The Liberal Party might not win the election, but to this point it has won the campaign.
It has won the campaign in the sense that Liberals have accomplished more of their objectives thus far than the other major parties.
The Liberals' television advertising, generally speaking, has been more effective. Its strategic policy shift of promising to run deficits through investment in infrastructure has pried away some swing voters from the NDP. With that same group, and others, it has better articulated the need for change felt widely in swaths of the electorate. And, critically, impressions of leader Justin Trudeau have improved.
Winning the campaign and winning the election are two different things. Liberal prospects outside Atlantic Canada are scattered, not concentrated as are Conservative votes in more than 100 ridings.
In Vancouver, where Mr. Trudeau campaigned Wednesday, the Liberals might win five or six ridings if everything breaks right for them. But the Conservatives and New Democratic Party have more safe bastions in the Lower Mainland, and certainly in the rest of the province where the Liberals are a distant third.
Before the election, it was widely assumed that this being his first national election as leader, Mr. Trudeau would commit some gaffe. It was just a matter of time, since he had spread some maladroit comments across the landscape of politics during his first years as leader.
He hasn't thus far made any serious gaffe, and seems to have benefited from a politician's best friend: being underestimated. He held his own in the first leaders' debate, and according to post-debate polling he came out best in the second, and in the opinion of many did likewise in this week's debate on foreign policy.
According to data collected by Innovative Research Group, about 40 per cent of respondents said Mr. Trudeau surpassed expectations in the first two debates compared with 20 per cent who thought he did less well than anticipated.
Greg Lyle, IRG's managing director, told a Vancouver group this week that his polling found that leadership impressions of Mr. Trudeau have improved by 11 points since July and unfavourable ones have fallen by seven points – all this while the Conservatives were blanketing the airwaves with advertisements about the Liberal Leader being "not ready."
Of some consequence, too, the Conservatives were seen as better equipped to deal with recession in August, but the Liberals had overtaken them in September. Asked whether the government should intervene to help the economy (the Liberal and NDP position) or lower taxes, balance the budget and stay out of the way (the Conservative approach), respondents favoured the former by a margin of 5 to 3.
The Liberals seem to have pried away NDP voters on the economy. IRG's polling shows that whereas what Mr. Lyle calls "core left" voters favoured the NDP over the Liberals in July by 59 per cent to 28 per cent, that lead had dropped in September, when the NDP led 41 per cent to 35 per cent. Among what he calls "left Liberal voters," the NDP led in July by 38 per cent to 29 per cent; in September, the Liberals led 40 per cent to 27 per cent.
Asked which party would be best to deal with the economy, protecting the middle class and creating jobs, the Liberals scored higher than the NDP. The Liberals also lead the NDP on which party represents "positive change." Before the campaign, the NDP were ahead of the Liberals. Now they trail, which suggests the campaign has thus far mattered.
Two trends among many are showing themselves. In the 2011 election, the Liberals produced their worst result ever. Now, a lot of traditional Liberals who abandoned their party are coming home.
Conversely, the NDP showing last time was its best ever, as the party pulled Liberal, Green and Bloc Québécois voters into a new coalition. That coalition seems to be fraying. This explains why the NDP is starting to run attack ads on the radio against Mr. Trudeau.
There are danger signs for the Liberals, signs that the Conservatives and New Democrats will try to exploit. Mr. Trudeau, despite improved impressions, still lags well behind Stephen Harper and Thomas Mulcair on perceptions of competence and being a strong leader. One Trudeau gaffe would rekindle the doubts about him, including within the world of Liberal voters.
Make bet that the Conservatives will assault him and the Liberals with everything they have as "tax-and-spenders," and will use Mr. Trudeau's position favouring legalizing marijuana against him in targeted communities. And remember that the Liberal vote is more scattered, so the Liberal share of the popular vote could rise without cashing in on a commensurate number of seats.