Malian soldiers point their AK-47 rifles during a training session given by a French army officer in Koulikoro May 7, 2013.STRINGER/Reuters
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Remember that stunning French invasion of Mali? It was back in January, and sparked countries from around the world to quickly pledge money to back a multi-national African intervention force.
But Ottawa just announced its first $10-million pledge Monday night, four months later than the dozens of countries who ponied up for the African force, known as AFISMA.
By now, it seems like kind of a parting gift, since the African troops are supposed to be merged into a United Nations peacekeeping mission. But it's a good thing Ottawa has finally finished the paperwork so that it can offer some support now, at a conference on Mali in Brussels held as Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird visits Africa.
Mali's troubles, and the risk to its neighbours, are in danger of being forgotten by the world. And that's often when situations like the one in and around Mali, a simmering Islamist insurgency that threatens the stability of several countries, fester into something worse.
"I see a train wreck in slow motion," said J. Peter Pham, the Washington-based director of the Atlantic Council's Michael S. Ansari Africa Centre.
Let's recap how Mali's mess unfolded. The country had a weak government in the south, where most of the population lives, which had little control over an ethnic Tuareg rebellion in the vast, sparse north. Islamist fighters, including al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, entered the country, and allied themselves with nationalist Tuaregs. A March, 2012, coup by Malian soldiers displaced the government. Then Islamist extremists pushed aside Tuareg nationalists and started a drive toward Bamako. That's when French forces went in to push them back into the desert.
Canada, like other western nations, didn't want to join the fighting. The Harper government was even reluctant to provide training and other support; they sent a transport plane, on short deadlines. They suggested they would provide aid to neighbouring countries, reeling from drought and a flow of Malian refugees.
Now, France wants to withdraw its 4,000 troops – about half in July, the rest by the end of the year. 2,000 Chadian troops are already gone. AFISMA, with about 6,000 troops remaining, is to be transformed into a UN peacekeeping force, but it's not enough. "The numbers don't add up," Mr. Pham said.
"The things are beginning to happen that we saw in Iraq, that we saw in Afghanistan. They've chased extremist groups out of the larger towns. They've scared them out into the bush, but they haven't eliminated them," he said. Now, those groups are planting IEDs and sending suicide bombers into towns.
He says it will be important for France to keep troops there longer, until there can be political reconciliation. That's unlikely unless western countries give French President François Hollande political cover for an unpopular move by offering military support, like intelligence, drones, communications, and so on.
Mr. Pham argues western countries are also making a mistake by pushing Bamako into new elections in July. Canada made that a major element of its diplomacy. But Mali's not ready, and quick elections are likely to re-elect the same-old tired political elites they had before, and that's only going to exacerbate grievances, including those in the north, Mr. Pham argues. "Elections should be a step toward national reconciliation, not something that will make even more people aggrieved," he said.
There's another danger: a regrouping insurgency might threaten Mali's neighbours, such as Niger and Mauritania. Mr. Pham says he marvels that Niger has not "gone over the edge." It has handled its own Tuareg minority better, but it's a poor, "marginal," country at the best of times. The neighbours need military co-operation, like training and equipment, from the U.S. and other western countries. And countries like Niger need aid, because their stretched resources make them weak states.
Back in January, Canada did announce an additional $13-million in aid for Malians, some of which went to help refugees in neighbouring countries. It's a small amount for a country that said its role was to be aid and diplomacy, not military action. "We have to be worrying about the neighbouring states," Mr. Pham said. "We ought to try to work to prevent them from crumbling."
Campbell Clark reports on foreign affairs from the Ottawa bureau.