Incoming Chinese ambassador Luo ZhaohuiChen Jingchao
At his farewell party last week, outgoing Chinese ambassador Zhang Junsai looked out at the assembled Ottawa dignitaries and declared "I have fulfilled my mission." He knew it wasn't completely true.
He had come from Australia three and a half years ago saying he'd just seen a dramatic expansion there in trade and ties with his country, and wanted to repeat it in Canada. In his first few years in Canada, it all seemed to be going gangbusters. Now, relations are drifting.
There's a new Chinese ambassador headed to Canada this week, Luo Zhaohui, dangling some trade goodies, and seeking a reset in relations. In an interview with The Globe and Mail's's Beijing correspondent, Nathan VanderKilppe, he signalled China wants to get business moving – but suggested Beijing isn't sure Ottawa shares that enthusiasm. And there has been a pullback: the Harper government expressed zeal, but now suffers from political nerves in dealing with China.
But Mr. Luo is now the second Chinese ambassador in a row who has come into office talking about getting a new era of trade going. Mr. Harper used to talk about those things with the zeal of the converted, but no so much anymore.
It's not that there has been no progress. In fact, departing Ambassador Zhang cited a number of statistics to show how far things have come: An almost 50 per cent increase in trade in three years, 20 per cent annual growth in the number of Chinese tourists coming to Canada, and $40-billion in Chinese investment in Canada.
Indeed, Mr, Zhang did see some heady times in Canada-China relations before he headed home to retire. After a chill during Mr. Harper's early years in power, there was a substantial warming between 2009 and 2012. Chinese state firms started investing in Canada, but usually in smallish deals of $1-billion or so. On Mr. Harper's second visit to China, in early 2012, he unambiguously declared Canada would welcome Chinese investment.
In those days of recession and anxious recovery, Mr. Harper was sending signals of diversifying trade. Delays to the Keystone XL pipeline led Mr. Harper to play up efforts to sell energy to Asia.
But as the recession waned, the rhetoric passed, and "the follow-up was lacking," said Yuen Pau Woo, President of the Asia-Pacific Foundation. For Mr. Harper, the domestic politics of dealing with China soured.
When China's CNOOC Ltd. made a $15.1-billion for Alberta's Nexen, it stirred up China angst among Canadians. It was unpopular to sell resources to foreigners, especially state Chinese firms. Mr. Harper's government approved the takeover, but essentially set a barrier to future big resource takeovers. Chinese investment has dried up since.
There were other things. The foreign investment protection agreement Canada had sought from China for years was signed in 2012. But it brought a backlash at home, among Conservatives, too, so Mr. Harper's government still hasn't ratified it. It's just hard to sell politically.
Mr. Woo noted that China engaged in a "complementarity" study that's usually a first step toward some type of trade agreement, but Ottawa essentially greeted it with silence. There are still ministers' visits and bilateral work, but less drive.
China's leadership understands some of the politics, he said, but if Canada isn't doing much to spark ties, Beijing won't do much either.
With politics at home making Mr. Harper wary of embracing China too much in public, it's hard to imagine things will change much before next year's federal election. At the very least, Mr. Harper's Conservatives seem inclined to let time pass after the Nexen deal before they make China relations high-profile again.
It has some warning of lost opportunity. Goldy Hyder, president of Hill and Knowlton Canada, a consultant on Chinese and other resource deals, said the restrictions announced at the time of the Nexen deal have scared away Chinese investment and potential oil-patch investments state-owned nterprises of other nations. If the government has security or strategic reasons, that's one thing, he said, but if it's xenophobia, Canada can't afford it.
"If we fall prey to that disease in a global economy, we risk getting very sick," he said.
Mr. Woo said polls show Canadians are wary of Asian economic influence, especially China's. But he argued that what's really lacking in Canada is "political leadership" that would change that. In Australia, political leaders have for decades recognize the economic importance of China, so they had a consensus to encourage ties, rather than using them as a political football. In Canada, in the government and opposition, that's missing, he said.
Perhaps that's why Ambassador Zhang didn't quite get to accomplish the mission of repeating China's Australian experience in Canada. And his successor, tasked with resetting relations, might have to wait for the politics of China ties to change in Canada before he can count his job done.