The Next SpaceX? Top Analyst Suggests 2 Space Stocks to Buy
“Space, the final frontier…” We all know those words from the most famous opening narration in all of speculative fiction. But recent events are bringing them to life.
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NASA sent the Artemis II mission around the moon this past April, carrying astronauts beyond low Earth orbit for the first time since 1972. And Elon Musk’s SpaceX has been charting a new course – the development of space travel exploration. His company’s capsules have provided flights to the International Space Station, while its test flights of the reusable Starship rocket system are demonstrating the next step for mankind.
For investors, the big news was the SpaceX IPO last week. The company entered the public trading realm with a trillion-dollar-plus valuation and turned Musk into the world’s first trillionaire – but more importantly, it highlighted the viability of raising space exploration capital in the public markets.
At KeyBanc, top analyst Michael Leshock, who is rated among the top 4% of Wall Street’s analysts, believes several forces are coming together to create a favorable backdrop for space companies.
“SPCX has proved our longstanding view that if you hold the keys to space, you are going to be a dominant player… We see compelling opportunities across the rapidly growing space sector. NASA activity is accelerating at a pace not seen since the Apollo era, while launch supply remains structurally constrained (even assuming Starship success) amid exponential growth in satellites and space-based applications. Given supportive macro, budgets, and increasing institutional interest, we favor well-capitalized commercial space companies with idiosyncratic growth vectors aligned with national security and NASA priorities and enablers of the broader space ecosystem,” Leshock opined.
With that backdrop in mind, Leshock has picked two space stocks he believes are well-positioned to capitalize on the industry’s expansion. A look at the TipRanks database shows that the broader analyst community is also bullish, with both names carrying Strong Buy consensus ratings.
Rocket Lab USA(RKLB)
We’ll start with Rocket Lab, a space launch company that bills itself as a leader in delivering end-to-end launch services, capable of putting small spacecraft and satellites into orbit, on time and on budget. The company’s specialty is providing dedicated launch services for small satellites using rockets optimized for light-payload missions. Rocket Lab helped establish this niche in response to a real need in the industry – a cost-effective platform for putting micro- and small-sized satellites into low-Earth orbit, or LEO. Small, LEO satellites have a wide range of uses, and are prominent in communications, broadband connectivity, Earth observation, and remote sensing.
That range of uses leads naturally into Rocket Lab’s customer base, which includes satcom providers, communications firms, imaging companies – and the government agencies that contract with them. Rocket Lab allows them to send up the orbital payloads they need to support their services.
Rocket Lab’s operations are based on its family of launch vehicles. The chief of these is the company’s Electron rocket, a proprietary small-payload rocket capable of carrying more than 300 kilograms to orbit. Rocket Lab has also developed recovery and reuse capabilities for Electron’s first stage. The Electron system has made, to date, 88 launches and deployed over 260 satellites. The company has two additional systems, the HASTE, which stands for Hypersonic Accelerator Suborbital Test Electron, a suborbital testbed system that has made 9 launches, and the Neutron, a medium-lift platform, designed to put a maximum payload of 13,000 kilograms into LEO. The Neutron is still under development, and is intended as a challenger to SpaceX’s higher-profile rockets.
Rocket Lab currently operates at a net loss – not unusual for cutting-edge tech companies. In the last reported quarter, 1Q26, Rocket Lab reported a GAAP net loss of 7 cents per share – but that was a penny better than had been expected. Also in Q1, the company showed a year-over-year revenue increase of 63%, reaching $200.3 million at the top line – and beating the forecast by just under $11 million. Looking ahead, the company finished Q1 with a work backlog worth $2.2 billion, and with $2 billion in available liquidity.
That backlog is supported by a number of recent contract wins for Rocket Lab. These include a $30 million contract with Anduril Industries, an important defense contractor, to conduct hypersonic test flights using the HASTE vehicle, and a $90 million contract with the US Space Force to put up two geostationary satellites that will carry the Heimdall space domain awareness payload.
Turning back to KeyBanc’s Leshock, we find the analyst taking an upbeat view of Rocket Lab, citing the company’s unique position within the space ecosystem and multiple avenues for long-term growth.
“SPCX’s premium valuation shows the value of having in-house access to space and the myriad of potential end-use applications that come with that capability. We continue to expect these applications to evolve over time and believe RKLB is among the best positioned to adapt to the dynamic market given its satellite design/manufacturing and launch heritage. This allows RKLB the ability to construct a satellite constellation of its own when the time is right, and ultimately add high-margin, subscription-based revenue streams in the future. In the NT, RKLB continues to execute on its record >$2.2B backlog as of 1Q-end (+20% q/ q, >100% y/y), while additional contract awards would provide upside to our estimates, all else equal,” Leshock wrote
Quantifying his stance, Leshock gives RKLB shares an Overweight (i.e., Buy) rating, along with a price target of $135, suggesting that the shares will gain 29% over the next 12 months. (To watch Leshock’s track record, click here)
Overall, Rocket Lab earns a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 13 recent analyst reviews, including 10 Buys and 3 Holds. However, after a 296% run over the past 12 months, the $108.70 average price target leaves room for a more modest gain of just under 4% over the next year. (See RKLB stock forecast)
Firefly Aerospace (FLY)
Next on our list is a space and defense tech company, Firefly Aerospace. Firefly was established in 2017, less than a decade ago – but in that short time, the company has already achieved some notable milestones. Last year, it became the first commercial company to achieve a fully successful Moon landing with its Blue Ghost lunar lander, and it is also the only company to successfully launch a satellite into Earth orbit on just one day’s notice.
Like Rocket Lab above, Firefly specializes in small- and medium-lift launch vehicles; aside from these, the company also develops and sends up orbital vehicles and lunar landers. Firefly uses common, readily available, and flight-proven technology. This off-the-shelf approach allows Firefly to meet the goals of critical space missions quickly and on-budget.
Firefly’s chief platform is its Alpha rocket, the same platform that launched a satellite on a mere 24-hour notice. The Alpha is capable of putting a one-ton (1,030 kilogram, to be precise) payload into low-Earth orbit. The main launch sites are on the east and west coasts of the US, and the company has developed a number of resilient launch sites. Firefly is also setting up a ‘deployable’ launch system that will allow the Alpha to be launched from any location with just a week’s notice.
The company’s second rocket platform, Eclipse, is a medium-lift vehicle currently under development. Designed to carry payloads of up to 16,300 kilograms to low-Earth orbit, Eclipse is expected to enter service next year. Beyond launch vehicles, Firefly has also made its mark in lunar exploration through its Blue Ghost spacecraft, which became the first commercial lunar lander to complete a fully successful Moon landing. The platform gives customers the ability to fly customizable payloads on private missions to the lunar surface.
Looking at financial performance, we find that Firefly logged a 45% year-over-year revenue increase in 1Q26. The company’s $80.9 million top line was also $6 million above the forecast. Firefly’s bottom line, the -$0.46 non-GAAP EPS, was 6 cents per share better than expected.
In recent months, Firefly has logged some important contract wins. During the first quarter, the company noted that it had won a $109 million contract from the Space Force for an engineering change under an existing services contract for expanded data center delivery. And more recently, the company won a $75 million contract from NASA’s famous Jet Propulsion Lab for the delivery of four drones to the Lunar south pole, as part of the MoonFall program. Launch for this contract is set no earlier than 2028.
Leshock, who covers the stock for KeyBanc, sees several factors supporting Firefly’s long-term growth story, including its expanding role in NASA’s lunar programs and the potential of its launch business.
“FLY is among the top commercial space companies with exposure to NASA’s lunar initiatives, and execution on its launch business could yield LT upside. We modestly increase our FY26/FY27 revenue estimates to reflect the recent $75M MoonFall NASA contract award, which showcases the potential value of its Elytra spacecraft. We acknowledge that FLY’s launch business is capital intensive and in the early stages of ramping cadence, though it has seen recent successes, like Alpha Flight 07, and could become an industry leader upon execution over time. FLY’s Eclipse rocket (NET 2027), if successful, would be a key player in the medium-lift market, while its Alpha rocket would continue to serve the small- to medium-lift market in the immediate term… We believe FLY is making the right moves to position itself to be a strong player in the space industry over the long run,” Leshock commented.
This is another stock that gets an Overweight (Buy) rating from Leshock, whose $50 price target implies about 61% upside over the next year.
The broader analyst community is optimistic, too. FLY stock sports a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 8 analyst reviews, including 6 Buys and 2 Holds. With an average price target of $43, analysts see ~39% upside over the coming year. (See FLY stock forecast)
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
