John Tory hardly looks the part of a riverboat gambler, but this buttoned-down member of Toronto's ruling class is about to roll the dice on the gamble of a lifetime.
Some time later this month, Mr. Tory is set to wager everything - pride, credibility, reputation, political career - on a second bid to become mayor of this city.
He is either very brave or downright foolhardy. Either way, it appears nothing can stop him.
One of his leading supporters said yesterday that the former business executive and Ontario Progressive Conservative leader would make an announcement in the next couple of weeks about his mayoral ambitions.
Mr. Tory, he said, speaking on background, "will have a very strong campaign with lots of breadth and depth city-wide."
No doubt about that. Mr. Tory came a close second to David Miller in the 2003 mayoral race. An early poll taken last fall showed he was by far the leading choice of Torontonians in the election, to be held on Oct. 25.
But, then, he has looked like a winner before, only to crash and burn. His Conservatives had a good shot at unseating Premier Dalton McGuinty's Liberals in 2007 before Mr. Tory came up with a plan to extend government funding to faith-based schools. That wildly unpopular stand cost him both the election and his own seat. He went on to lose a by-election for a "safe" seat, a disaster that cost him his job as Conservative leader.
Add in his loss to Mr. Miller for mayor and Mr. Tory is a three-time loser. If he lost again this October - oh my, what a humiliation. He would wear an L on his chest like the scarlet letter for the rest of his days. His long-nursed hopes of emerging from the backrooms and boardrooms to apply his gifts in political office would be finished.
Why would anyone want to subject himself to such a risk? A cynic would say that, like all politicians, Mr. Tory is a power-hungry creature who can't resist being drawn to the electoral flame. That doesn't ring true. Mr. Tory may have a degree of ego, but he is no megalomaniac. To the contrary, if he has failed over and over in his political life, it is in part because he seems to lack the raw instinct for power.
A more charitable interpretation is that Mr. Tory is willing to risk it all in a final bid for mayor because he is a driven individual who genuinely thinks he can make a difference in the life of the city.
Public service runs in his veins. So does politics. He was a force in Conservative politics for years before he ran for anything himself. He has been a force in charitable causes, too. He has a fierce, nerdy interest in policy issues and can talk a Tory blue streak on everything from recycling bins to property taxes. There is seldom any dead air on his three-hours-a-day drive-time radio talk show.
As the son of a wealthy lawyer and product of the old Toronto elite, he was brought up to work hard, never say die and always make sure to give something back. Seen through the lens of his background, his run for mayor is less a mad kamikaze dive than the final charge of bloodied knight on a chivalric mission.
If he is smart, that is how he will sell himself in this campaign - as the tireless campaigner, bloodied but unbowed, who cares so much about the city that he is willing to put everything on the line in a bid to set Toronto straight. It just might work.
It is a breathtaking gamble all the same.