Buried in a recent publication by Canada’s Federal Housing Advocate is one of the bleakest housing forecasts in recent memory: Many middle-income Canadians may have to wait until 2060 before adequate housing will be affordable for what they earn.
While I hope we can restore affordability somewhat faster, this honesty about what is realistically achievable is striking. Millennials, Gen Z and even many of today’s elementary school children are being told that Canada’s housing system will remain stacked against them for decades.
This contrasts sharply with slogans from politicians implying affordability could return in under a decade if governments simply built more homes, clamped down on speculation and slowed immigration.
Carolyn Whitzman’s report cuts through the political fantasy. Canada’s housing crisis is too structurally entrenched to disappear soon. After decades of policy decisions that protected rising home values while underbuilding non-profit housing, policy-makers must now acknowledge younger Canadians will absorb the consequences for much of their lives.
A report from Statistics Canada this month revealed that millennials aged 25 to 39 are now twice as likely to live with their parents as boomers were at the same age. Adults aged 25 to 34 were also the only age group with declining earnings in 2024.
By contrast, seniors’ incomes continued to rise through market gains and government supports, while rising home values over the last half century generated trillions in wealth captured largely by older Canadians, including me.
This is the defining intergenerational bargain in Canadian politics. Politicians fear the backlash that would follow any policy leading to a sharp drop in home values because many older owners now bank on those gains, and because a major housing correction would weaken economic growth.
Editorial: Home is where the heart (of happiness) is
So instead of risking that backlash, politicians expect younger Canadians to sacrifice.
They move farther from work or school.
They pay higher rents.
They take on larger mortgages.
They give up on home ownership.
They struggle to borrow to start businesses without home equity.
They delay coupling up.
They postpone having children.
This diminished financial security is the raw deal Canada’s political elite ask younger Canadians to accept in order to safeguard homeowners’ wealth. Understandably, it is making young people miserable.
A new study by Haifang Huang and John Helliwell finds levels of happiness reported by Canadians age 20 to 34 fell sharply over the last two decades while remaining stable for seniors. Among the factors they tested, housing mattered most: Unaffordability strongly predicts worsening well-being for young adults, but has little comparable effect on seniors.
Since younger Canadians have every reason to be angry, not just miserable, more of those benefitting from their sacrifice should be more committed to helping fix the mess they inherit.
Attention, tenants: Rent-control won’t always protect you from surprise increases
We compensate workers injured on the job because society should share burdens some incur for the sake of the wider economy. Millennials and Gen Z are similarly carrying the costs of a housing system designed to preserve wealth for those who entered the market earlier.
So the next National Housing Strategy must offer a serious plan to compensate them, which could take many forms: Thousands in rent support for millions of young people; major reductions in tuition and student debt; faster expansion of $10-a-day child care; eliminating poverty for families with children by strengthening the Canada Child Benefit; or tax relief targeted at younger workers.
The good news is that Canada can afford to do much of this without raising tax rates or deficits.
Ottawa is on track to spend more than $17-billion annually on Old Age Security subsidies for retired couples with six-figure incomes. Couples with incomes over $180,000 still receive nearly $18,000 in taxpayer-funded subsidies each year.
That cannot be defended during a cost-of-living crisis hitting younger Canadians hardest.
Targeting even half of those subsidies toward seniors who need them would both eliminate seniors’ poverty, and save billions annually – money that could help compensate younger Canadians for the housing burdens they are being asked to bear.
Older Canadians do not want their children and grandchildren trapped in permanent housing insecurity. Many do not want 30-year-olds living in childhood bedrooms because rent is unaffordable.
So it’s time for the Prime Minister and premiers to stop pretending affordable housing is just around the corner and confront the hard truth laid out in the Federal Housing Advocate’s report.
If affordability will not return for decades, younger Canadians deserve far more than slogans about building homes.
They deserve compensation now for the economic sacrifices they make to shield both the economy and older homeowners from the fallout that would follow if home values crashed.
Dr. Paul Kershaw is a policy professor at UBC and founder of Generation Squeeze, Canada’s leading voice for generational fairness. You can follow Gen Squeeze on X, Facebook, Bluesky, and Instagram, as well as subscribe to Paul’s Hard Truths podcast.
