A home for sale in Montreal in March, 2025.Christinne Muschi/The Canadian Press
The global oil price shock tied to the war in Iran continues to raise the risk of higher interest rates for both fixed and variable mortgages.
Tensions in the Middle East reached a fresh peak on Thursday after Israeli and Iranian strikes on key energy infrastructure in the region sent oil and natural gas prices soaring. Concern that climbing energy prices could reignite inflation has been putting upward pressure on bond yields, which affect the level of fixed mortgage rates on new loans.
The risk of higher rates is growing for variable-rate mortgage holder, as well. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada delivered another widely anticipated rate hold, but the move was dominated by speculation of whether a hike is on its way because of the worsening Middle East crisis.
The BoC headline rate remains at 2.25 per cent, but markets have been pricing in expectations of a quarter-point hike by the end of 2026.
On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada said it’s ready to adjust monetary policy in response to the oil price shock, if needed. But economists have cautioned that it’s too soon to jump to the conclusion that the central bank will hike rates.
CIBC deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal, for example, said in an interview it’s likely that the U.S. campaign in the Middle East will be short-lived because of its devastating economic impact.
The Bank of Canada is also keeping a wary eye over a number of indicators that signal the domestic economy is struggling. GDP contracted in the last quarter of 2025. The labour market shed 84,000 jobs in February, far worse than economists expected. And the housing market has been in a prolonged rut.
All this could further prevent a BoC rate hike and keep variable rate mortgages steady.
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Mortgage rates are sourced by Ratehub.ca. For a comprehensive list of today’s mortgage rates for each term/type, visit ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates.
Ratehub.ca is a mortgage-rate comparison marketplace and mortgage brokerage. It helps millions of Canadians compare and obtain the best mortgage rates, credit cards, insurance, deposits and loan products.
Rates shown are the lowest available for each term/type and category (insured versus uninsured) as of market close on Thursday.
