David Parkins/ The Globe and Mail
B.C. premiers don't tend to get do-overs when it comes to TV addresses. The record suggests the measure is an emergency option for leaders in trouble.
That makes Gordon Campbell's televised speech on Oct. 27 - his third-ever TV address as Premier to B.C. residents - possibly the most important in his 16-year career in provincial politics. The reason is simple: Mr. Campbell has yet to face a crisis like the controversy around the harmonized sales tax.
Live audiences may be small, but the media will help amplify anything of merit. "It's the 30-second clip and subsequent newscast and headlines the next day - that's what people take their cues from," political scientist Norman Ruff said.
While a major speech in the past would come and go, it will now be accessible with a few keystrokes on YouTube, and on government and media websites. The big question is whether it will fade into the anonymity of government statements, or whether the Premier will say something that resonates to his benefit.
Mr. Campbell is slotted for 7 p.m. The Premier's office has booked 30 minutes on Global BC, but may not take all that time and is talking to the broadcaster about options for the remainder. Costs for the slot are being covered from the government's advertising budget, the Premier's office says.
This isn't the first time Mr. Campbell has talked about the HST. A hinted-at summer tour to tout the tax failed to materialize, but the Premier has been advancing his spin in scrums with reporters, interviews and speeches to such forums as the annual meeting of the Union of B.C. Municipalities this month. In a nutshell, he has said the government had to rush into merging the federal and provincial sales taxes, that it should have done a better job selling the HST, but that, overall, the tax is in the province's best interests.
None of that appears to have done anything to blunt the HST crisis. Devastating public-opinion ratings for the Liberal Party, next year's referendum on the tax, the resignation of energy minister Blair Lekstrom over the government's handling of the file, and the possible recall of Liberal members of the Legislature all suggest the veteran Premier has failed to gain political traction on the file.
Now, he will be trying to make a case with British Columbians, many of whom may have missed Mr. Campbell's previous communication efforts.
"Using a televised address in a clutch situation, a highly dramatic situation, makes sense. It will compel public attention," said veteran political observer John Duffy, founder of Toronto-based StrategyCorp, and a former adviser to both ex-prime minister Paul Martin and the Ontario Liberals.
But the flip-side danger of the tactic, Mr. Duffy says, is a politician who really has nothing new to say beyond the same old talking points. "What would be jarring is if all this trouble is gone to and all this fuss is made - 'Oh, live television address, big thing' - and there's no big thing there."
Fred Cutler of the University of British Columbia agrees. "He can't do anything to improve his position if he says nothing new. He will only hear that he's wasting people's time," the political scientist said. Prof. Cutler says such a misstep might even hasten calls for the Premier's resignation.
The omens may not be promising: In public comments, Mr. Campbell does not seem seized with urgency to do battle on the HST front. Earlier this month, in an interview with The Globe and Mail about the speech, Mr. Campbell said little about the HST issue that dominates B.C. politics, instead blandly declaring he wanted to talk about the economy, education and province's future because "it's time for us to embrace the opportunities of the 21st century."
But the Premier's office is more blunt, indicating this is an HST address aimed at responding to concerns from the public that the embattled government has not done a good enough job of communicating the merits of the tax.
Rick Jeffery, president and chief executive officer of the Coast Forest Products Association, is supportive of the HST, but suggests the pressure is on Mr. Campbell.
"Any time any leader anywhere takes half an hour of prime-time television to talk to the people, he better be on," Mr. Jeffery said in an interview. "It doesn't matter whether he's talking about HST or Afghanistan, you better be on."
Mr. Jeffery fears a "fair" taxation policy being overturned in next year's referendum by voters who may have cast ballots not entirely understanding the tax, and suggests that may not reflect well on the province. "That would be very much a black eye for British Columbia," he said.
The speech won't be Mr. Campbell's last shot at making a case on the HST, but rather the launch of a dialogue before next fall's referendum, he says. Still, Mr. Campbell is going to have to make it real for people who may not be policy wonks.