The Peace Tower is seen behind a sign mocking Prime Minister Stephen Harper during an Ottawa anti-prorogation rally on Saturday, Jan. 23, 2010.
Stephen Harper's Olympic bounce so far cannot compete with his prorogation slide.
Now the question is whether prorogation was a minor misstep from which he can quickly recover, or a too-clever tactic that exposed a flaw his opponents can exploit.
Mr. Harper's Conservatives appear to have stopped a three-month slide in the polls, just before MPs return to a long-idled Parliament on Wednesday.
Few people, even among Conservatives in Ottawa, have viewed Mr. Harper's move as anything other than a miscue since he decided to suspend Parliament two days before New Year's Eve, arguing it would allow time to "recalibrate" his agenda.
It sparked a surprising backlash as the opposition argued it was a tactic to dodge a controversy over the treatment of detainees in Afghan prisons, and paint Mr. Harper as over-controlling and "hyper-partisan."
Still, the latest Ekos polls found the Conservatives starting to break out of weeks of a statistical tie with the Liberals, with 33.4 per cent choosing the Tories and 30.3 per cent picking the Grits.
Mr. Harper has a history of doing better driving the political agenda - and a new parliamentary agenda, and budget, give him a chance to do it.
But pollster Frank Graves says he thinks prorogation planted the seed for a bigger problem for Mr. Harper: His personal approval ratings plummeted, and now most voters outside his base of Tory supporters disapprove of his performance.
Prorogation, he says, "was more of a trigger than the actual ammunition."
"It lit the fuse that consolidated a whole series of anxieties and concerns that a certain portion of the electorate were having about Mr. Harper's management style."
Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff, whose own team was in disarray, gained needed time. Weeks of Parliament Hill workshops didn't deliver a noticeable connection with the public, but provided a backdrop to keep critiques of prorogation alive. Mr. Ignatieff began to define a Liberal difference: promising job creation and social programs such as daycare would come before deficit-cutting.
Still, Mr. Ignatieff doesn't appear to have really gained his own ground over prorogation, Mr. Graves said. But he can at least find comfort in what ails Mr. Harper.
Six months ago, Mr. Harper was cruising toward a majority government with a 15-point lead in the polls - sparked by Mr. Ignatieff's fall drive for an election, which Canadians viewed as self-interested and unnecessary, Mr. Graves said.
Prorogation didn't cause all of the decline since. The first dip was a familiar "recoil" effect that occurs each time the Conservatives sail into majority territory.
A second decline came during controversy over Afghan detainees, and particularly allegations of cover-up.
But by late December, the sliding had stopped - until prorogation hit a chord, pushing the Conservatives into a tie with the Liberals. Kudos for aid efforts for Haiti might have arrested the slide, and the Olympics distracted from political battles like prorogation, helping a little Tory bounce, but not much, Mr. Graves said.
"It's nothing that he can't recover from," said Bob Plamondon, a former Conservative insider and historian, who notes Mr. Harper has shrewdly recovered before.
It's his partisan, "competitive streak" where he oversteps on tactics like prorogation, he said. But he argues we have a history of wanting a strong PM who's in control.
Mr. Graves, however, suspects the partisanship, symbolized by prorogation, has had a lasting impact on Mr. Harper's reputation: Outside of a Conservative base who love him, nearly all disapprove.