Silvio Berlusconi may have survived the political battle of his life, but he's viewed more than ever as dead billionaire walking.
As central Rome erupted in anti-government riots, the Italian Prime Minister defeated a crucial non-confidence vote in the Chamber of Deputies, the government's lower house, by a paper-thin margin of three votes. He was, however, deprived of the outright majority that would have protected him against the rebel raids that have left him bloodied in recent months.
The betting is that Mr. Berlusconi's coalition of two parties - his sole remaining partner is the Northern League, led by Umberto Bossi - will face another political crisis within months, maybe weeks, triggering a spring election. The question is whether Mr. Berlusconi, who is 74 and has been Prime Minister three times since 1994, will be the man to lead his People of Liberty party in yet another campaign.
"Whether you like it or not, you have reached the end of the line for your political experience," said Antonio Di Pietro, the former anti-corruption judge who leads the Italy of Values opposition party and who accused Mr. Berlusconi of blatant vote-buying. "You do not have a political majority that would allow you to govern."
Even some members of Mr. Berlusconi's party admitted that Tuesday's vote presents as many problems as it solves. While their man still clings to power, his weakened base leaves him highly vulnerable to legislative defeats. Mr. Bossi has stated repeatedly he is in favour of an early election rather attempting to bolster the ailing coalition by luring back as many mutineers as it can.
James Walston, international relations professor at the American University of Rome, thinks Mr. Berlusconi is doomed because he is open to political blackmail more than ever. "There are plenty of legislative bills coming down the pike and he could be held to ransom by any two or three lawmakers," he said. "They could say, 'I will vote against you unless you build us a new airport,' or something else. Everyone has his price."
Mr. Berlusconi's victory, such as it was, marked one of the most emotionally charged days in recent Italian parliamentary history. While parliamentarians were brawling inside - there was pushing and shoving on the parliament floor - tens of thousands of students and pensioners outside were protesting against government cutbacks, lighting up the streets with firecrackers, burning cars and erecting barricades that were set ablaze. Riot police fired tear gas into the crowds.
As expected, Mr. Berlusconi handily won a confidence vote in the Senate, the government's upper chamber, early Tuesday morning, at which point the final battle to win the Chamber of Deputies vote began. Three heavily pregnant lawmakers showed up to vote against the government. One arrived at the chamber in an ambulance, another in a wheelchair. The third, Frederica Mogherini, was applauded by her allies after vowing to vote "unless my water breaks."
When the three pregnant deputies made it clear they would try to bring Mr. Berlusconi down, the odds seemed to shift against the Prime Minister's survival. A few media outlets reported at first that Mr. Berlusconi had lost by a single vote, only to say moments later that he had scraped through.
Mr. Berlusconi's survival strategy centred on begging for political calm to protect Italy from the sovereign-debt attacks that have crippled Ireland and Greece. It appears he even convinced some lawmakers who were not his fans that there would be "disastrous consequences," as he put it, if political instability were heaped on top of economic instability.
He is now expected to try to form a new centre-right coalition government. But that will be a formidable challenge, given the rebels' vow to maintain their government siege until Mr. Berlusconi is permanently parked in his Sardinian mansion. The chief rebel, Gianfranco Fini, had been a close supporter of Mr. Berlusconi until last summer, when he withdrew his support as the Prime Minister's scandals mounted, including allegations of liaisons with teenage girls and prostitutes. Mr. Fini started a new party called Freedom and Liberty and took about 30 deputies with him - a near-fatal blow to Mr. Berlusconi's power base.
"Berlusconi has won this battle but he hasn't won the war," said Grant Amyot, a specialist in Italian politics at Queen's University in Kingston, Ont. "He still has the task of trying to put together a stable majority government, but that's not going to be easy."
Mr. Walston and others think the centre right is already quietly hunting for a successor to Mr. Berlusconi, on the assumption he will be more of a liability than an asset as the ruling coalition tries to broker peace and build momentum for the next election. One favourite is Giulio Tremonti, the Finance and Economy Minister who enjoys support from the ever more popular Northern League as well as European institutions such as the European Central Bank. Another contender is Pierferdinando Casini of the Christian Democrat party (known as the UDC), who is a former ally of Mr. Berlusconi and a former speaker of the Chamber of Deputies.