Republican presidential candidate, former House speaker Newt Gingrich, campaigns at a Chick-Fil-A in Anderson, S.C., Saturday, Jan. 21, 2012, on South Carolina's Republican primary election day.
Republicans in South Carolina voted Saturday for a presidential candidate in the GOP's second primary of 2012. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is competing against former House speaker Newt Gingrich, ex-senator Rick Santorum and congressman Ron Paul. Here are five things to watch from the results.
1. WHO WINS?
If Newt Gingrich pulls off an upset, it will be more than simply humbling for Mitt Romney, who has benefitted from a vastly superior campaign organization. It will pit Mr. Romney against historical precedent, since no candidate has won the Republican nomination without winning the South Carolina primary. Those are powerful odds to overcome and Mr. Romney may need to shake up his campaign to win in the end.
A Gingrich win would dramatically recast the race and mobilize the anti-Romney forces to unite behind the former House of Representatives speaker, setting the stage for a potentially months-long fight for delegates all the way to the August convention.
2. WHAT'S THE MARGIN OF VICTORY?
If Mr. Romney ekes out a win – the best he can hope for at this point – he can breathe easier going into the Jan. 31 Florida primary. If Mr. Gingrich wins narrowly, Mr. Romney could still take comfort in the fact that his rival's weaker ground game prevented him from taking full advantage of the momentum he appeared to gain in the final days. That would create problems for Mr. Gingrich in Florida, a much larger state and one of the most expensive advertising markets in the country.
But if Mr. Gingrich pulls off a big win – beating Mr. Romney by 5 percentage points or more – the Republican nomination race will become an entirely new contest on Sunday.
3. WILL RICK SANTORUM COME IN THIRD OR FOURTH?
Despite winning the backing of evangelical Christian leaders, in a state where evangelicals make up two-thirds of Republican primary voters, Mr. Santorum's campaign has not caught fire in South Carolina. He likely needs to finish a strong third, ahead of Texas congressman Ron Paul, to be able to justify staying in the race. Even then, he will find it harder to raise money just at the point in the race when he needs it most.
A Santorum exit as early as tonight, if not before the Florida vote, would be a major boost for Mr. Gingrich.
4. WILL RON PAUL HIT A SNAG IN THE CAROLINAS?
The libertarian septuagenarian is a rock star among college students for his anti-war views. He outperformed expectations in the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, winning more than 20 per cent of the vote in both states. But he faces a more skeptical electorate in South Carolina, traditionally one of the most hawkish states in the union. His debate performances on Monday and Thursday were widely panned in South Carolina and beyond.
Regardless of his vote tally, however, don't expect Mr. Paul to pull out of the race soon. He has more money than any candidate except Mr. Romney and he likely seeks to influence the Republican platform at the August convention.
If he exceeds expectations in South Carolina, he will have even more leverage in the party. The eventual GOP nominee will be eager to ensure Mr. Paul does not launch an independent bid for the presidency, draining Republican votes in the fall.
5. WILL SUCCESS BRING A KINDER, GENTLER NEWT?
Mr. Gingrich reacted to his humiliating results in Iowa and New Hampshire by delivering memorably bitter concession speeches. Though he promised to stay positive on the campaign trail, no candidate disparaged his rivals more savagely than him.
Buoyed by the South Carolina polls, however, a new Newt took to the campaign trail on Friday and Saturday. He was upbeat, positive, and even self-deprecating.
It could signal a shift in strategy. After all, if he is to become a real contender against President Barack Obama in November, he will need to tone down the rabid rhetoric to appeal to independent voters. He has done that in the past couple of days. But can it last?