Is Tesla Worth Buying Ahead of Q1 Earnings? Key Things to Note
Tesla TSLA is slated to release first-quarter 2026 results on April 22, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at 36 cents per share and $21.9 billion, respectively.
The earnings estimate for the to-be-reported quarter has been revised downward by a cent over the past seven days. The bottom-line projection, however, indicates year-over-year growth of 33%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 13%.
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For full-year 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for TSLA’s revenues is pegged at $101 billion, implying a rise of 6.5% year over year. The consensus mark for 2026 EPS is pegged at $2.02, suggesting an uptick of around 22% on a year-over-year basis.
In the trailing four quarters, this electric vehicle (EV) and technology giant topped EPS estimates on two occasions for as many misses, with the average negative earnings surprise being 7.66%.
Q1 Earnings Whispers for TSLA
Our proprietary model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Tesla this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
TSLA has an Earnings ESP of -19.36% and a Zacks Rank #3.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Shaping TSLA’s Q1 Results
In the first quarter, Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles (including 341,893 Model 3/Y and 16,130 other models), beating our model estimate of 343,949 units. Deliveries declined sequentially but rose a modest 2.2% year over year. Tesla also managed to edge past BYD Co LtdBYDDY in first-quarter EV deliveries and reclaim the top spot. BYD’s pure EV sales declined 25% year over year to 310,389 units, while total new-energy vehicle volumes dropped 30%, reflecting softer demand in China.
We expect Tesla’s total automotive revenues to increase 7% in the to-be-reported quarter to roughly $15 billion. Year-over-year growth in vehicle deliveries and automotive sales is likely to support the company’s upcoming results. Meanwhile, Tesla’s energy storage deployments totaled 8.8 GWh in the first quarter of 2026, missing our estimate of 12.45 GWh. It declined both on a sequential and yearly basis. Nonetheless, this is the most lucrative segment of the company, and our model expects gross profit from the Energy Generation and Storage business to grow 13% year over year in the to-be-reported quarter.
Meanwhile, Tesla’s massive capital expenditure and R&D expenses are likely to dent cash flows and operating profit. The company expects capex to exceed $20 billion in 2026—more than double last year’s levels. This will indeed hurt near-term financials.
Tesla Price Performance & Valuation
Year to date, shares of Tesla have declined 11%, underperforming the industry.
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Tesla stock is quite overvalued. Going by its price/sales ratio, the company is trading at a forward sales multiple of 14.33, higher compared with the industry as well as its own 5-year average.
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How to Play TSLA Stock Now
While first-quarter volumes were slightly higher year over year, the broader trend is concerning. Deliveries have now fallen for two straight years, with the decline accelerating from about 1% in 2024 to more than 8% in 2025. An aging vehicle lineup, limited new launches, intensifying competition and the withdrawal of the $7,500 federal tax credit are weighing on demand.
To offset this slowdown, Tesla is pivoting aggressively toward autonomous vehicles (AVs) and artificial intelligence (AI). However, these remain long-cycle bets with uncertain timelines. The company operates unsupervised robotaxi service in Austin, Dallas and Houston, while supervised service in the San Fransico Bay Area. In the robotaxi front, Tesla has a lot of catching up to do with Alphabet’s GOOGL Waymo, which is the frontrunner in this space. Waymo is already operating Level 4 systems in multiple cities, underscoring a meaningful gap in both capability and scale.
Scaling robotaxis beyond pilot programs and turning AI-led projects into consistent revenue streams will take time. That’s the trade-off. Tesla’s next chapter could be transformational, but it is capital-intensive, high-risk, and likely years away from delivering material financial returns.
Given this backdrop, Tesla doesn’t seem like a buy now, especially after its around 15% rise last week. Existing investors can retain the stock if they believe in Musk’s vision, but for new investors, this doesn’t seem like the right entry point.
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