Some economists and real estate agents have predicted that next year, the Canadian housing market could start feeling supply constraints.Darren Calabrese/The Canadian Press
In 2025, mortgage markets were rocked by inflation concerns, major shifts in trade policy and questions around how low and how fast the Bank of Canada would decrease rates.
If you ask experts about 2026, the coming year is expected to be much different. Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC, forecasts a quiet year of little change in rates.
“In all likelihood, the Bank of Canada will keep rates at the current level until 2027,” said Mr. Tal in an e-mail, adding that bond markets and fixed mortgage rates will likely also experience little change in the new year.
Mr. Tal said interest-rate policy is not expected to have any major impact on how Canadian real estate markets perform.
“Trade uncertainty and its impact on jobs will be the primary factor,” he said.
Unlike many real estate agents who expect this spring will be when sales finally pick up in Toronto and Vancouver, Mr. Tal says 2026 will likely be a transitional year, where low activity will slowly lead to a busier market in 2027.
Some economists and real estate agents have predicted that next year, the Canadian housing market could start feeling supply constraints as a result of lower housing starts in 2024 and 2025, when economic conditions made it difficult for builders to justify new projects.
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