The Middle East conflict has shifted from air strikes to a grinding logistics war, but its grip on Canadian interest rates is tightening rather than fading.
Bond yields spiked in late March when U.S. President Donald Trump said he intended to “destroy” Iran’s energy infrastructure, and Tehran warned it would retaliate against U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf. At that time, markets priced in a higher risk that energy inflation could spill into broader, stickier price pressures.
Even as those war scares cooled, the continuing U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and Iran’s moves to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are now drawing down global oil stockpiles, creating a slow-burning supply squeeze.
For Canadian savers, the result is a modest but important repricing at the two‑ to five‑year part of the curve: Short‑term savings rates are mostly flat, but institutions are paying slightly more for longer‑dated deposits as they hedge against the risk that today’s “energy surcharge” on inflation lasts well beyond the next few CPI reports.
Rates in brief
On the cash side, promotional offers still dominate the headlines. The highest promo savings rate is now 4.65 per cent at Bank of Montreal for four months, while Scotiabank is offering a higher headline rate, but that rate is limited to balances over $0.5M.
The next rung down is 4.60 per cent, a tie shared by Royal Bank (three months), CIBC (three months) and Simplii Financial (five months). These promo rates currently match or beat the best available variable mortgage rates of about 3.3 to 3.4 per cent, but alas, they are temporary.
Standard, non‑promo savings rates are unchanged at the top of the leaderboard: 2.85 per cent at Saven Financial, followed by 2.80 per cent at Oaken Financial.
GICs show where markets are most worried about medium‑term inflation:
- 1‑year GIC: 3.60 per cent at Achieva Financial, with 3.55 per cent at Saven Financial just behind.
- 2‑year GIC: 3.80 per cent at Achieva Financial, with a 3.70 per cent tie among WealthONE, MCAN, MAXA, Oaken, Outlook and Saven.
- 3‑year GIC: 3.85 per cent at WealthONE and Equitable Bank, edging out 3.84 per cent at HomeEquity Bank.
- 5‑year GIC: 4.05 per cent at WealthONE, followed by 4.00 per cent at EQ Bank, MCAN, Oaken and Saven.
Compared with late April, the front end (savings and 1‑year GICs) is flat to slightly softer, while three- and five‑year yields have nudged higher, a sign that investors are demanding a bit more compensation to tie up money through a period of uncertain inflation.
A slow‑burn blockade economy
The original scare came when war headlines and Mr. Trump’s comments pushed yields sharply higher in a matter of days; the new risk is slower and harder to dismiss.
As oil stockpiles fall and transport routes stay disrupted, higher fuel and freight costs can feed through into food, manufactured goods and services, the parts of the CPI basket that central banks watch most closely. Markets are pricing a rise from today’s 2.25 per cent policy rate toward 2.75 per cent by the end of 2026 and about 3 per cent in 2027.
For savers who can move beyond cash‑like terms, that combination of modest hikes and “higher‑for‑longer” policy means three‑ to five‑year GICs may offer a premium over cash, even without a return to the ultra‑low pre‑2022 rate regime.
Interest rates are provided by WOWA.ca, which gathers, aggregates and freely disseminates data on mortgage rates, savings accounts and GIC rates from 50+ Canadian financial institutions.
Ali Nassimi is a financial writer and analyst at WOWA.ca, a Canadian personal finance platform.
