Few have a more acute sense of a leader's weaknesses and vulnerabilities than the people closest to him. For Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach, many of those whom he faced in caucus and around the cabinet table each day felt his leadership had become a major liability.
Without a new leader, it seemed, the upstart, right-wing Wildrose Alliance Party, under the charismatic direction of Danielle Smith, would replace the Conservatives in government come the next election. When Mr. Stelmach recently told caucus members he was prepared to continue running deficits, several worried Conservative MLAs felt it would only help cede more political turf to Wildrose.
As it turned out, it was just the ammunition Mr. Stelmach's critics inside caucus needed to force his resignation, which the Alberta Premier made official on Tuesday.
The announcement drew immediate comparisons to the recent rebellion-led departures of B.C. Premier Gordon Campbell and B.C. NDP Leader Carole James. Perhaps more broadly, however, the latest resignation-by-coup raises the question: Are caucuses getting increasingly itchy trigger fingers in Canada?
Mr. Stelmach had only been elected leader of the Alberta Conservatives in 2006. While admittedly a compromise candidate who had little dynamism, he still managed to lead his party to a massive majority in 2008. Think about that: The man forced out by a nascent caucus mutiny on Tuesday led his party to a sweeping majority only two years earlier.
Loyalty ain't what it used to be, I guess.
Mr. Stelmach decided to drive a fairly moderate, centre-right agenda. He wasn't afraid to run a deficit, once viewed as sacrilegious in Alberta. He faced severe and justified criticism over the way health care in the province was managed, among other problem areas. His centrist policy direction allowed the upstart Wildrose Alliance Party to firmly take root.
The charisma of the young party's leader, Ms. Smith, only served to highlight the Alberta Premier's own personality deficiencies that at one time didn't seem to matter. Eventually the polls began shifting and the latest ones indicated that the Conservatives would finish behind Wildrose if an election were held now.
That was enough to spook people inside the party, who felt their only hope for victory against Ms. Smith's forces was a new leader. So they forced Mr. Stelmach out.
There are certainly similarities between the putsch that ended the Alberta Premier's reign and that of Mr. Campbell's last November.
Neither was particularly well loved by the public but had been viewed as able provincial administrators. Mr. Campbell became inextricably linked to some of the government's most hated decisions, most notably the HST. The leader's singular unpopularity was driving his party's chances into the ground. As was the case in Alberta, there were widespread rumblings of a caucus mutiny in the Liberal government before the resignation was made official.
Perhaps the more apt comparison to Mr. Stelmach is NDP Leader Carole James, who, like the Alberta Premier, was labelled bland, uninspiring and likely to be no match for whoever it was who replaced Gordon Campbell as premier. Like Mr. Stelmach, she had been elected party leader as a compromise choice and never managed to enthrall or convince anyone that she was the ideal person to be heading the party. There was always a faction within the NDP unconvinced of her leadership, which was exactly the case with Mr. Stelmach.
A caucus coup ended Ms. James's reign in December.
So, is this a new trend we are witnessing? Are politicians being put on a shorter leash by those in their caucus? Mr. Campbell had been in power for nine-plus years. So no short leash. But his grip on the party was always seen as iron-tight. No one ever imagined him being forced out as premier unless it was amid some scandal.
Carole James had been leader for seven years. But she had lost two elections and her detractors felt she was heading for three, even though polls showed the NDP leading the Liberals with her at the helm. (Although she always trailed her party in personal popularity, not uncommon among opposition leaders.)
Mr. Stelmach is different. He had not been in power that long and was only two years removed from winning a majority. That does seem unusual and fairly, shall we say, mercenary on the part of those MLAs who forced him out.
Whether these acts of political sedition embolden others across the country to do the same we'll have to see. But if I were an unpopular premier I wouldn't be sleeping easy these days.