David Parkins for The Globe and MailDavid Parkins for The Globe and Mail/The Globe and Mail
There is no more reliable method to get politicians to dance, it seems, than to ask "what if" questions. "Hypothetical," they huff as they execute a fast sidestep. For months, the B.C. Liberals have used this move to avoid the question, what if the anti-HST petition is successful?
Now that the petition seems likely to pass, the what-if game has advanced another level.
Let's start with, what if the B.C. Liberal government had taken the threat of a petition seriously from the start?
Friday is Harry Neufeld's last day in his term as the province's Chief Electoral Officer. His most recent task has been to oversee the launch of a petition against the HST under a citizen-driven initiative process proposed by Bill Vander Zalm. When Elections BC rejected the provincial government's proposed ad campaign in April under the initiative law, Finance Minister Colin Hansen stopped just short of calling Mr. Neufeld's neutrality into question.
"If they had to do it over again, they'd probably register against the proponent and have the ability to spend as much as Mr. Vander Zalm," Mr. Neufeld observed in an interview this week. He waved off the minister's attacks on the scrupulously non-partisan office: "This is a man who is clearly frustrated with where the law is putting him."
Had the government taken Mr. Vander Zalm's campaign seriously and registered as an official opponent, it would have been allowed to send out the household mailer on the HST before the petition period ends, countering what it insists is misleading information about the tax. As an opponent, it would have been entitled to spend the same as the proponent - $921,448.30.
What if the petition passes and the B.C. Liberal government decides to opt out of the HST, as the petition directs?
Premier Gordon Campbell laughed out loud this week when asked why he doesn't think that is a good idea.
"The downside would be it would create a $1.6-billion hole over the next three years," he said. "You lose the opportunity to create thousands and thousands of jobs in British Columbia, billions of dollars of economic development." Ottawa's agreement to give that amount of money to B.C. was the key to overcoming Mr. Campbell's opposition to the HST, because it helped reduce a massive post-election deficit.
The New Democratic Party opposition, which has actively supported the petition, has said it would, if in government, seek to disengage from the tax at the first opportunity - in 2015. But finance critic Bruce Ralston said Mr. Campbell could act more swiftly than that, as a signatory to the deal with Ottawa. "If both sides were willing, there could be a negotiation to get rid of the HST," he said.
Jock Finlayson, vice-president of the Business Council of B.C., warns the price tag would be much higher than the loss of the transfer money. "If the province was to change course now, it would send a very negative signal about policy instability to investors," he said. "It would be destabilizing in the marketplace."
What if the government stands firm?
If the petition passes (the count is set for August), the matter will be sent to an all-party committee of the legislature within a month, and it has another three months to consider the matter. The Liberal-dominated committee can recommend that the proposed legislation to repeal the HST be put before the legislature, likely early next year. Or the committee sends it to a provincewide referendum in the fall of 2011.
"The only reason for going forward with a referendum in 2011 would be to try to scuttle it and keep the HST. So if that is their decision, we are going to go right into recall in November," said Chris Delaney, the chief petition organizer. He wants to target Mr. Campbell, but that is no easy task. There have been 20 attempts to use recall in B.C. and none have succeeded, although one politician quit rather than face a formal count. To force a by-election, a recall petition must be signed by more than 40 per cent of the people who were, on the date of the last election, registered voters for that MLA's electoral district. The NDP could help, but if it is seen as a partisan effort, it is likely to backfire.
Here's what the Liberals are banking on: An economic recovery will pacify angry voters. "I'm not under any expectation that the HST is suddenly going to win a popularity contest," the Finance Minister said this week. "But what will begin to overshadow some of the anger out there right now is the fact that British Columbia will do better than just about any other jurisdiction in North America when it comes to … economic stability."
What if Mr. Campbell quits, or is recalled?
The Premier said it himself last week - the only thing more unpopular than the HST itself is Gordon Campbell.
He also acknowledged this week that the public anger is more about the way the HST was introduced than the tax itself. So voters may accepted the HST, come the 2013 election. But the B.C. Liberal brand, right now, is stained - the belief that the party won the 2009 election based on deceit has more potential staying power.
In 1986, the Social Credit party hung on to power by anointing a fresh face (Mr. Vander Zalm, as it happens). In 1996, the NDP did the same, letting Mike Harcourt pack up and take the party's baggage away. It doesn't always work and there's a hitch: Virtually every member of the present government has defended the Liberal's HST flip-flop. But Mr. Campbell might choose to stay long enough to see the HST through, then take the voters' heat with him as he heads out the door.
A change at the helm could be the Liberals' best revenge on Mr. Vander Zalm, who has long sought to build a third-party alternative. Mr. Vander Zalm has proven effective at stirring up the populist anger over the HST, but remove the sting and those third party prospects dim.