Key Points
SpaceX reported impressive revenue growth last quarter, but its AI segment requires significant capex.
Oklo is in the early stages and just had its first quarter with revenue to report.
Oklo offers more upside due to its size, while SpaceX carries less risk.
Disruptive companies can make for profitable investments, and two of the most popular stocks in this category are Space Exploration Technologies(NASDAQ: SPCX) and Oklo(NYSE: OKLO). SpaceX is a disruptor in three areas: space launches, satellite internet, and AI. Oklo designs fast-fission power plants that can use nuclear waste as fuel.
Each of these stocks is volatile, but if you're looking for upside, the math is clear on which is the better choice.
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Growth for SpaceX is already priced in
SpaceX released its first earnings report (for Q2 2026) as a public company on Aug. 4, and the numbers were a mixed bag. On the positive side, revenue increased 92% year over year to $7.8 billion. Over half of that comes from its connectivity segment, driven by Starlink internet service. Starlink also had 12 million subscribers at the end of the quarter, compared to six million a year prior.
The space company reported a net loss of $541 million for the quarter, down from $1 billion in Q2 2025. However, capex continues to grow, reaching $18.4 billion, while free cash flow (FCF) remains deep in the red. Over the first half of 2026, SpaceX had roughly negative $25 billion in FCF. With $100 billion in cash and cash equivalents, SpaceX effectively has about two years of runway.
The issue with SpaceX stock, especially in terms of its upside, is the valuation. It's already one of the world's largest companies, with a market cap of $1.76 trillion, and it trades at about 72 times sales (as of Aug. 11). SpaceX projects its total addressable market at $28.5 trillion, but that estimate should be taken with a grain of salt, as it relies on massive enterprise and consumer AI expansion.
Oklo is a speculative bet on AI power demand
Oklo is a company with considerable hype surrounding its potential to help meet AI-driven energy demands. Its Aurora powerhouses are small, have the ability to produce power for decades without refueling, can operate without needing cooling water, and convert nuclear waste to clean energy.
However, Oklo is currently constructing and getting regulatory approval for Aurora powerhouses, and it's targeting late 2027 to early 2028 for deployment of the first commercial power plant. This is still a company in the early stages, and its financials reflect that. Its most recent earnings for Q2 2026 were the first time it reported any revenue, totaling $1.2 million. It ended the quarter with a net loss of $48.5 million.
Which stock has more upside?
There's a stark difference in market cap between SpaceX and Oklo, and that's the main factor in determining which has more growth potential. Oklo's market cap is about $9 billion. At that size, a single commercial contract can drive significant growth. If enough goes right, its share price could potentially double, triple, or more. It would take a lot more good news for SpaceX to deliver those kinds of results, given that it's already worth $1.76 trillion.
This doesn't mean Oklo is the better investment. Although both are volatile, SpaceX is the more proven business and carries less risk. If you're looking for a high-risk, high-reward investment, it's worth considering a small position in Oklo.
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Lyle Daly has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
