BofA sees limited impact to Eli Lilly’s franchise from Novo’s GLP-1 price update

BofA says that today’s announcement that Novo Nordisk (NVO) plans to slash GLP-1 list prices offers a flashy headline, but in the firm’s view the update is unlikely to have any material impact on the U.S. market. BofA sees today’s move as an attempt to reduce copay/coinsurance costs to patients in settings where that figure is calculated of list/WAC price. More broadly, the firm thinks it’s fair for investors to wonder if/when commercial reimbursement of GLP-1’s could become more commonplace, with BofA channel checks suggesting this may may hinge on convergence of PBM price and consumer cash price. Taken in aggregate, the firm sees limited impact to Eli Lilly’s (LLY) GLP-1 franchise given no clear indication Novo is moving more aggressively on lower net pricing in the commercial insurance channel, greater anticipated contribution from cash pay and U.S. government channels which are unimpacted by today’s update. BofA maintains a Buy rating on Eli Lilly.

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