Air New Zealand Withdraws FY2026 Guidance Amid Jet Fuel Price Shock
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Air New Zealand ( (ANZFF) ) just unveiled an update.
Air New Zealand has suspended its FY2026 earnings guidance after extreme volatility in global jet fuel markets triggered by the recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East. The airline had previously indicated that second-half earnings would be broadly in line with, or modestly below, its first-half loss of $59 million, based on an assumed jet fuel price of about US$85 per barrel.
Since the conflict, jet fuel prices have surged to between US$150 and US$200 per barrel, driven not only by higher Brent crude but also by a sharply widened crack spread, which has jumped from roughly US$22 to as high as US$115 per barrel. While Air New Zealand is 83% hedged on Brent crude for the second half, it remains exposed to the crack spread on an estimated 2.9 million barrels of fuel consumption from March to June.
The airline now considers its previous fuel price assumptions inappropriate and expects the crisis to materially impact second-half earnings, prompting suspension of full-year guidance until fuel markets and operating conditions stabilise. In response, Air New Zealand has implemented initial fare increases and signalled that further pricing measures, along with potential network and schedule adjustments, may be required if elevated fuel costs persist, while ongoing cost reduction efforts are expected to partially offset these pressures.
More about Air New Zealand
Air New Zealand is the flag carrier airline of New Zealand, operating domestic and international passenger and cargo services across key regional and long-haul routes. Listed on the NZX, ASX and as an ADR, the airline is a major player in the Australasian aviation market, with earnings and capacity highly sensitive to global jet fuel prices and broader travel demand conditions.
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