Where Will Rigetti Computing Stock Be in 5 Years?

With shares down 19% since the start of 2026, Rigetti Computing(NASDAQ: RGTI) has lost much of the hype that pushed it to an all-time high of $56 in late 2025. Investors have generally lost interest in the quantum computing story, and markets are distracted by the geopolitical crisis in Iran, which is broadly hurting stock market performance.

That said, Rigetti's core thesis remains largely unchanged. Let's dig deeper into the pros and cons of the stock to decide how the company's shares might perform over the next half-decade and beyond.

Why did Rigetti Computing soar last year?

The past year was a breakout period for Rigetti Computing, and this was largely due to major advancements for the industry as a whole. In December 2024, Google announced the release of Willow, a state-of-the-art quantum chip capable of correcting its own mistakes and outperforming one of the world's most powerful supercomputers on a benchmark test.

Willow made investors optimistic that quantum could soon be ready for widespread commercialization (Google expects this by 2029). And the industry also got a boost in October when financial media outlets began reporting that the Trump administration was in talks to financially support quantum companies with the goal of maintaining a lead over China.

A rising tide tends to lift all boats. But Rigetti also stands out because of its unique business model, which focuses on creating quantum computing infrastructure, similar to the role Nvidia plays in generative artificial intelligence (AI).

Rigetti aims to design and produce the quantum chips and processors that other companies will use to build computers. But unlike Nvidia, which outsources its manufacturing to third parties, Rigetti boasts its own foundry, which will give it more control over its supply chain and potentially allow it to build custom quantum chips similar to the roles played by mainstream semiconductor giants like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing or Broadcom.

What went wrong?

Image source: Getty Images.

At the end of the day, a stock's performance will depend on how well investors think it can translate industry momentum and its company-specific advantages into future profits. And so far, Rigetti has posted lackluster operational performance, despite the great headlines.

Fourth-quarter revenue declined 18% year over year to roughly $1.9 million, which is exceptionally small for a publicly traded company. The figure pales in comparison to the $17.3 million it spent on research and development in the quarter. And Rigetti remains far from profitability, with operating losses ballooning by 22% to $18.5 million in the period.

It's normal for smaller growth-oriented stocks to lose money while they scale up their operations. But Rigetti computing is an extreme case because of the sheer size of its losses relative to sales and the fact that its top line isn't growing fast enough to fix the problem anytime soon.

With $443.5 million in combined cash and short-term investments that can be quickly sold for liquidity, management can probably manage the cash burn for the next few years. That said, investors who buy the stock now may eventually face equity dilution when the money runs out.

What will the next five years have in store?

Rigetti Computing gives investors a chance to get in on the ground floor of a burgeoning technology that could transform many aspects of the economy. That said, without solid fundamentals, any rallies in the stock price probably won't translate into lasting shareholder value.

Quantum computing is not ready for primetime yet. And investors who want exposure to the opportunity should probably look for more diversified plays, such as Alphabet, which has other business segments capable of subsidizing its quantum research. Otherwise, it might make sense to sit on the sidelines until more information becomes available.

Will Ebiefung has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Broadcom, Nvidia, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.