Mekhi Rutherford (right) participates in a class exercise with his teacher Darcie Sutherland during his Senior Kindergarten class at Ellen Fairclough Public Shchool in Markham.Anne-Marie Jackson for The Globe and Mail
It was a year in which pre-election jockeying increasingly dominated Ontario's political landscape. And from sex education to "eco fees" to the "secret G20 law," Dalton McGuinty's Liberals found themselves on the defensive over issues that hadn't even been on the radar heading into it.
But it was also a year in which the defining issues of Mr. McGuinty's second term continued to play themselves out. Last December, Adam Radwanski previewed the major storylines of 2010. Now he looks back at his original forecasts, and what really happened.
SELLING OFF CROWN JEWELS
What we said: The biggest debate raging within Liberal circles is whether to privatize one of the province's major assets. If so, the easiest option would be Hydro One, but the LCBO and the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corp. are also candidates. It comes down to whether a deal could be presented as a long-term plan, not a fire sale.
What happened: No deal - but it took a long time to decide that. For the first half of the year, the government flirted with the idea of merging several assets into one massive corporation, then selling shares while maintaining a public interest. In July, The Globe and Mail revealed that "Supercorp" was dead in the water. Finance Minister Dwight Duncan blamed "the sheer size of the thing, and how unwieldy it would be."
BATTLING THE DEFICIT
What we said: Even setting aside asset sales, the Liberals have to figure out how aggressively to battle their $24.7-billion deficit in the next budget. Are they prepared to do battle with public servants, or face the backlash from freezing spending on key services? Or will they keep belt-tightening to a relative minimum, on the premise that - a year after governments across the Western world went berserk with stimulus spending - a big deficit isn't that big a deal?
What happened: The deficit is falling, slowly. Austerity measures included a more modest plan to fund Transit City, which was supposed to be former Toronto Mayor David Miller's legacy project, and a late-year pledge to shrink the number of provincial agencies. But the Liberals largely backed away from what seemed to be the biggest battle - a public-sector salary freeze, which was promised in Mr. Duncan's spring budget with seemingly little consideration of how it would be achieved.
WRESTLING HEALTH-CARE COSTS
What we said: Everyone knows health-care spending, set to take up half of program expenditures by 2015, is growing at an unsustainable rate. Less clear is what to do about it. The government is gearing up for a fight with pharmacies to reduce spending on the Ontario Drug Benefit. But the savings won't be huge. Will it also take on doctors or hospitals?
What happened: The pharmacy fight proved one of the big successes of Mr. McGuinty's second term, with Health Minister Deb Matthews staring down chain drugstores. But elsewhere, save for an opposition-driven crackdown on hospitals' hiring of lobbyists, the Liberals mostly laid the groundwork for battles to come - a further shift toward "patient-based funding" for hospitals, and the establishment of best-practice guidelines for physicians. It's unlikely any of those battles will play out before the October, 2011 election.
THE HST (ANTI)CLIMAX
What we said: Starting in July, we'll see just how big a deal the HST is to Ontarians. The Liberals are counting on consumers to be underwhelmed when the new tax starts being collected - to conclude that it doesn't newly affect that many goods, and that the opposition overhyped it. Their re-election hopes in 2011 will rest largely on that calculation being correct.
What happened: There was no populist uprising, as there was in British Columbia. But there's a sense that Ontarians are doing a slow burn. Political strategists say that, in and of itself, the HST won't bring down Mr. McGuinty's government. But it could play into a broader anger over pocketbook issues - particularly when it comes to energy bills, which provincial sales tax is now added onto.
POWER POLITICS
What we said: The province's energy policy has been in limbo since George Smitherman's departure to run for mayor of Toronto. It can't stay that way. On green energy, the biggest question is whether to proceed with a controversial multibillion-dollar deal with the Samsung Group, which Mr. Smitherman championed. No less important is whether the government finally settles on a plan to build new nuclear reactors. Diminished energy demand helped put it on the backburner in 2009. But if the province doesn't have the capacity to meet increasing demand, it will severely affect its economic renewal.
What happened: Heading into the year, energy unrest was bubbling under the surface; by fall, it had boiled over. The province moved ahead with the Samsung deal; it still hasn't finalized a reactor purchase, which (along with more renewables) is at the core of the long-term energy plan unveiled in November. But from a political perspective, the big story was the Liberals' attempt to quell consumer anger - including the introduction of a 10-per-cent rebate for consumers to dull the sting from rising bills, and the cancellation of plans to build a gas-fired power plant in Oakville. With bills still predicted to rise dramatically in the next few years, it's doubtful Ontarians have been sufficiently appeased.
CHANGES IN THE CABINET
What we said: There will be a major cabinet shuffle early in the year; there might even be a second, once former Winnipeg mayor Glen Murray takes his seat in the legislature after a by-election. The most pressing need for Mr. McGuinty is to replace Mr. Smitherman.
What happened: The biggest move was the appointment of Brad Duguid to Energy, where he's been tasked with putting energy policy in layman's terms rather than speaking to the sector. Meanwhile, Glen Murray and Bob Chiarelli, high-profile newcomers to caucus, were promptly elevated to cabinet over some backbenchers' objections. In the summer, John Gerretsen was demoted from Environment, following the "eco fees" fiasco, and Rick Bartolucci was swapped out of Community Safety after his mishandling of the province's G20 security law. A final, unexpected change came in December, when Charles Sousa was installed as Labour Minister after Peter Fonseca was poached by the federal Liberals.
KINDERGARTEN POLITICS
What we said: Mr. McGuinty's legacy project, full-day kindergarten, will begin its lengthy rollout in September. Before then, an awful lot - including registration, curriculum development and staffing structures, not to mention finalizing which schools it will be in - has to happen. If that doesn't go smoothly, the ensuing chaos will cause some parents to turn against a policy supposed to win their votes.
What happened: There were bumps in the road, resulting from a hurried process and some turf battles between ministries, and one significant about-face when the government announced that outside agencies (rather than schools themselves) would be permitted to provide before- and after-school programs. But the program is still seen as a net positive, from a political perspective, for Mr. McGuinty's Liberals - and will be all the more so in 2011, when full-day kindergarten comes to another 200 schools.
THE OPPOSITION
What we said: Tim Hudak, the novice leader of the Progressive Conservatives, did what he needed to do in 2009 - professionalizing his party's operations, and re-engaging members after a disheartening few years. Now, Mr. Hudak will need to start worrying about how he presents to other Ontarians. Look for a softening of his image, with other Tories playing attack dog. The bigger task will be to start carving out a serious alternative vision for the province, not just opposing whatever the Liberals are doing.
What happened: Maybe an alternative vision wasn't so urgent after all. The Tories showed little interest in talking about their own policies, for fear of taking the heat off the Liberals. Although Mr. Hudak spent lots of time on the road speaking with interest groups and rallying the like-minded, and introduced himself via a television commercial, his profile (despite leading in the polls) remains low. That will begin to change when he started rolling out more policies, probably in the spring of 2011. Until then, consider it a slow build.
SCANDALS
What we said: By the end of 2009, controversy surrounding spending practices at provincial agencies began dying down. But the Tories have been hinting for months that they have more dirt. If so, they'll be looking to bring it to light early in 2010, lest everyone move on.
What happened: The spending controversies underwhelmed, despite dubious opposition attempts to paint hospitals' consulting contracts as "eHealth 2.0." But the Liberals found other ways to plunge themselves into the muck, mostly by mismanaging issues - from sex education to G20 security to eco fees - that flew under the radar until it was too late. As a result, they spent another year mostly on the defensive.
THE ECONOMY
What we said: Never mind that it might have more to do with what happens in Washington, and to a lesser extent Ottawa, than at Queen's Park. If Ontario's economy shows strong signs of rebounding by the end of 2010, Mr. McGuinty will disproportionately claim credit for it (holding up decisions like the HST). If it's stagnant, he'll be disproportionately blamed by the opposition (holding up decisions like the HST). Either way, it will have an enormous bearing on Ontarians' mood in 2011.
What happened: Ontario's unemployment rate went down in 2010, from 9.3 per cent at the start of the year to 8.2 per cent by November, and the economy grew about 140,000 jobs over twelve months. But the jobs picture is still in considerably worse shape than it was pre-recession. And from a political perspective, much of the well-documented anti-incumbent unrest can be chalked up to the slow trickle-down of economic recovery. It may be abstract, but that anger will make matters very difficult for Mr. McGuinty next fall if the recovery isn't felt more strongly by then.