UKIP Leader Paul Nuttall chats with local fishermen at the quayside as he campaigns in Boston on May 12, 2017 in Boston, United Kingdom. Mr Nuttall has chosen to stand in the Boston and Skegness seat in the June 8th general election. The town of Boston in Lincolnshire voted with a 75% majority to leave the European Union during the 2016 referendum, giving it the highest proportion of Brexit voters in the UK.Jack Taylor/Getty Images
One year ago this small town along the eastern coast of England was at the epicentre of Britain's fierce debate over Brexit and whether the country should remain part of the European Union.
It was here that many of the forces that led Britain to vote to leave the EU played out. Average family incomes in Boston are among the lowest in the country and immigration has changed the makeup of this community of 69,000. In recent years, many people from Poland, Latvia, Romania and Lithuania have arrived to work in the nearby food-processing plants. There's been tension over the number of Polish shops and complaints that foreigners are overwhelming the housing market. So it wasn't surprising that Boston voted 76 per cent to leave the EU, the highest percentage in Britain. But now as the country heads to the polls for a general election on June 8, Brexit is no longer the burning issue in Boston. "I think in general the town has moved on," local councillor Paul Gleeson said. "And it was wanting to move on."
It's the same story across much of the country.
Read more: For Britain's May, a calculated election Brexit gamble
One year after a bitter referendum campaign over the EU, British voters head to the polls under very different circumstances. The decision to leave the EU has been largely accepted, but the challenges that lie ahead haven't been fully appreciated. And some say that's a problem because the country could be in for a shock once Britain begins to pull out.
"I think we are in the calm before the storm," said John Thanassoulis, a professor of financial economics at Warwick Business School. "When negotiations [on Britain's departure] start, it's going to be not very pretty. I think that could well translate into quite substantial problems for the U.K. economy."
For now though it's hard to find much enthusiasm for a discussion about Brexit in this election campaign. Roughly 200 kilometres south of Boston in the middle-class London riding of Vauxhall, on the Thames River not far the Parliament Buildings, 78 per cent of people voted to remain in the EU last year. And yet here, too, Brexit rarely comes up in conversations with voters. "It's not an issue anywhere I've been," said Labour MP Kate Hoey, a Brexit backer, as she campaigned door-to-door last week. "People, believe it or not, are not coming out and talking about Brexit."
Most people in Britain "feel that they've resolved the issue of Brexit," said Patrick Dunleavy, a professor of political science at the London School of Economics. "They don't want to revisit it again. It's getting very complicated for them."
He and others say the public has yet to fully acknowledge or confront the complexities of what lies ahead. Negotiations with the EU on Britain's departure are expected to begin in earnest after the German election in September and they'll last at least two years. But the political landscape for those talks, both in Britain and the EU, has changed dramatically.
Last year's victory by Vote Leave, by a margin of 52 per cent to 48 per cent, stunned pundits and pollsters. But since then the population has come around to the idea and polls show 68 per cent of the population now backs Brexit. The ruling Conservatives changed tack well, electing a new leader and prime minister, Theresa May, to replace David Cameron, who resigned after losing the referendum campaign.
Ms. May quickly embraced Brexit and rallied the country with promises to break all ties to the EU and talk tough with EU leaders about the terms of separation. Confidence about Brexit increased as the economy unexpectedly roared ahead and unemployment fell to a 40-year low. Meanwhile the EU looked weak, rattled by rising anti-EU populism and grappling with a sluggish economy. Everything pointed to advantages for Britain. But now things have turned.
Ms. May appears to have overplayed her hand. She tried to cash in on her growing popularity by calling a snap election last month, determined to make her leadership on Brexit a key issue. But the public isn't biting and voters are focusing on topics such as heating allowances, social-care costs and tax hikes. The Tory lead in opinion polls is narrowing and while the party is still expected to win, Ms. May might not get the overwhelming mandate she wanted to face off against the EU.
Meanwhile the EU has rebounded. The populist movement has been largely subdued and EU leaders have shown remarkable unity with a tough line on Brexit. They have rejected Ms. May's starting point for negotiations and demanded that Britain first discuss payment of its bill for leaving, which could be as high as €60-billion, or $91-billion, to cover obligations such as pension costs. The recent election of Emmanuel Macron as the President of France and the likely re-election of German Chancellor Angela Merkel in September also mean that the EU will have two powerful pro-European leaders.
If Ms. May wins the election, most analysts doubt she'll be able to stick to her hardline on Brexit. "I think events will overtake her," said Tony Travers a professor of government at the London School of Economics. He noted that the government is already facing pressure to protect sectors such as car manufacturing, farming and financial firms that depend on unfettered trade with the EU.
"Just take agriculture. It's less than 1 per cent of [Britain's gross domestic product] with a very, very powerful lobby," he said. "The truth is that farming will request and require the replacement of [the EU's] common agricultural policy in a way that as far as possible ensures nobody loses."
There are also growing voices against Ms. May's approach to Brexit. The Liberal Democrats have joined several organizations in pushing for Britain to keep some ties to the EU and they have targeted several pro-Brexit MPs and candidates. "There's a big chunk of the population that believes we are heading in the wrong direction," said Elliot Chapman-Jones, who is campaigning for the Liberal Democrats against Ms. Hoey in London.
Back in Boston, the local MP Matt Warman, a Conservative, said the issues he hears most about on the doorsteps are road repairs, access to Internet service and the health care. "People want to get on with [Brexit]," he said as he took a break from campaigning in the Moon Under Water pub. "They want to make sure that we get the best deal. They don't want to rerun the arguments of June last year."