Globe and Mail columnist Jeffrey Simpson.The Globe and Mail
Nothing is inevitable in life, so just say it was overwhelmingly likely that throughout Europe, and even in Germany where the red carpet was rolled out, a political backlash would develop against the flood of migrants from the arc of instability stretching from Pakistan to North Africa.
The backlash was quickly evident in the Balkans and Eastern Europe where fences were erected and borders closed. Britain and Denmark drew up the drawbridges. Even in Sweden, which had taken more Iraqis per capita than anywhere outside the Middle East before the recent refugee flood, the government essentially had to close the border.
And now the backlash comes to Germany, which opened its arms in an unprecedented welcome for about one million migrants last year. At the time, most Germans felt wonderful about their country's generosity, especially given its history. This was, to coin a phrase, Germany's finest hour. Or so it seemed. Until the scope of the challenge of integration became evident, as did the unwillingness of other European countries to accept a "fair share" of migrants.
Put what Germany did into context. It took in roughly one million migrants, in a country with a population of about 80 million. That would be like Canada, population 35 million, taking 440,000 migrants (instead of the 25,000 Syrian refugees so far accepted).
Those who have arrived in Germany, unlike those accepted in Canada, are mostly migrants. Fewer than half are refugees from Syria. The rest come from a range of unstable countries, including Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq and various war-torn or dysfunctional African countries; they are people in search of better economic opportunities. Once Germany opened its doors, word got out that a promised land existed not just for refugees from Syria, but for anyone.
Last weekend, the anticipated political backlash crystallized in three German state elections. A new, anti-immigrant party – Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) – got 24.4 per cent, 15 per cent and 12 per cent of the vote in the three states, well above the 5-per-cent minimum required for seats in the regional parliaments. AfD was born three years ago in protest against the euro. After a brief flicker of attention, it seemed headed toward extinction – until the refugee flood, which the party denounced, arguing that Germany should close its borders, or at least limit the migrants.
By contrast, the prosperous state of Baden-Wuerttemberg, the Green premier (an economic conservative) was re-elected. He had campaigned strongly in favour of the welcoming of migrants, and heaped praise on German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Opinion polls show that about 60 per cent of Germans still favour what Ms. Merkel did last year. But many more doubts are being expressed as the cost and difficulties become apparent of absorbing so many refugees so quickly. When hundreds of women were reported to have been assaulted in Cologne on New Year's Eve by men of African and Arabic background, public opinion was shocked, and shifted.
Germans are also acutely aware that with other European countries hostile or lukewarm toward migrants, their country remains the principal target of arrivals. They also know that the arc of instability in Africa and the Middle East will continue to send thousands and thousands of migrants and refugees streaming toward Europe, year after year.
The drama of 2015, therefore, could be seen as the opening act of a long play. Already thousands of migrants have crossed this winter to Greece, a country that with all of its other economic problems cannot cope. These migrants/refugees are the vanguard, with many waiting to follow.
Quite understandably, Germans are saying that what they did once cannot be repeated, especially not after the AfD's electoral performance. Some additional refugees, yes, but not a repeat of last year's flood. Not when an open border attracts not only refugees but people from many countries, often without qualifications, seeking to enter Germany.
The strains on Europe from the migrants/refugees are already calling into question free movement of people within the European Union. The possibility of Britain's departure further threatens the integrity of the union.
So does the unwillingness of EU members to share, or even participate, in spreading the migrants/refugees. Greece, reeling from the latest migration, has no chance to pay off its debts and will again have to be bailed out. And Russia, playing a mischievous game, is using propaganda and money to assist right-wing, nationalist parties such as AfD.
Germany coped as best it could with the flood from last year. Neither it nor Europe can cope when the flood resumes.