Homes for sale in Calgary, where the real estate market has already suffering. Realtors say the Alberta independence movement could add more pressure in the months ahead.Amir Salehi/The Globe and Mail
Is it controversial to hang a Canadian flag on your home when you list it for sale?
As Alberta’s separatist movement advances toward a referendum to vote on independence in October, Calgary realtor Rebecca Chamberlain is recommending that home sellers avoid it.
She recently advised a client to take a Canadian flag down from the property they were trying to sell – something she says she would also do for any political or religious symbol that could present an issue for a potential buyer.
“It’s just another thing for people to be divided about,” said Ms. Chamberlain, who added that she didn’t want to be a platform for either political belief. In this case, her client specifically wanted to sell to someone who was against separation.
“I was like, ‘Okay, I just care about getting you the most money.’”
Realtors and analysts say the separation movement will only add to a backdrop of uncertainty that has brought home price growth to a screeching halt this year. Some realtors believe that the independence movement has not had a material impact on prices yet, but expect that the market could decline closer to the vote, and could take bigger hits if the referendum is successful.
The Calgary and Edmonton markets have already been suffering from a recent glut of condo supply and a slowdown in both interprovincial and international migration. Last summer, the two cities were outperforming most major Canadian markets, with 7-per-cent year-over-year price growth in Edmonton and 4 per cent in Calgary in July, 2025, according to statistics from RPS-Wahi, a digital real estate platform and valuation service provider.
This summer, Calgary has posted four consecutive months of 1-per-cent price declines on a year-over-year basis, and Edmonton has slowed to just 1-per-cent growth in June.
Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist for the Calgary Real Estate Board, said the uncertainty around business investment, the job market and the risk of people wanting to move out of Alberta will slow the property market’s recovery.
She said Calgary’s condo market, which is seeing prices decline quickly as it deals with an massive amount of new supply, will need a large increase in migrants to stabilize.
“If we’re going to go through an official referendum, that’s a risk and weigh on migration flows,” she said.
She pointed to Quebec, a province that saw an outflow of residents and lagging property prices for decades during separatist movements throughout the 1970s to 1990s.
Opinion: There is more bad news coming for separatists in Alberta
A June poll by the Calgary Chamber of Commerce found that half of its member businesses said they would leave if separation was successful. The Chamber estimated that a split could cost the province billions of dollars in economic losses.
An exodus would be a potential reversal from the “Alberta is Calling” campaign, launched by former premier Jason Kenney in 2023, which tried to attract Canadians by touting its relatively lower real estate prices and higher salaries. Tens of thousands of interprovincial migrants – mostly from Ontario and B.C. – moved to the province around that time.
Ms. Lurie said most of the focus in the real estate industry is on the result of October’s referendum. A successful vote for the separatist movement could result in noticeable declines in housing values, she said.
It’s an opinion shared by Calgary mortgage broker Joe Jacobs.
“If it was going to a point where it’s going to be a full referendum, there’s a risk there’ll be a market that pauses for sure,” said Mr. Jacobs, referring to the second referendum that would have to take place for separation to move forward.
However, Rob Vanovermeire, broker and owner at Coldwell Banker Mountain Central in Edmonton and Calgary, said he believes that some of Alberta’s real estate slowdown can already be attributed to the separation movement.
“We’re working with some people right now who have decided to put their plans on hold until next year,” said Mr. Vanovermeire.
“People are sitting on their hands and saying, ‘Hey I think I’ll wait a little longer because want certainty.’”
However, Mr. Vanovermeire says he is optimistic that the market will turn around. Like many others in the province, he believes that Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is looking to get a better deal for the province, rather than actually separate.
He thinks the province will be in a better economic position after this movement, even if separation does take place, because of the oil and gas industry.
“Alberta has a strong economic engine, whether we’re part of Canada or not,” said Mr. Vanovermeire.
