Linda McQuaig, who won the NDP nomination in the by-election for Toronto Centre MP, speaks after winning in Toronto on Sunday, September 15, 2013.Michelle Siu/The Globe and Mail
Chrystia Freeland ran away with the race for the Toronto Centre riding. The next time may not be so easy.
The Liberal MP's wide margin of victory in last month's by-election is substantially narrower in the neighbourhoods that will make up the riding two years from now.
Ms. Freeland was elected in a Nov. 25 by-election in the heart of Canada's largest city, taking 49.4 per cent of the vote, with New Democrat Linda McQuaig coming in second with 36.3 per cent.
However, Canada is getting a new electoral map for 2015, and the Toronto boundaries are being heavily redrawn as new seats are added to growing urban areas across the country.
Poll-by-poll by-election results from Nov. 25 show that, in the neighbourhoods that will make up the new version of Toronto Centre, Ms. Freeland still held 49.7 per cent of the vote, but Ms. McQuaig won 43.3 per cent, cutting the Liberal lead in half.
The results also show the Conservative vote dropping, further signalling that the battle for heavily urban seats in Canada is often a race between the NDP and the Liberals. Many of the Conservative seats in the Greater Toronto Area are instead in the suburbs, where maps are also being heavily redrawn.
In Toronto Centre, Ms. Freeland won 57 of the neighbourhood polls within what will be the new riding boundaries, compared to 38 for Ms. McQuaig, a Globe and Mail review of polling results shows. The Liberals demonstrated organizational strength, winning 11 of 13 advance polls in the entire current riding, which parties often direct their supporters to whenever possible.
For Liberals, the results in what will be the new riding show the party's brand and organizational ability was strong throughout the existing one, even with Rosedale excluded. But for New Democrats, it's a sign that the long-time Liberal stronghold is up for the taking in 2015.
"This significant growth is certainly a good sign for 2015," said Karl Bélanger, NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair's principal secretary. He said the party was "encouraged by the impressive growth" in the riding.
"That's why Toronto [NDP] MPs will keep working hard on key issues such as transit, affordable housing and income inequality in order to defeat Stephen Harper and replace him with a government Torontonians can trust to work for them and their family's future."
With the new boundaries, it's not clear who the candidates will be. Central Toronto, currently represented by Ms. Freeland and NDP MP Olivia Chow, will get a third riding.
There's no guarantee that Ms. Freeland will run again in the new Toronto Centre. Part of her current riding will become University-Rosedale, including the Summerhill neighbourhood where Ms. Freeland reportedly bought a home upon returning to Toronto. She hasn't said where she'll run.
"The nomination process hasn't started yet on our side. And as far as numbers are concerned, we won't be speculating on results in the new ridings for the next general election," the Liberal Party's Andrée-Lyne Hallé said. Ms. Chow, meanwhile, is said to be considering a run to be Toronto's mayor, and the NDP say Ms. McQuaig, who they would like to have back as a candidate, hasn't said where or if she'll run again.
Mr. Mulcair had speculated Ms. McQuaig may run in the new riding of Spadina–Fort York, to the west of Toronto-Centre. "Take Monday's results, superimpose it on Fort York. Guess what? Linda McQuaig, you haven't heard the last from her," Mr. Mulcair said last month. A sliver of Toronto-Centre's current boundaries, south of the Esplanade, will be lobbed off into Spadina–Fort York and was won by the NDP on Nov. 25, but the riding is otherwise largely made up of Ms. Chow's turf. (Ms. Chow said Mr. Mulcair was "mixed up" and meant Ms. McQuaig could run in Toronto Centre.) The new Toronto Centre riding stretches roughly from Bloor to the Esplanade, between Yonge and the Don River, with other small sections. Some of the by-election polls are mostly, but not entirely, in the ridings. And a stretch between Bay and Yonge, from Front up to Dundas, is added to the new riding but wasn't in the old one – meaning there was no by-election data to compare the performances of Ms. Freeland and Ms. McQuaig in those areas. These factors make it impossible to entirely compare results.
Nonetheless, the by-election polls give a glimpse of the starting points for each party heading into the next federal election.
Polls show Ms. Freeland won nearly all of Cabbagetown; nearly every riding east of Parliament Street; and all but a few polls between Queen Street and Front Street.
Ms. McQuaig, meanwhile, was stronger in the riding's northwest and southwest pockets. She won polls between Front Street and the Esplanade; through the neighbourhoods near St. Mike's Hospital, Ryerson University and Allan Gardens; several ridings north of Carlton Street, along Jarvis; in St. Jamestown; and in many of the ridings north of Wellesley Street.
Josh Wingrove is a parliamentary reporter in Ottawa.