Politics Briefing newsletter: BC Greens hold balance of power

B.C. ELECTION

B.C. has ended 16 years of Liberal majority rule, plunging the province into a minority government for the first time in more than half a century and leaving much of what happens next in the hands of the Green Party, which now wields more power than it ever has in a Canadian legislature.

BC Liberal Premier Christy Clark is still in charge, but pretty much everything else is up in the air. The leaders of all three major parties gave what sounded like victory speeches last night, as they prepare for weeks of potential recounts and negotiations that will shape the future of the government. Green Leader Andrew Weaver, who will be joined in the legislature by his Green colleagues Adam Olsen and Sonia Furstenau, hasn't said who he's prepared to work with – or the potential price of his co-operation. And the results themselves could shift, with at least one recount likely and absentee ballots still to be counted, which won't happen for another two weeks.

Most voters in B.C. have never lived through a minority government at the provincial level; the last time an election ended in a minority was in 1952, and that government survived less than a year. As incumbent premier, Ms. Clark has the first chance to form a government, whose fate would be tested when the legislature votes on its first throne speech. If Ms. Clark can't bring the Greens on board, it would then fall to Mr. Weaver and NDP Leader John Horgan to attempt to make something work.

But there's still a chance it may not even come to that if the Liberals pick up one more seat. The riding to watch is  Courtenay-Comox, which the NDP won with a margin of just nine votes. It could be sent for a recount since it was decided by fewer than 100 votes, and the result could also change when absentee ballots are added. The final count, including absentee ballots, doesn't begin until May 22 to allow all ballots to be sent to district electoral officers. In 2013, the absentee ballots in Comox Valley, most of which became the riding of Courtenay-Comox this year, were split between the Liberals and the NDP, which had a slight edge.

If the minority holds, the Greens will have the most say about what's next. Mr. Weaver is striking an optimistic tone, saying he doesn't see any reason a minority government couldn't last a full four-year term. But it will depend on what the other parties can do for him. Mr. Weaver has said he expects any new government to immediately table a bill outlawing corporate and union donations – something the Liberals have resisted – and he's also opposed many of the resource projects championed by Ms. Clark's government. For now, he seems to be enjoying himself: "I'm on the upside of the roller coaster right now – it's fun."

Gary Mason (The Globe and Mail) on why the Liberals lost: "No matter how you frame this outcome, it represents a devastating blow to the Liberals, which had assumed a 'natural-governing party' aura, so lengthy was their reign, so formidable the political machine they had built. In recent years, however, their success had begun to give off a scent of arrogance and smugness."

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CANADIAN POLITICS

The Canada Infrastructure Bank will receive just one day of parliamentary study, as the Liberals hope to speed along debate of their budget bill before the summer break next month.

The Ontario NDP's deputy leader Jagmeet Singh will run for leader of the federal party, sources tell The Canadian Press.

Canada and Iran are quietly working to re-establish a diplomatic relationship. Officials from both governments have met multiple times since the Trudeau Liberals took power in 2015.

And Don Meredith is stepping down from his role as a Senator before his colleagues get the chance to vote him out.

Campbell Clark (The Globe and Mail) on Don Meredith: "In the end, the Senate essentially made him a test case, and decided it had the power to expel a senator for egregious behaviour that damages the public trust. That's a precedent that now hangs over every senator. That's good."

INTERNATIONAL POLITICS

U.S. President Donald Trump fired FBI Director James Comey in a move that can only be described as abrupt and shocking. Mr. Comey was in charge of the ongoing investigation into whether Mr. Trump's campaign colluded with Russia during the 2016 election. To repeat: the President of the United States fired his country's top law enforcement official, while said law enforcement official was leading a criminal investigation into the president. POLITICO's tick-tock says that Mr. Trump had been thinking about ousting Mr. Comey for a week because he was enraged at why the Russia issue wouldn't disappear. Today, Mr. Trump is meeting with Russia's foreign minister. It is highly unlikely that talk of the Trump team's ties to Russia die down anytime soon.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is putting the prospect of pulling out of NAFTA back on the table weeks after Mr. Trump dropped his threat to leave the trilateral agreement.

And in France, an army of cyber hackers came for Emmanuel Macron. His campaign was ready. They created fake e-mail accounts with false documents in an attempt to thwart the hackers.

David Frum (The Atlantic) on what comes next: "Now comes the hour of testing. Will the American system resist? Or will it be suborned? The question has to be asked searchingly of the Republican members of Congress: Will you allow a president of your party to attack the integrity of the FBI? You impeached Bill Clinton for lying about sex. Will you now condone and protect a Republican administration lying about espionage?"

Ruth Marcus (The Washington Post) on Trump's rationale: "Trump's priority is, first and always, Trump. Which raises the question: Knowing, as he must have, that firing Comey would set off a firestorm, why did he calculate that this move was in his self-interest?"

SECUREDROP

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PLAYOFFS

The Ottawa Senators have advanced to the Eastern Conference Final for the first time since 2007 after beating the New York Rangers in six games.

Tonight, the Edmonton Oilers play the Anaheim Ducks in Game 7 for a spot in the Western Conference Final.

Written by Chris Hannay in Ottawa, Mayaz Alam in Toronto and James Keller in Vancouver.