toward 4 per cent,” he said.
His forecasts are for the MLS Home Price Index.
Home sales in February across the country fell 1.3 per cent on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, according to data released Tuesday by the Canadian Real Estate Association, while new listings of homes declined 3.9 per cent.
03/17/26 11:16
Boeing sees profit for commercial airplane division in 2027, later than expected
Boeing 737 MAX aircraft are assembled at the company’s plant in Renton, Washington, U.S. June 25, 2024.Jennifer Buchanan/Reuters
Boeing (BA-N) expects its commercial airplane division to turn a profit in 2027, not this year as previously expected due to higher-than-expected costs of its purchase of Spirit AeroSystems, Chief Financial Officer Jay Malave said on Tuesday at the Bank of America Global Industrials Conference in London.
The commercial airplane division lost US$632-million in 2025 and US$2.1 -billion in 2024.
The company expects to increase production of its popular 737 MAX jet from roughly 42 aircraft a month to 47 a month by year’s end and to deliver about 500 of the jets this year, he said.
The single-aisle jet is critical to Boeing’s financial recovery.
Deliveries in the first quarter were slightly hampered by damage to wiring on about 25 737s, but fixing the problems only required a few days of more work and will not hurt annual deliveries, he said.
- Reuters
03/17/26 10:49
Airlines help lift the U.S. stock market, even as oil prices rise again
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 9.Brendan McDermid/Reuters
U.S. stocks are rising Tuesday, led by airlines still seeing customers want to fly despite worries about the economy. That’s despite another climb for oil prices because of the war with Iran.
The S&P 500 added 0.7 per cent, coming off its best day since the war began. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 352 points, or 0.8 per cent, as of 10 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.7 per cent higher.
It’s a break, for now at least, from the usual playbook since the start of the war, where stock prices have tended to go in the opposite direction of oil prices. The fear in financial markets has been that a long-term disruption to the global flow of oil because of the war could send prices so high for so long that it damages the global economy.
On Tuesday, the price for a barrel of benchmark U.S. crude rose 1.8 per cent to $95.18. Brent crude, the international standard, climbed 1.4 per cent to $101.63. But they pared even bigger gains from earlier in the morning, and they’re still below where oil prices were at the end of last week.
Delta Air Lines also offered an encouraging signal about the strength of the economy after raising its forecast for revenue for the first three months of 2026. It said it’s seen demand to fly accelerate into March from both businesses and households.
Of course, it’s also having to pay higher prices for jet fuel because of the spike in oil prices. But it said the strong demand for flights could nevertheless allow it to report profit for the start of 2026 that’s in line with its earlier forecast.
Delta’s stock flew 5 per cent higher, and it helped other airline stocks trim their own sharp losses for the year so far. United Airlines climbed 2.8 per cent, and Southwest Airlines rose 3.4 per cent.
American Airlines gained 3.8 per cent after saying it’s also likely to report stronger growth in revenue for the start of this year than it had forecast earlier.
Other areas of the market whose profits are closely tied to the economy’s strength were likewise rising. JPMorgan Chase climbed 1.2 per cent and was one of the strongest forces lifting the S&P 500.
Some beaten-down stocks in the financial industry recovered losses from earlier in the year, including companies swept up in worries about whether software businesses and other industries potentially under threat will pay back all their loans. Blue Owl Capital gained 5 per cent, and Ares Management rose 5.1 per cent.
Another big winner was Uber Technologies, which rose 5.7 per cent after announcing an expansion of its partnership with Nvidia. They plan to launch a fleet of autonomous vehicles using Nvidia’s technology, beginning with Los Angeles and San Francisco in the first half of next year.
The U.S. stock market has a track record of bouncing back relatively quickly from military conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere, as long as oil prices don’t stay too high for too long. Many professional investors are expecting that to be the case again, which has helped keep U.S. stock prices near their record levels.
For all its dramatic swings over the last couple weeks, including several that struck hour to hour, the S&P 500 is only 3.3 per cent below its all-time high.
That’s even as Treasury yields have climbed on expectations that higher oil prices will keep the Federal Reserve from resuming its cuts to interest rates for a while. Higher yields push downward on prices for stocks and all kinds of investments.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.20 per cent from 4.23 per cent late Monday, but it remains well above the 3.97 per cent level it was at before the war with Iran began.
The Fed will make its next announcement on interest rates Wednesday afternoon, and traders see virtually no chance of a cut, according to data from CME Group.
- The Associated Press
03/17/26 10:47
David Rosenberg thinks the BoC may need to cut interest rates back to near zero again
- Darcy Keith
David Rosenberg has been sounding the alarm over Canada’s weak economy for a long time. But now the economist and founder of Rosenberg Research is taking it a step further, suggesting that the Bank of Canada may need to slash interest rates to near zero if it wants to resurrect an economy that’s been flirting with recession over the past year. The bank last did so during the pandemic, when its overnight rate reached 0.25 per cent.
There are many reasons for Canada’s moribund economy, he says, but one key impediment is deteriorating consumer balance sheets.
“The household debt/income ratio has risen for five straight quarters, rising to 177.2 per cent in Q4 from 176.3 per cent in Q3 to stand at nearly a two-year high. Not to mention far above the 140-per-cent norm of the past 35 years. This is why the Bank of Canada has been pushing on the proverbial string. Because the debt binge has impaired the interest rate relief delivered by the central bank since the easing cycle commenced in the spring of 2024,” he said in his Breakfast With Dave newsletter today.
He says the bank’s rate cuts so far this cycle of 275 basis points “has bumped against this stubbornly high debt burden, and as a result, to this day, nearly 15 per cent of Canadian personal disposable incomes are being siphoned off into debt-service payments. That share has not come down since the fourth quarter of 2022, when the BoC was in full-fledged tightening mode and interest rates were far higher than they are today. In fact, the power of compound interest on the mountain of debt has meant that the debt-servicing burden today on the consumer is more onerous than it was back in 1990 when John Crow was holding interest rates in double-digit terrain.”
He also points out that the 2.25-per-cent Bank of Canada policy rate masks a much higher interest rate households are actually paying - an average of 4.8 per cent. “That is a huge imbalance that weighs against a spending cycle,” Rosenberg says. The real interest rate households have been paying since the easing cycle began has only come down 50 basis points, he says.
Rosenberg thinks that the debt burden itself has sparked a major erosion in consumer credit quality, given that the share of Canadian households that are at least 60 days behind on their debt payments has hit a seven-year high of 2.1 per cent and is above the 2020 pandemic level peak. The contraction in employment, as demonstrated by last Friday’s very weak employment report for February, is aggravating the situation, he says.
“Unless Canadians embark on a belt-tightening program of their own, which of course would be a deflationary development, the Bank of Canada is going to have to end up cutting rates aggressively, over and above what it has already done. That may again mean a retest of the zero bound before this easing cycle fully plays out,” he said.
03/17/26 09:53
OpenAI to sell AI to U.S. agencies through Amazon cloud unit
OpenAI has signed a new deal to sell access to its AI models to U.S. defense and government agencies through Amazon’s (AMZN-Q) cloud unit for classified and unclassified work, the ChatGPT maker said on Tuesday.
The contract enables OpenAI to support the Pentagon under a deal it secured late last month, after the agency dropped its previous AI provider, Anthropic.
Anthropic, which won a Pentagon contract worth up to US$200-million in July 2025, had been a key U.S. defence AI supplier, working with Palantir and Amazon Web Services (AWS) to deploy its Claude models in classified military and intelligence systems.
But its relationship with the Pentagon collapsed in February after Anthropic refused to allow unrestricted military use of its AI, particularly for domestic surveillance and autonomous weapons. Following which, the Pentagon labeled it a “supply chain risk” and effectively cut it off from government work.
OpenAI, which had previously focused on unclassified government use, has now secured a Pentagon contract to provide its models for classified operations.
Its partnership with AWS builds on this latest shift, reflecting how access to government and defense contracts, especially via cloud providers already embedded in federal systems, is becoming a key battleground.
- Reuters
03/17/26 09:46
Chipmaker Qualcomm unveils US$20-billion stock buyback program
A Qualcomm sign is shown outside one of the company's many buildings in San Diego, Cal., on Sept. 17, 2020.Mike Blake/Reuters
Smartphone chip designer Qualcomm (QCOM-Q) on Tuesday unveiled a US$20-billion stock buyback program, in addition to its existing US$2.1-billion share repurchase authority.
Shares of the company rose more than 2.5 per cent in early trading.
Qualcomm is also increasing its quarterly cash dividend by over 3 per cent, to 92 US cents per share from 89 US cents, the company said.
“We remain focused on stockholder returns and executing on our ongoing diversification opportunities,” CEO Cristiano Amon said.
- Reuters
03/17/26 09:37
TSX edges up in broad gains; investors await central bank decisions
Canada’s benchmark index opened higher on Tuesday on gains across sectors, with miners and financials in the lead, while investors awaited key central bank decisions for clues on monetary policy outlook in Canada and the U.S.
At 9:32 a.m. ET, the S&P/TSX composite index was up 0.8 per cent at 33,130.48 points
Wall Street’s main indexes opened higher on Tuesday with financial stocks in the lead, while investors weighed the impact of the Middle East conflict on energy costs, putting inflation risks back in focus ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 139.1 points, or 0.30 per cent, to 47,085.53. The S&P 500 rose 23.0 points, or 0.34 per cent, to 6,722.35, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 83.9 points, or 0.37 per cent, to 22,458.032.
- Reuters
03/17/26 08:26
Top picks in promising electrical power equipment sector
- Scott Barlow
Citi analyst Pierre Lau surveyed the global electrical equipment sector, one with an enviable array of growth drivers,
“We are positive on the global power transformer industry expecting prolonged shortage with annual supply below annual demand in 2026-28E. Supply was a 30-per-cent deficit of demand in 2025. Cumulative shortage would increase 1.4 times from 708 GVA in 2025 to the peak of 1,699 GVA in 2028E, which would be 47 per cent of the annual supply constraint by production capacity and skilled labor, conducive to boost market price rises. We calculate global production capacity to up 53 per cent in 2025-28E and assume demand to 7.3-per-cent CAGR [compound annual growth rate] in 2025-30E which might have upside from Citi’s more ambitious U.S. hyper-scaler assumptions recently. Our Buy-rated global top pick transformer makers are Hitachi from Japan, Hyosung Heavy from Korea as well as Sieyuan and TBEA both from China; we also like the strong fundamentals of Siemens Energy in Europe and GE Vernova in the U.S. but rate them Neutral due to above sector average PERs”
03/17/26 08:25
Copper stocks more attractive after selling
- Scott Barlow
RBC Capital Markets analyst Sam Crittenden sees copper mining stocks as attractive after a brief sell-off,
“Copper prices held steady last week at $5.79/lb amid modestly rising inventories which grew by 2.4 per cent to 1.3Mt driven by additions to LME inventories. Meanwhile, copper equities shed 4.5 per cent week-over-week as gold prices fell (down 2.9 per cent w/w), the U.S. Dollar strengthened (up 1.5 per cent w/w), alongside the broader S&P 500 which fell 1.6 per cent w/w. Copper equities are now down down 0.3 per cent year-to-date as valuations have eased; however, the fundamentals for copper remain strong, in our view, and the stocks are now trading at an 11-per-cent FCF yield for 2026, and growing to 17 per cent in 2027… The Chinese import premium rose 13 per cent to $45/mt, signaling tightness in the Chinese concentrate market … We continue to see Lundin as having the strongest leverage to gold prices due to the vast quantities in resource at Vicuña where we project a revenue breakdown of 46-per-cent gold, 42-per-cent copper, and 12-per-cent silver at spot prices. Meanwhile, Hudbay and Freeport also have moderate gold exposures, while Capstone and First Quantum are the most levered to copper”
Mr. Crittenden has “outperform ratings” on Capstone Mining (CS-T), Hubby Minerals (HBM-T), First Quantum (with a ‘speculative’ qualifier) (FM-T), and Ivanhoe (also speculative) (IVN-T).
03/17/26 08:13
Fund managers rapidly switch to bears
- Scott Barlow
A Bank of America customer uses an ATM machine at a branch in Greenville, South Carolina January 18, 2012.Chris Keane/Reuters
BofA Securities monthly fund manager survey (FMS) is complete and summarized by investment strategist Michael Hartnett,
“March FMS turns bearish as Iran & private credit concerns end ‘frothy bull’ sentiment of recent months; growth optimism tanks and cash levels surge to 4.2 per cent (contrarian FMS cash ‘sell signal’ over), FMS bearish enough to sell oil more than $100/bbl, sell DXY [U.S. trade weighted dollar index] >100 … buy SPX 6600; that said, BofA positioning metrics far from uber-bear levels seen at recent big lows/good entry points for stocks & credit. On Macro: global growth optimism slumps to net 7 per cent from 39 per cent, inflation expectations jump to net 45 per cent from 9 per cent, rate cut optimism lowest since Feb’23; but no one pricing in recession … On Risk: geopolitics & inflation replace AI bubble as biggest tail risks, and 63 per cent say private equity/credit most likely source of systemic credit event; most crowded FMS trades = long gold & long global semis; most likely result for US midterms = DEM House/GOP Senate (54 per cent), but investor probability of DEM sweep (28 per cent) on the rise.
“On Asset Allocation: March rotation from “boom” (e.g., banks) to ‘stagflation’ (e.g., staples); more broadly, US$ short-covering has been modest, investors are long commodities (most since Apr’22), and retain big OW in equities, especially EM (most since Feb’21), Japan (most since May’24), banks, industrials, in sharp contrast to a big short in consumer discretionary stocks (most UW since Dec’22)."
03/17/26 07:03
Delta Air sticks to first-quarter profit forecast, raises revenue expectations
Delta Air (DAL-N) said on Tuesday it expects first-quarter profit within its initial forecast range but raised its revenue expectations, amid high jet fuel prices due to the conflict in the Middle East.
The carrier said consumer and corporate demand trends have improved into March with strength across its main, premium and loyalty revenues.
Shares of the carrier were up 3.55 per cent in premarket trading.
Delta now expects first-quarter revenue to grow at a high- single-digit percentage, compared with its earlier forecast of 5 per cent to 7 per cent.
The company had forecast adjusted profit per share in the range of 50 US cents to 90 US cents.
Delta said it was well-positioned to navigate the current environment and was ready to tweak its capacity if fuel prices stay elevated.
Jet fuel prices have jumped more than 50 per cent since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, with Iranian strikes across the major oil-producing region disrupting supplies and shutting key shipping routes.
- Reuters
03/17/26 06:51
Bank of Montreal to open over 130 new California locations
The BMO office tower is shown in Toronto's financial district in Toronto on Tuesday, April 5, 2016.Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press
Bank of Montreal (BMO-T) said on Tuesday it plans to open more than 130 financial centres in California and about 15 in Arizona over the next five years, as it looks to expand presence in the U.S. West following the sale of several branches across the nation last year.
BMO, the third-largest Canadian bank by market value, said in October it would sell 138 branches to First Citizens Bank, and reinvest in markets with stronger client engagement and longer-term growth prospects.
As part of its growth strategy, the bank said it would open 150 new branches over the next five years, with a focus on U.S. markets, largely California-centric. Some of the biggest U.S. banks have invested in building branches in affluent areas to attract more clients, earn consumer trust and provide higher-value services such as mortgages and wealth management.
In 2023, Bank of Montreal acquired BNP Paribas’ U.S. unit, Bank of the West, for $16.3-billion, in its biggest deal ever, to gain access to nearly 2 million customers, about 500 retail branches, and commercial and wealth offices across the Midwest and Western United States.
The bank plans to open three new financial centres in Greater Los Angeles, two in the Bay Area and another two in San Diego in 2026. The expansion will create hundreds of jobs and will expand access to in-person and advice-led banking, the lender said.
Shares of BMO have gained a little over 7 per cent so far in 2026, outperforming its larger peer, Royal Bank of Canada (RY-T).
- Reuters
03/17/26 06:48
Market mood bearish, but less so than in April’s tariff shock, BofA survey finds
Investor sentiment turned bearish in March due to the war in Iran and concern over private credit, BofA’s monthly fund manager survey found, but sentiment remains well above the levels during April 2025’s tariff turmoil.
Just 7 per cent of those surveyed expect a stronger global economy, down from 39 per cent a month earlier, while a net 45 per cent expect higher global CPI in the next 12 months, up from 9 per cent.
However, while that caused BofA’s broadest measure of investor sentiment to fall sharply to 5.6 from 8.2, this is still well above April 2025’s low of 1.8.
- Reuters
03/17/26 06:24
Honeywell expects hit to Q1 from Middle East conflict; maintains 2026 forecast
Honeywell International (HON-Q) said the Middle East conflict could hit the company’s first-quarter revenue by a high-single-digit percentage, an early sign of how the Iran war may impact corporate earnings beyond the aviation and energy industries.
However, the industrial giant remains confident in its 2026 forecast, viewing the disruptions as a “tactical issue” rather than demand-driven, CEO Vimal Kapur said at BofA Securities’ Global Industrials Conference on Tuesday.
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is rattling businesses worldwide, driving up energy prices - in turn pushing up costs and threatening margins - while squeezing supplies of critical raw materials and raising questions about the reliability of trade routes critical to the flow of goods from food to car parts.
“If something due in March shows up in April or May, it still won’t change our guide for the year or for that matter, the next year,” Kapur said.
Honeywell expects 2026 sales of between US$38.8-billion and US$39.8-billion and a full-year adjusted profit per share of US$10.35 to US$10.65.
The company’s shares have fallen about 3.7 per cent since the conflict began more than two weeks ago.
- Reuters
03/17/26 05:52
Wall Street futures point to a lower open with Fed meeting set to kick off
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at the opening bell in New York on March 16.TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/Getty Images
U.S. stock index futures slipped on Tuesday as the Middle East conflict pinned oil prices near US$100 a barrel, fueling inflation concerns that will be a major point of discussion when the Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day meeting later in the day.
Wall Street was also cooling from a tech-driven rebound in the previous session that saw the benchmark S&P 500 log its biggest one-day jump in over a month, which also featured Nvidia’s extensively watched annual developer conference.
Nvidia said the revenue opportunity for its artificial intelligence chips may reach at least US$1-trillion through 2027, as the company outlined a strategy to compete more aggressively in the fast-growing market for running AI systems in real time.
Shares of the company were flat in premarket trading after Monday’s 1.6-per-cent rise, while peers Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom were marginally lower.
Investors are now drawn to the expanding conflict in the Middle East that is likely to keep the Strait of Hormuz shut, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s call to allies to safeguard the passage fell on deaf ears.
Travel stocks Delta and Carnival were down 1 per cent, while energy companies Occidental and EQT were up about 1 per cent each.
Brokerages lifted their outlooks for energy prices that is likely to dampen economic growth, which was also flagged by the Australian central bank when it hiked interest rates earlier in the day.
The U.S. Fed is likely to leave borrowing costs unchanged at the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday.
But investors are pricing in a hawkish outlook as short-term Treasury yields edge up and rate futures suggest one 25-basis-point cut towards the end of the year, according to LSEG-compiled data, down from around two before the war.
“While we do not expect central banks to make knee-jerk policy moves, policymakers are likely to stress vigilance over inflation risks amid elevated oil prices and uncertainty over the length of the war,” said analysts at UBS on central bank decisions globally this week.
“Comments that are more hawkish than expected could inject further volatility into a market that is vulnerable to shifts in sentiment.”
At 5:11 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 104 points, or 0.22 per cent, S&P 500 E-minis were down 20 points, or 0.30 per cent. Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 95.25 points, or 0.39 per cent.
Futures tracking the rate-sensitive Russell 2000 index lost 0.7 per cent, while Wall Street’s fear gauge, the CBOE volatility index edged up 0.57 points to 24.06.
Despite the global turmoil in markets due to the war, U.S. stocks have held up better than those in Europe and Asia on expectations that the repercussions on the economy will be less severe.
However, analysts and Goldman Sachs’ CEO David Solomon have underscored that investors are yet to fully consider the effects of the war on the global economy.
The conflict has also delayed a planned summit between U.S. and China’s leaders on Trump’s request, casting a shadow over mutual ties that have been stable since their last meeting in October.
- Reuters
03/17/26 05:23
Before the Bell: What every Canadian investor needs to know today
- S.R. Slobodian
Global markets were mixed in cautious trading as investors assessed the economic damage from a prolonged Middle East conflict while central bank interest rate decisions loom.
Wall Street futures were in the red after major North American markets closed higher yesterday.
TSX futures followed sentiment lower.
In Canada, investors are getting results from Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. and Lululemon Athletica Inc.
The Federal Open Market Committee “is likely to defer action until it becomes clear whether the output or price effects are dominant,” said Steve Englander, global head of G10 FX research at Standard Chartered.
“We would be surprised if the FOMC indicated a strong direction on the impact of the war, as it has no way of knowing how long the war will last or whether the biggest response will be on activity or inflation.”
Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.18 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.35 per cent, Germany’s DAX edged down 0.08 per cent and France’s CAC 40 advanced 0.3 per cent.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 0.09 per cent lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed 0.13 per cent.
Read more: Here
03/17/26 05:22
Citigroup cuts 12-month bitcoin, ether targets as U.S. crypto legislation stalls
An illustration photograph taken on November 22, 2025, shows a gold plated souvenir Bitcoin coin reflected in a mirror and arranged for a photograph in front of a computer screen displaying the Bitcoin monthly price chart in a residential property in Guildford, south of London.JUSTIN TALLIS/AFP/Getty Images
Citigroup cut its 12-month forecast for bitcoin and ethereum, citing slow U.S. legislative progress that narrows the window for regulatory catalysts expected to boost ETF-driven demand and broader institutional adoption.
Progress on U.S. crypto market-structure legislation has stalled in the Senate, with the Clarity Act’s chances of passage declining over disagreements on stablecoin rules and a shrinking window for approval in 2026.
The Wall Street brokerage lowered its 12-month bitcoin price forecast to US$112,000 from US$143,000 and its ethereum estimate to US$3,175 from US$4,304.
“Regulatory catalysts will drive further adoption and flows but the window of opportunity for U.S. legislation this year is narrowing,” Citi strategist Alex Saunders said in a note on Monday.
Citi said that under a recessionary macro backdrop, bitcoin could drop to US$58,000 and ether to US$1,198, while its bull case, driven by stronger end-investor demand, puts bitcoin as high as $165,000 and ether at US$4,488.
Bitcoin last traded around US$74,298.11 and ether around US$2345.51,
“ETH will be especially sensitive to user activity metrics, which have been weak recently, but stablecoin and tokenization trends may increase interest and usage,” Citi added.
Chances for passing a crypto bill would shrink further if Democrats gain seats in the U.S. Congress in November mid-term elections, since Democratic lawmakers are more divided on overhauling federal rules to accommodate cryptocurrencies.
- Reuters
03/17/26 05:13
World shares are mixed and U.S. futures slip
Shares were mixed in Europe and Asia on Tuesday after a drop in oil prices helped send the U.S. stock market to its best day since the war in Iran began.
The reprieve in prices for crude was short-lived, with Brent crude climbing nearly 4 per cent early Tuesday to US$104.13 a barrel. U.S. benchmark crude also climbed, to US$97.53 per barrel after dipping to about US$93 on Monday.
U.S. futures fell back, with the contracts for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.3 per cent.
In Asian trading, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 gave up early gains to slip 0.1 per cent to 53,700.39 and the Kospi in South Korea jumped 1.6 per cent to 5,640.48.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.1 per cent to 25,668.54, while the Shanghai Composite index dropped 0.9 per cent to 4,049.91.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.4 per cent to 8,614.30 after the central bank hiked its benchmark interest rate to 4.1 per cent.
Citing higher fuel prices, the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday lifted the cash rate from 3.85 per cent which it set at its Feb. 3 meeting in response to surging inflation. That rise was Australia’s first since November 2023.
Taiwan’s Taiex rose 1.5 per cent and India’s Sensex picked up 0.6 per cent.
On Monday, the S&P 500 climbed 1 per cent for its biggest gain in five weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.8 per cent and the Nasdaq composite jumped 1.2 per cent.
- The Associated Press
03/17/26 05:10
Oil prices bounce back 3 per cent as Iran war halts supply
Oil prices rose around 3 per cent on Tuesday, clawing back some of the previous session’s losses on renewed supply fears, with the Strait of Hormuz largely shut and U.S. allies rejecting calls to deploy warships to escort tankers through the key chokepoint.
Brent futures jumped US$3.07, or 3.1 per cent, to US$103.28 a barrel , while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained US$3.35, or 3.6 per cent, to US$96.85.
In the previous session, Brent futures settled 2.8 per cent lower while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slid 5.3 per cent after some vessels sailed through the critical waterway.
The Strait of Hormuz - a vital gateway for about 20 per cent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas trade - has been largely disrupted by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, now in its third week, raising concerns about supply shortages, higher energy costs and rising inflation.
“The risks remain stark: It only takes one Iranian militia to fire a missile or plant a mine on a passing tanker to reignite the entire situation,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.
Several U.S. allies rebuffed Donald Trump’s call on Monday to send warships to escort shipping through the strait, drawing criticism from the U.S. president, who accused Western partners of ingratitude after decades of support.
“For now, oil markets are fixated on the duration of the conflict, halted supplies at Hormuz, and eventually the damage this chaos will leave on oil infrastructure in the Gulf,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.
- Reuters