Ontario says the federal government should pay for any extra costs coming from the new prison sentencing act.
The price tag for the federal legislation to stop giving criminals a two-for-one credit for time served in pre-custody could be $10-billion over five years for federal and provincial governments.
That's according to research by the Parliamentary Budget Officer in a report to be released in mid-May. The watchdog's massive and complex report will argue that the lion's share of those costs will fall on provincial budgets, say people familiar with the research.
If that's the case, Ontario will be looking for compensation, said Tony Brown, a spokesman for Ontario's Ministry of Community Safety and Correctional Services.
"It's still too early to say what Ontario's costs will be," Mr. Brown said. "If there is any significant impact on the provinces or territories, we hope that the federal government will assist financially by providing us with our fair share toward costs, so that we can implement the legislation as effectively and as expeditiously as possible."
The Truth in Sentencing Act came into force in February, supported by several provinces as well as federal opposition parties. The act will extend the amount of time criminals spend in prison. But it was passed without legislators having any idea what the impact would be on prison populations or costs.
This week, Public Safety Minister Vic Toews suddenly came up with a $2-billion estimate for the federal side of costs, over five years. That was only after The Canadian Press revealed that the budget watchdog was poised to report that the cost was in the billions, and that provincial governments would shoulder most of it.
Previously, Mr. Toews had said the cost would be $90-million over two years.
Mr. Toews insists the bill will lighten the burden on provincial corrections systems, since longer sentences will mean a larger proportion of prisoners will fall into federal hands.
"Clearly there's going to be some reduction for the provincial government given the shift of individuals out of the provincial facilities and into federal facilities," he said this week.
The Quebec government agrees with that assessment, said Mario Vaillancourt, a spokesman for the Minister of Public Security.
But Manitoba's government says the federal government is making so many major changes to the penal system that it is too soon to be able to calculate the impact.
Liberal MP Mark Holland, who asked the Parliamentary Budget Officer to examine the costing issue, is concerned that the extra burden will push an already-strained corrections system too far - both at the provincial and federal levels.
"There's only one taxpayer, and at the end of the day if provinces are getting billions dumped on them, with no support, obviously it's going to create a system that's near the breaking point and push it right to the edge," he said. "This is clearly a situation that presents a huge public safety risk, because we're just basically doing crowd control in the prisons."
He wants the federal Conservatives to release costing estimates for their entire tough-on-crime agenda, but Mr. Toews has said he will not divulge that information.
"The government is sprinting forward to play politics with a system that is going to have profound implications for the corrections systems … and for the treasury," Mr. Holland said. "Let's at least know what we're getting ourselves into, so we can have an honest debate."
Mr. Toews insists that the price of the change is well worth paying to keep criminals off the streets.
The Parliamentary Budget Officer had originally intended to release his report on the sentencing act this Monday, but it has been delayed for about a week due to production issues.