Dollarama Inc. (DOL:CA) National Bank Raises Valuation on Earnings Growth

Dollarama Inc. (DOL:CA) 

National Bank of Canada raised its 12 month target price on Dollarama to C$214 from C$203, reflecting growing confidence in the company’s earnings trajectory heading into Q3 FY2026. The analyst cited expectations of strong same-store sales growth, supported by continued consumer trade-down behavior as shoppers increasingly shift toward value retailers in response to persistent inflation and higher interest rates. Dollarama has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of this trend, consistently outperforming the broader retail sector.

National Bank highlighted the company’s aggressive store expansion strategy, which remains a key driver of topline growth. Dollarama continues to open new locations at a steady pace across Canada, supported by its scalable supply chain, strong real estate pipeline, and robust unit economics. The analyst noted that new stores are ramping up quickly and contributing meaningfully to revenue, which helps reinforce the retailer’s long-term growth profile.

National Bank also pointed to Dollarama’s resilient margins, driven by efficient inventory management, improved merchandising, and the advantageous mix shift toward higher-margin consumables and seasonal products. These factors combine to support a stronger outlook for cash flow generation and capital returns.

National Bank’s valuation increase reflects a optimistic view that Dollarama is well-positioned to deliver above-trend earnings growth, even in a challenging macroeconomic environment, due to its defensive business model, disciplined expansion, and enduring consumer value proposition.

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