What would it take to get you to remember to turn off the lights when you leave the room? To pause a moment and unplug the cellphone charger? To choose the more expensive "green" light bulb? BC Hydro has put the price of imprinting that message over the next three years at $418-million.
And so far, the Crown corporation's long-running Power Smart campaign hasn't moved the meter: Since 2003, the corporation has poured nearly half a billion into the program, and B.C. homes are burning up just as much power.
British Columbians like their green choices. They'll opt for the energy-efficient dishwasher, the compact florescent lamp and the LED Christmas lights. But they are also plugging in more gadgets: The Xbox and the iPad, the Blu-ray player (for the big-screen television).
"It's called the rebound effect," said Mark Jaccard, an environmental economist from Simon Fraser University. "We have more efficient devices, but we also have more devices."
This month, BC Hydro is running a major advertising campaign to shame consumers about wasting electricity. The corporation's Power Smart program also provides incentives to energy-saving customers and works the back rooms to persuade retailers to put more efficient products on their shelves.
Prof. Jaccard has just completed a joint academic review comparing conservation programs offered by North American utilities, and that yet-to-be-published study found BC Hydro is a leader in North America on this score.
But that is in a field of underachievers. His research concluded that major subsidy programs "are not nearly as effective as we thought they were." And that promised conservation targets rarely are met. Nagging consumers to be Power Smart just isn't enough: "I would be surprised if we are going to get good value from that amount of money," he said.
Lisa Coltart, BC Hydro's executive director of Power Smart, said the program is working because, without it, British Columbians would be using more energy. "We have succeeded by avoiding that increase," she said.
But that success looks more like a failure when measured against what needs to happen.
There is a widening chasm between the province's electricity supply and anticipated demand. Over the next 10 years, BC Hydro must bend down the consumption curve.
And what does the future hold? Population growth means more households plugging into the grid. And the province's climate-change goals mean increased demand for clean hydroelectric power as an alternative to fossil fuels.
Next year, the Nissan Leaf will premiere in Vancouver, one of the cities selected to test-pilot the new electric car. City planners are already calling for charging stations to keep those green vehicles moving.
By 2030, the Pembina Institute predicts there will be one million electric cars on the road in B.C.
"BC Hydro's plan doesn't do enough on conservation, and there is certainly no plan how the million electric cars will become a reality," said Matt Horne, Pembina's director for Energy Solutions in B.C.
"If you are going to crack the energy efficiency nut, there is no question you are going to have a full range of approaches," he said. He applauds BC Hydro's efforts, but notes they have already done the easy stuff - like incentives - and it is still not enough.
Ms. Coltart agrees the program needs to ramp up and diversify. The corporation is pushing for new building codes that shape more efficient communities, and standards that will deny manufacturers access to the B.C. market if their products are not energy-efficient.
"Our vision is to bend the curve down. A lot of it is reaching the hearts of the consumers of B.C. - and making sure the energy-efficient products are available for them to purchase."
Seven years ago, BC Hydro played the role of trendsetter with the introduction of distinctive light blue LED Christmas lights. The LED lights, which are 95 per cent more efficient than the old-style Christmas lights, were unknown to consumers.
"We were the first utility in Canada to bring them in," she noted. The campaign was a hit, and this year LED Christmas lights will dominate retail shelf space.
Incentives and green choices are easy enough to market, but there is a third component that can drive conservation: the price of electricity.
"You need electricity prices to go up," said Prof. Jaccard, who was a key adviser to the B.C. government on the creation of the carbon tax on fossil fuels. Similarly, he said, BC Hydro's rates can be a powerful tool to get consumers to conserve electricity.
As it happens, BC Hydro's electricity rates are set to climb dramatically in the next few years. The corporation has asked its regulator to approve a rate increase of about 9 per cent for the current fiscal year. Over four years, rates are forecast to increase by nearly 40 per cent.
It is part of the overall Power Smart strategy - but it hasn't been fused with the public campaign. "They haven't been out there, making that connection in a forthright manner," observed Mr. Horne.
Through his role at the Pembina Institute, he has been asked to sit as an adviser on the Power Smart plan. He says there is no political appetite to launch another carbon tax-type debate. Without it, however, he can't see how the province will close the electricity gap.
"We can put tonnes of incentives in place and it won't raise an eyebrow," he said, "but we are not going to get electricity consumption to decline."