Michael Ignatieff is a tactile man. He plunged into the few-score supporters huddled in a gazebo in search of shelter from a torrential rain on Tuesday - listening, laughing, shaking his head, almost always with his hand on a shoulder, or his hands enfolding another's. This is alien to Stephen Harper.
The Liberal Leader's six-week bus tour is make-or-break. Canadians don't like him. Even worse, the Liberal Party is, at its core, smaller than the Conservative Party. Unless Mr. Ignatieff begins to alter these truths during his conversations with Canadians during this last lull before an election that is almost certainly coming next spring, and possibly sooner, he is likely to lose that election, and with it the leadership of his party.
Success will not be measured by an uptick in this or that poll. It will be measured in the extent to which voters, watching or hearing about his progress across the nation this summer, start to reconsider Mr. Ignatieff and the party he leads. To do that, three things must happen. Mr. Ignatieff must:
Improve his brand
Mr. Ignatieff, through his own uncertain performance, and the Conservatives, through clever exploitation of his missteps, have entrenched an unattractive Brand Ignatieff. In a poll released Monday by Angus Reid, respondents tended to characterize him as out of touch and arrogant. While Prime Minister Stephen Harper fared little better - he was seen as secretive and arrogant - voters trusted him over Mr. Ignatieff to lead the country.
To rebrand himself, the Liberal Leader must use this summer interlude to project his personal warmth, at least when compared with Mr. Harper, and to differentiate Liberal and Conservative values in a way that flatters Liberals. This was very much his intent Tuesday, when at stop after stop he spoke of the Tories' preference for "tax cuts for wealthy corporations" rather than investments in health care and education.
Thus far, that message has not resonated. This time it simply must.
Retrieve the base
Since 2005, with a few exceptions, the Liberals have floated between 25 and 30 per cent in the polls, while the Conservatives have been at 30 to 35 per cent. So the Natural Governing Party is now the Natural Opposition Party. The Conservative base is larger than the Liberal base.
Take Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, where Mr. Ignatieff made two appearances Tuesday. The riding is heavily franco-Ontarian, historically a bedrock of Liberal support. Former cabinet minister Don Boudria represented the riding for an eternity.
But when Mr. Boudria stepped down, voter disgust over the sponsorship scandal delivered the riding to the Conservatives in 2006, while the unpopularity of Stéphane Dion's Green Shift platform among farmers kept it Tory in 2008. A sine qua non of returning to power is shoring up this eroded base.
The Liberals are also increasingly losing immigrant and suburban voters to the Conservatives. If Mr. Ignatieff cannot bring them back, the party could lose a large part of its former base for good.
Catch a break
Obviously, having the Liberal tour bus on Day One was no help. But the larger picture shows the Liberal Party unable to capitalize on Conservative mistakes and misfortunes - from the winter prorogation to the billion-dollar summits. Tory popularity may sag for a while, but rebounds, as Liberal numbers likewise slump to normal levels.
This shouldn't surprise. Major recent controversies failed to differentiate the parties. Since when did Liberals revere the rights of Parliament? Who thinks they are better at organizing conference security?
Mr. Ignatieff needs a crisis that promotes his party's modestly progressive values and shows up the Conservatives as cruel and incompetent. A major oil spill would be nice. But let's not.