A home for sale in southwest Calgary in January. Calgary saw the lowest home-price growth of any city in the Prairies.Amir Salehi/The Globe and Mail
The Canadian real estate market remained sluggish in September, but some communities across the country bucked the trends of national or even regional markets.
The growth of national real estate prices has been flat for months, according to data from Wahi, a digital real estate platform, and Real Property Solutions, a Canadian property valuation service provider.
Condos remain the largest factor in stagnant property prices, as their values dropped by 6 per cent nationally in September.
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The Globe and Mail spoke to realtors and Wahi economist Ryan McLaughlin about year-over-year real estate trends in St. Catharines, Calgary and Victoria – three cities that are outliers from static prices across the rest of the country.
Calgary: 3-per-cent increase
A 3-per-cent boost is modest for housing prices, but it also stands out as the lowest level of growth for any city in Canada’s booming Prairies region.
The increase comes after years of significant gains in house values in Calgary, which have left the average home value at roughly $800,000, Mr. McLaughlin said.
He compared that to average prices in the range of $400,000 to $500,000 in other Prairie cities.
Karen Fawcett, a Calgary realtor, said the period of growth from 2022 to 2025 was driven by the movement of roughly 160,000 people into Alberta during that time, from both other provinces and other countries.
She said that level of population growth has now slowed, which is one reason prices have started to level off.
Calgary’s condo market is also falling because of a massive increase in supply. Ms. Fawcett said the city is on track to have added 8,000 new units in 2025. That sector is bringing down the overall picture of price growth.
“This a market that has a lot fewer restrictions on it than Toronto, for example, so they tend to go through these construction boom-bust cycles,” said Mr. McLaughlin, who added that the recent glut in supply has dissolved the sense of urgency for buyers.
St. Catharines: 3-per-cent drop
St. Catharines was one of the worst performing real estate markets in Ontario in September. Only Toronto performed worse, with that city experiencing a 4-per-cent drop in prices.
One noticeable damper on the market, said St. Catharines realtor Karl Vanderkuip, is that remote workers who flocked to the city during the pandemic are no longer finding it feasible to live here, as employers increase expectations for time spent in the office.
“While I’m still seeing people coming here for retirement purposes, it’s been a while since I’ve seen younger families or young professionals moving who are looking at working remotely,” he said.
Mr. McLaughlin added that the city’s reputation as a manufacturing-based economy near the United States border is weighing heavy on prospective buyers because of the American government’s efforts to reshape global trade and shift more factory jobs to its own country.
Victoria: 4-per-cent increase
Victoria was the only major urban area in B.C. where prices grew in September; prices in Vancouver and Kelowna fell by 4 per cent and 3 per cent, respectively.
The B.C. capital has long benefited from demand from retirees across Canada, which realtor Dirk VanderWal said has helped the city remain more stable.
Victoria is also a small city surrounded by water on three sides, making it difficult to develop more housing, despite the demand.
Mr. VanderWal said the fact that Victoria is the province’s capital means there is stable employment from the government and various postsecondary institutions.
