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The tragedies of Canadian military personnel returning from the Afghanistan mission, only to wrestle with their experience and, in too many cases, die by suicide, raises the question: Did they fight there in vain?
The question is an immensely painful one to ask, and more painful still to answer. We do know that Afghanistan today remains a deeply troubled country, with an uncertain future and thousands of people leaving, heading to Europe and, in some cases, to Canada.
Would matters have been worse if North Atlantic Treaty Organization forces, including Canada's, had not gone there? What good, in the long light of history, did they do? Were the sacrifices of the dead and wounded, and those who took their own lives as chronicled in this week's Globe and Mail series, worth it? By what measure can "worth" be determined?
It is proper to ask whether the former soldiers were given the help they required to deal with their traumas. Clearly, as the Globe series showed, some were not, but the series deals by design with the post-combat impact on individuals. It does not ask whether these individuals embarked on a mission with a clear definition against which to measure sacrifice and success.
We can say that when Canadians went to Afghanistan, the clear hope was that by now the country's security situation would be stabilized and that social and economic advances would be recorded.
Alas, the security situation in parts of Afghanistan remains precarious. The Taliban are too weak to take over and control large swaths of territory; the Afghan government is too weak to eliminate them. In 27 of the country's 34 provinces, the United Nations reports some districts with high or extreme threat levels. Civilian deaths from combat operations were higher in 2014 than in 2009 in every region of the country.
The U.S. administration had promised that all American troops would be withdrawn from the country by now, but the uncertain security situation caused it to decide recently to keep some there. Kunduz, an important provincial capital in the north, fell to the Taliban before being recaptured. At the time of the fall and recapture of that city, the Afghan government said fighting was occurring in 13 provinces.
Corruption, as defined by Western standards, remains endemic, with half the population telling United Nations experts that they must pay a bribe when dealing with government and legal officials – and with teachers. Transparency International ranked Afghanistan 172nd of 175 countries rated for corruption in 2014, a ranking that has not budged for years.
The government budget is driven by foreign aid, military spending and narcotics. Only 10 per cent of Afghanistan's budget is self-funded. For every dollar the Afghan government raises from its economy, the U.S. provides almost six dollars. The International Monetary Fund estimates that Afghanistan will need massive amounts of foreign assistance at least until 2028, which leads to the obvious question: When will donor fatigue set in, with so many other countries needing help?
Opium production remains by far the largest earner of cash in the country. The UN estimates that the total area under opium poppy cultivation rose by 7 per cent in 2014 over 2013, and had risen by 36 per cent from 2013 over 2012.
The World Bank reports that poverty remains endemic and has not decreased in the past five years. Nearly half a million young people enter the labour market each year. Most of them cannot find permanent jobs. Some turn to political radicalism, others join the out-migration east toward Europe and to North America.
Those who depart leave behind a country that ranked 169th of 187 countries on the 2014 UN Human Development Index. It is true that more children are in school than a decade ago, especially girls – the education of whom is rejected by the Taliban and other militant Islamic groups.
Efforts to negotiate with the Taliban have failed. The insurgency's leaders can still find a haven in Pakistan, despite U.S. drone strikes against some of them. The counter-insurgency they lead is fuelled financially by the narcotics trade; the border they cross between Afghanistan and Pakistan is porous.
All the country's fundamental and entrenched challenges, from uncertain security to a feeble economy to endemic corruption, remain and the footprints of the foreigners, as often in the past, might well be washed away with the passing of time.