Is Kimco Realty Stock a Smart Buy Before Q1 Earnings Release?
Kimco Realty Corporation KIM is slated to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 30, before the opening bell. The company’s quarterly results are likely to display year-over-year growth in revenues and funds from operations (FFO) per share.
In the last reported quarter, this Jericho, NY-based retail real estate investment trust (REIT) reported FFO per share of 44 cents, which met the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results reflected higher same-property NOI, driven by improved occupancy and a rise in minimum rents.
Over the preceding four quarters, Kimco’s FFO per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on three occasions and met in the remaining period, the average beat being 2.36%. This is depicted in the graph below:
Kimco Realty Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Kimco Realty Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Kimco Realty Corporation Quote
US Retail Real Estate Market in Q1
The first quarter reflected softness in the U.S. retail market amid macro uncertainty. Net absorption turned negative, national vacancy was higher, while seasonality played foul. Occupancy dipped, yet rents held up high due to tight supply. Unemployment remained lower, leading to higher retail sales, though the future looks gloomy if oil prices continue to surge.
Per the Cushman & Wakefield report, national shopping center absorption came in at negative 4.6 million square feet (msf), reversing from 3.8 msf gain in the fourth quarter of 2025. The national vacancy rise was ubiquitous owing to extreme weather conditions, standing at 5.9%, up 10 basis points quarter on quarter, though well below its historical high of 7.4%.
On the consumer spending front, low unemployment rates at 4.3% and record low jobless claims, coupled with wage growth, have outdone inflationary pressures. Real spending inched up 1.3% higher year on year, reflecting positive consumer activity. However, risks persist. The ripple effect of high oil prices has led to fertilizer costs shooting up by 77% since mid-December 2025. This will eventually translate into higher food production and distribution costs, reducing consumers’ power to purchase. As such, discount-led retailers stand to gain at the cost of discretionary retail.
Factors to Consider Ahead of KIM’s Upcoming Results
In the first quarter, Kimco Realty is likely to have benefited from its portfolio of grocery-anchored, necessity-based shopping centers in strong suburban markets. Its diverse tenant mix and robust leasing pipeline are expected to have supported steady revenues, aided by limited new supply and stable rent levels. Kimco’s focus on developing mixed-use assets clustered in strong economic metropolitan statistical areas is likely to have given it an edge by driving net asset value.
However, broader retail softness, marked by negative absorption, slightly higher vacancy and seasonal pressures, may have weighed on occupancy. High interest expenses are anticipated to have affected Kimco’s performance to some extent during the quarter.
Q1 Projections for KIM
The company’s top line is expected to have improved due to the above tailwinds. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KIM’s quarterly revenues stands at $543.1 million, implying 1.2% growth from the prior-year reported number.
Our estimate for net revenues from rental properties stands at $537.5 million, indicating a 1.2% increase year over year. However, we expect KIM’s leased occupancy to decrease 50 basis points sequentially to 95.9% in the to-be-reported quarter. We estimate a year-over-year increase of 6.2% in its first-quarter interest expenses.
Before the first-quarter earnings release, the company’s activities were inadequate to gain analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly FFO per share has remained unchanged at 45 cents for more than three months. It implies a rise of 2.3% year over year.
What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for KIM
Our proven model does not conclusively predict a surprise in terms of FFO per share for Kimco this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an FFO beat, which is not the case here.
Kimco currently has an Earnings ESP of -0.87% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are two stocks from the retail REIT sector — Realty Income O and Simon Property Group SPG — that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to report a surprise this quarter.
Realty Income, slated to release quarterly numbers on May 6, has an Earnings ESP of +0.60% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Simon Property Group, scheduled to report quarterly numbers on May 11, has an Earnings ESP of +0.78% and carries a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.
Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO), a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.
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