Alcoa Gears Up to Post Q3 Earnings: What Lies Ahead for the Stock?
Alcoa Corporation AA is likely to register an increase in the top line from last year’s quarterly reading when it reports third-quarter 2026 earnings on Oct. 15, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.61 billion, indicating an increase of 20.7% from the prior-year’s quarterly figure.
The bottom line of this leading producer of bauxite, alumina and aluminum products is also expected to have increased from the earlier year’s quarterly figure. Over the past 30 days, the consensus estimate for earnings per share grew 5.8%. The figure indicates a surge of more than 100% from last year’s quarterly level.
The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 24.5%, on average, beating estimates in two quarters while missing in the other two.
Key Factors to Note Ahead of AA’s Results
Strategic inventory repositioning initiatives within North America are expected to have benefited Alcoa’s Aluminum segment in the third quarter of 2026. Also, the restart of the San Ciprián smelter in Spain, Alumar in Brazil and Lista in Norway is likely to have aided the segment’s sales.
For the third quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Aluminum segment’s third-party sales is pegged at $3.16 billion, indicating a 54.9% increase from the year-ago number. The consensus mark for the Alumina segment’s total sales is pegged at $3.08 billion, indicating a 50.2% rise from the year-ago reported number.
Synergistic gains from partnerships and acquisitions made by the company are expected to have boosted revenues. In March 2025, Alcoa and IGNIS EQT entered into a joint venture agreement. Under the agreement, AA owns 75% of the equity and continues to operate the San Ciprián production site. In August 2024, Alcoa acquired Alumina Limited. This acquisition strengthened its position as a pure-play, upstream aluminum company worldwide.
However, Alcoa’s Alumina segment’s results are expected to put up a weak show due to lower bauxite offtake volumes and pricing under supply agreements. The consensus mark for the Alumina segment’s third-party sales is pegged at $599 million, implying a 28.8% decrease from the year-ago number. The consensus mark for the Alumina segment’s total sales is pegged at $1.14 billion, indicating a 20.3% decline from the year-ago number.
The escalating cost of sales due to higher input costs poses a threat to Alcoa’s bottom line. Given the company’s extensive geographic presence, its operations are subject to global political risks and foreign exchange headwinds. A stronger U.S. dollar is likely to have hurt Alcoa's overseas business in the quarter.
Earnings Whispers for AA
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for AA this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: AA has an Earnings ESP of +1.72% as the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at $1.72 per share, higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.65. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: AA currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. SWK has an Earnings ESP of +2.55% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. The company is slated to release third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 4.
Stanley Black’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 23.3%.
Deere & CompanyDE has an Earnings ESP of +8.77% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is slated to release third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 25.
Deere & Company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark in one, the average surprise being 11.1%.
Allegion plcALLE has an Earnings ESP of +0.98% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is slated to release third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 22.
Allegion’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters while missing the mark in the other, the average surprise being 1%.
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