NDP Leader Jack Layton speaks to reporters in the foyer of the House of Commons on March 21, 2011.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
1. Hurry up and wait. Jack Layton will take his time declaring whether he will or will not support budget being delivered by the Harper government Tuesday afternoon.
In fact, the NDP Leader will sleep on it. He likely won't make his views known until after he meets with his caucus Wednesday morning, according to a senior Layton official.
"We'll be looking at the response to our priorities and whether the response consists of half measures and vague promises or a serious commitment as weighed against any areas of toxicity and poison," the official told The Globe Tuesday morning.
All of this draws out the drama of this pivotal week in political Ottawa. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is to release his budget at 4 p.m. ET but a few key initiatives have already leaked out - ones meant to be appease Mr. Layton and his New Democrats.
The Tories are wooing Mr. Layton since it will most likely be his party that decides whether Stephen Harper's government survives. It takes all three opposition parties to defeat the government and so far both the Liberals and Bloc have strongly indicated they won't support the budget.
Against all of this, Mr. Layton will remain non-committal - at least overnight.
"The plan is that Jack Layton will study the budget and make the decision in consultation with his caucus' priorities," the official said. "Don't be surprised if Mr. Layton only declares whether he will or will not support the budget on Wednesday following the NDP caucus."
The official noted the NDP has been clear about its budget wish-list: "raising every senior out of poverty, making lasting changes to double the CPP, thereby guaranteeing pension security for Canadians, helping five million Canadians without a family doctor, making life more affordable by removing the HST off home heating and restoring the EcoEnergy retrofit program."
The government leaked to reporters Monday that it will meet some of those demands, including $400 million to renew the EcoEnergyrRetrofit program, help for seniors by increasing the Guaranteed Income Supplement and a nod to the NDP healthcare demand by forgiving up to $40,000 of student loans for new doctors and $20,000 for nurses who practice in rural and remote areas.
"But with any budget, the devil will be in the details," the official said. "That is why we will be studying the budget to make sure we can support it."
2. Locked and loaded. Never mind the dance by opposition leaders around whether or not to bring down the government. All parties are ready to go into an election.
Campaign planes are being painted and "wrapped" with party logos so they'll be ready for mid-week, just in case. Senior Liberal officials visited The Globe and Mail's parliamentary bureau Monday, outlining what they hope will unfold in the upcoming campaign. Michael Ignatieff, they said, will be making the case across the country that Stephen Harper is "out of touch" and "out of control."
The Liberals say the Ignatieff campaign will be spontaneous and relaxed, playing off of his summer Liberal Express tour in which he went into communities across the country by bus and met one-on-one with Canadians. This in contrast to a Prime Minister, who the Liberals criticize for being so stage-managed that he never meets with ordinary citizens.
On the Conservative side, Defence Minister Peter MacKay said on Canada AM Tuesday morning that his campaign signs are already in his headquarters. In fact, MPs from all parties are reporting the same.
Given all of this, one wonders whether the genie can be put back into the bottle. The campaign already seems to be on.
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