Hamilton's mayoral race has all the makings of a classic.
Three evenly matched contenders are going head-to-head. Two of them have faced off before, in an election decided by less than a percentage point.
Whoever wins will steer the city as it prepares for the Pan Am Games and builds a stadium set to become a local landmark.
And in a city that has a recent history of unpredictable elections, observers say the neck-and-neck-and-neck race is too close to call, confirmed by a weekend Nanos poll that showed the trio in a statistical tie.
In one corner is incumbent Fred Eisenberger. Although he has run federally for the Tories, his messaging has a progressive bent: He promises improved transit, new jobs and free local food in schools across the city.
Taking him on is former mayor Larry Di Ianni, whom Mr. Eisenberger unseated in 2006 by just 452 votes. The ex-teacher and onetime Liberal Party candidate has run a slick campaign, complete with feel-good TV ads that depict him playing with his grandchildren.
Hoping to beat them both is Bob Bratina, a former radio morning show host and current downtown councillor. He has staked out a left-leaning position, with promises of improved health care in needy neighbourhoods, new industrial development in the waterfront factory belt and bringing more people to the working-class city's slowly revitalizing downtown.
"Any of those three could do the mayor's job," said Henry Jacek, a political scientist at McMaster University and a veteran observer of local politics. "In 40 years, this is the first time that we've had three [serious candidates]running for the office of mayor."
At the centre of local politics is a debate over where to put a new stadium, expected to host soccer events during the 2015 Pan Am Games and become the new home for the CFL's Tiger-Cats. Mr. Eisenberger wanted the venue built on the waterfront to spark city-centre revitalization, while Ti-Cats owner Bob Young favoured a site in the city's southeastern suburbs closer to highways. The standoff was so heated, Mr. Young suggested over the summer he would move the team.
The two sides eventually compromised on a site: a CP rail yard southwest of downtown but close to a highway. But the deal is by no means done, as the city and the team combined don't have enough money to build it.
Mr. Eisenberger has campaigned on the premise that he advocated for a site that was best for the city.
"[The stadium]had to have benefit for downtown, it had to be connected to public transportation," he said during a stop at a fall fair in the Hamilton-area village of Rockton on one of the last weekends of campaigning. "I was making sure the city's interests were paramount."
A five-minute walk away, Mr. Di Ianni pounced on the issue, saying the city should have consulted more with the Ti-Cats before picking a site, and shouldn't have categorically ruled out the suburbs.
"I'm promising voters strong, resolute leadership, rather than a debate that lasts two and a half years deciding where to put a stadium," he said.
His rhetoric touches on another issue on which observers expect the election to turn: leadership style.
While the smooth-talking Mr. Di Ianni and the tough-talking Mr. Bratina are seen as pushing hard for what they want (Mr. Di Ianni, for example, played a major role in backing the Red Hill Valley Parkway as mayor), Mr. Eisenberger comes off as a patient consensus-builder.
It's a difference Mr. Bratina is eager to highlight, as he discusses all the downtown buildings he has helped fix up during his time on council and effortlessly tosses off punchy sound bites.
"It was after a trip to Germany, where I had seen many of these cities that were levelled in the Second World War rebuilt as vibrant, healthy cities," he says in discussing the reasons he became a politician. "I get back to Hamilton, and the SWAT team's got yellow tape around one of the main intersections, where they're taking down a drug dealer. I thought to myself, 'What is going on?' "
Nonetheless, those acquainted with city hall say the dour, soft-spoken Mr. Eisenberger's style is still effective.
"He's not particularly charismatic, but he's done a good job of laying the groundwork and working with staff behind the scenes," said Ryan McGreal, who volunteers with a group that advocated bringing an LRT to Hamilton, crediting the mayor with helping to sell city staff on the idea.
And despite his relatively low-key campaign last time around, Mr. Eisenberger was still able to pull off a squeaker of an upset.
It wasn't the only tough recent contest in the city: In 2000, polls predicted veteran mayor Bob Morrow would win; but on election day, he was defeated by a healthy margin. The 2003 vote, meanwhile, saw a race between Mr. Di Ianni and former provincial cabinet minister David Christopherson.
In discussing the current campaign, Mr. McGreal uses the adage "the only poll that matters in on election day."
In some cities, that may sound cliché; in Hamilton, it's certainly true.