Why Ford's Most Profitable Vehicle Sales Are on Fire -- and Not in a Good Way

If Ford Motor Company(NYSE: F) had a corny mascot for dealership commercials, I personally hope it would be a bright green cartoonish F-150 with dollar signs as eyeballs. Because that's exactly what the F-Series trucks are to the Detroit automaker: moneymakers.

While people may know the F-Series has been America's best-selling truck for decades, few might truly understand how much the truck means to Ford's bottom line -- and we're about to be reminded.

90% of profit? Really?

Ford manufactures roughly 20 distinct vehicle models globally, although it seems like more considering regionalization of vehicle designs and premium variations, or performance models. Understanding that those 20-ish models generate millions of sales across the world annually, it's difficult to fathom that the F-150 could generate most of the company's profits.

Image source: Ford Motor Company.

That's exactly what Morgan Stanley estimated way back in 2012 -- and don't kid yourself, not much has changed in the F-Series' ability to haul in big bucks. In 2012, Morgan Stanley estimated 90% of the company's global profits came from the truck, which is primarily sold only in North America.

That's simply all context to explain just how important the F-Series is for Ford and its investors. Unfortunately, the company is still recovering from a fire at a supplier's plant seven months ago that disrupted production of aluminum for the bodies of F-Series trucks and SUVs. Then a second fire at the same plant in November created a speed bump to recovery.

One example of the real-world impact is found in an Automotive News report about a dealership in Kansas City, Missouri, that is less than 20 miles away from the F-150 plant. The dealership said that March generally kicks off the spring selling season -- an important one for trucks -- with deals and incentives to further drive demand. In a typical year, the dealership would start with roughly 70 of Ford's highly valuable trucks, but this year it has nine.

Not only is that a significant problem, which could cost Ford up to $2 billion in total, but also the delayed recovery is going to be uneven with the auto company making up more lost volume during the second half of 2026. Investors are already seeing the impact, with F-Series sales declining 16% in the U.S. during the first quarter, compared to the prior year. Rivals GM posted Silverado sales as roughly flat, while the Ram truck of Stellantis soared 25% higher.

What it all means

Ford isn't sitting by idly. It's skipping its traditional summer shutdown at four plants assembling multiple variations of the highly profitable truck. It also added a third shift at one of its two F-150 production sites.

Long-term investors have less to worry about -- which is precisely the advantage of being a long-term investor. This is merely a speed bump, and Ford will recover as much of the lost volume as possible by the end of the year, mitigating full-year impact. That said, investors will notice the effect of the dwindling F-150 supply in earnings, because the supplier's plant fire continues to burn Ford, for now.

Daniel Miller has positions in Ford Motor Company and General Motors. The Motley Fool recommends General Motors and Stellantis. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.