The commentariat in British Columbia has been telling Premier Gordon Campbell how unpopular he is for years now. The Premier has generally regarded the observations of the chattering classes the way an elephant does a mosquito.
The fact is, while polls, year after year, have shown how unloved the Premier is by a majority of B.C. citizens, it never seems to matter come election time. In three trips to the polls since 2001, a majority of British Columbians have voted in the Liberals and their leader, with all his attendant flaws and seeming inability to convey the slightest bit of genuine warmth or empathy.
It should be no surprise, then, that Mr. Campbell is nonplussed by recent speculation and backroom gossip-mongering about his leadership, fuelled by polls that show the Premier and his party 18 points back of the NDP.
Most of the voter angst appears to stem from the much-disliked harmonized sales tax scheduled to be brought in July 1. Other aspects of the most recent Angus Reid poll seemed like the same old stuff: 72 per cent of respondents considered the Premier "arrogant;" 55 per cent "dishonest;" 51 per cent "uncaring."
But as I say, people in B.C. have been saying this about Gordon Campbell for years. Why would he be any more concerned about it now than he might have been five years ago?
Many in the Liberal Party had been assuming that Mr. Campbell wanted to be host of the 2010 Olympics, and once that was off his to-do list, he could happily announce his retirement later in the year having served in office for nearly a decade and achieved much. That is not what many in the party think now.
He appears to be settling in to fight another day.
If there is a word that best describes what fuels Mr. Campbell's ambition it would be hubris. He doesn't think anyone could do the job better. He certainly doesn't see any potential challengers around his cabinet table the way, say, Jean Chrétien did with Paul Martin or Tony Blair did with Gordon Brown. Besides, they're all too frightened of him, a wispy brigade of pussycats.
The same can be said of those running the provincial Liberal Party. Most wouldn't say boo if the Premier was standing on their toes.
So he's not worried about a palace coup.
Mr. Campbell has been a politician long enough to know that being 18 points behind isn't the end of the road when you don't have to face the voters for three more years. He is doubtlessly confident the gap would shrink if voters really considered an NDP alternative. Mr. Campbell is likely also thinking that as long as Carole James is leading the New Democrats, he has a chance.
Mr. Campbell is only 62, by all appearances in excellent health, and seems to have boundless energy. I'm sure he has looked around and thought: what else could I do that would be this much fun? I get to run my own province. Why should I retire?
To some extent he is right. But if he stopped to think about the matter more objectively, he might realize that change at the top of any organization, whether it's the person running a town of 500 or a multinational car company, is almost always a good thing if the leader has been in the position for a long time.
Those who have been in charge for years often become rigid in their thinking. New problems look and sound like problems they faced before. Too often, a long-time leader points out why certain initiatives can't work as opposed to why they could. They have also established firm opinions on issues. On members of their leadership team as well. They do not bring fresh thinking to the office each day.
Leadership experts will tell you that none of this is ever good.
The history books are littered with politicians who hung on too long. Richard Hatfield, former premier of New Brunswick, comes to mind. And so does Ralph Klein in Alberta. He was dumped by his own party - and he had never lost an election.
If Mr. Campbell stays, he has other problems too. The Liberal Party is $5-million or $7-million in debt, depending on whom you talk to. That will take some major fundraising to erase. And right now, there aren't a lot of people willing to throw the money into the Liberal kitty as long as Mr. Campbell is in charge.
There will be lots more drama surrounding this story in the months ahead.