Here's How FEMSA is Placed Just Ahead of Q3 Earnings Season

Fomento Economico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V.FMX, or FEMSA, is slated to report third-quarter 2025 earnings on Oct. 28. The company is likely to have witnessed top-line growth in the quarter under review.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FMX’s third-quarter revenues is pegged at $11.17 billion, indicating growth of 7.3% from the year-ago quarter's reported figure.

The consensus estimate for FMX’s quarterly earnings of $1.06 per share indicates a 22.6% decline from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The consensus estimate for earnings has moved up 2.8% in the past seven days.

In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 53.9%. It has a negative trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 33.7%, on average.

Key Factors to Influence FMX’s Q3 Results

FEMSA has been experiencing growth across its business units, backed by effective growth strategies. The company has been making investments in digital and technology-driven initiatives, alongside seeing strength in OXXO Gas. FMX’s solid growth prospects, driven by its strategy of creating a distribution platform in the United States, bode well. Investments in digital offerings, loyalty programs and fintech platforms bode well. 

FEMSA is gaining pace in the digital space through its tech and innovation business unit — Digital@FEMSA. The unit has been focused on building a value-added digital and financial ecosystem for end customers and businesses. It has also been inclined toward enabling and leveraging the strategic assets of FEMSA’s core business verticals. Its OXXO digital wallet, OXXO Premia and loyalty program have also been performing well.

FMX is on track with its strategy of creating a distribution platform in the United States through the expansion of its footprint in the specialized distribution industry. The company’s venture in the specialized distribution industry is linked with its plan of investing in adjacent businesses, leveraging capabilities across different markets and providing an opportunity for growth. Such efforts are expected to have contributed to its top-line performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

However, the company has been witnessing margin pressures, which are expected to have continued in the third quarter. It has been battling a challenging landscape in Mexico for a while. FEMSA’s performance is expected to have been hurt by the impacts of persistent cost pressures, including inflationary impacts, labor expense increases and supply-chain inefficiencies. Any inflation in steel and aluminum prices is expected to have been concerning. Such limitations are likely to have marred the company’s profitability in the to-be-reported quarter.

FMX’s Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for FEMSA this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

FEMSA has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

Price Performance & Valuation

FMX shares have lost 9.3% in the past six months compared with the industry’s drop of 1.1%. The stock has lagged the Zacks Consumer Staples sector’s 3.2% decline and the S&P 500’s 22.9% growth.

From the valuation standpoint, FEMSA is trading at a forward 12-month P/E multiple of 22.43X, exceeding the industry’s average of 18.36X but below the S&P 500’s average of 23.39X.

Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are some companies that, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Estee LauderEL currently has an Earnings ESP of +15.65% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register a jump in the top line when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2026 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Estee Lauder’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $3.38 billion, which suggests a rise of 0.5% from the prior-year quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Estee Lauder’s quarterly earnings per share stands at 16 cents, which reflects an increase of 14.3% from the year-ago period. The consensus estimate has gone up a couple of cents in the past seven days. EL has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 71.5%, on average.

Corteva CTVA currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.82% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register top-line growth when it reports third-quarter 2025 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Corteva’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.49 billion, which implies a 7% increase from the prior-year quarter. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Corteva’s bottom line has been stable in the past 30 days at a loss of 49 cents per share, which is in line with the year-ago period. CTVA has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 4.4%, on average.

Altria GroupMO currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.04% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is expected to register an increase in its bottom line when it reports third-quarter 2025 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MO’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $5.32 billion, which indicates a dip of 0.4% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

The consensus mark for Altria Group’s quarterly earnings has been stable in the past 30 days at $1.44 per share. The estimate indicates growth of 4.4% from the year-ago quarter. MO delivered an earnings surprise of 3.3% in the trailing four quarters, on average.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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