Key Points
Oil prices have recently dipped below $100 a barrel amid hopes of peace in the Middle East.
There are conflicting reports about how close the two sides are to a peace deal.
Oil companies will likely benefit from higher prices even if there is a deal.
Brent crude oil, the global oil market benchmark price, has dipped below $100 a barrel in recent trading. That's well under its war-fueled peak of $119.50 a barrel the day Iran attacked oil infrastructure across the Persian Gulf, inflicting damage against key liquefied natural gas facilities in Qatar.
However, while crude prices have dipped, I wouldn't bet on them staying where they are. Here's why and what that means for oil stocks.
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The calm before the potential storm
Oil prices have fallen from their highs due to the de-escalation in the Middle East from dual ceasefires between the U.S. and Iran and Israel and Lebanon. However, it's a fragile peace that might not last much longer. Iran still hasn't reopened the Strait of Hormuz because it believes the U.S. blockade violates the agreement. The U.S. has seized an Iranian-linked vessel attempting to pass through the blockade.
The initial ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran expires this week. There are conflicting reports about whether the two sides will meet again in Pakistan to work out a peace deal. While President Trump was optimistic about reaching a deal early Tuesday, he also stated that the U.S. will resume bombing Iran if the U.S. doesn't reach an agreement with Iran before the ceasefire expires.
A resumption of the war would likely fuel a major spike in oil prices. It would lead to an even longer closure of the Strait, risk additional damage to oil infrastructure in the Gulf, and could trigger further supply disruptions, such as a closure of the Bab el-Mandeb. A peace deal, on the other hand, would likely cause oil prices to sell off, at least initially.
Oil stocks will thrive either way
The price of Brent oil started the year at around $60 a barrel. That drove most oil companies to build their budgets under the assumption that oil would be between $60 and $70 a barrel this year. As a result, they're reaping a windfall now that crude prices are much higher. A resumption of the war would likely push oil even higher and keep it elevated for much longer, prolonging their earnings windfall.
However, even if the war ends this week and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil prices still won't drop back down into the $60s anytime soon. That's because it will take months before things normalize. Several countries in the Persian Gulf had to shut in production due to a lack of storage capacity. According to some estimates, it will take up to seven months to restart these wells and get them back to their pre-war production levels. As a result, the world will continue to experience a supply shortfall long after the war ends. Further, many countries have been burning through their emergency stockpiles, which they'll need to refill, driving additional oil demand in the coming months.
The prospect of higher oil prices for longer, even with a peace deal, will benefit oil companies, given that they budgeted for much lower prices. For example, Chevron(NYSE: CVX)expected to produce an additional $12.5 billion in free cash flow this year at $70 oil, driven by recently completed expansion projects, its Hess acquisition, and cost-savings initiatives. It will undoubtedly blow past that target. Meanwhile, it expects to grow its free cash flow at a more than 10% annual rate through 2030, assuming $70 oil. Given the likely lasting impact the war could have on the oil market, Chevron could exceed that target as well.
ExxonMobil(NYSE: XOM) has also built its business to thrive at lower oil prices. It's investing heavily in its advantaged resources (the lowest-cost, highest-margin assets) and executing a major structural cost-savings strategy. These initiatives have Exxon on track to grow its annual earnings by $25 billion and its cash flow by $35 billion by 2030, at constant pricing and margins compared to 2024. That positions the oil giant to generate $145 billion in surplus cash over the plan period at $65 oil. Exxon will obliterate that target if oil remains higher for longer.
Oil price could go higher for longer even if the war ends soon
Brent oil has recently dipped amid hopes that the war with Iran is nearing an end. However, there are conflicting reports about whether a deal is close. Even if there is one, the war will continue to impact the oil market for months to come. That positions oil companies like Exxon and Chevron to significantly exceed their growth expectations, making them look like compelling long-term investments either way.
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Matt DiLallo has positions in Chevron. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chevron. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
