Winner of the left-wing primaries ahead of France's 2017 presidential elections Benoit Hamon holds a rose prior to deliver a speech following the first results of the primary's second round on January 29, 2017, at his campaign headquarters in Paris. French leftwinger Benoit Hamon has won the Socialist nomination for president in this year's election, easily defeating centrist ex-premier Manuel Valls in a runoff, partial results showed on January 29, 2017. Results from 60 percent of polling stations showed Hamon winning 58.65 percent to 41.35 percent for Valls, announced the head of the primary organising committee, Thomas Clay.CHRISTOPHE ARCHAMBAULT/AFP / Getty Images
When François Hollande was elected France's President in 2012, the French Socialist Party looked unstoppable. The Socialists not only held the presidency, they also controlled both houses in parliament and most of the country's regional governments.
Now just five years later, the party is on the brink of disappearing, torn apart by internal divisions and battered by the same anti-establishment forces that brought Brexit to Britain and Donald Trump to the White House. Once a bastion of social democracy, France is joining other European countries in a shift to the right and embracing populist sentiment. And change is coming.
In a sign of just how far the Socialists have fallen, the party's presidential candidate, Benoît Hamon, is expected to finish fifth in the first round of voting on April 23. And the party could be wiped out in June after elections to the National Assembly.
Mr. Hollande isn't seeking re-election and the three candidates leading the race to replace him are promising major reforms to the economy, the social system and relations with other countries. Two of the front-runners – the National Front's Marine Le Pen and former banker Emmanuel Macron – are running as outsiders, hoping to capitalize on the anti-establishment mood. The third – the Republican Party's François Fillon – is promising a Margaret-Thatcher-type of revolution and closer ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
"It's a complete disaster for the Socialist Party," said Bruno Cavalier, chief economist at Oddo Securities in Paris and an analyst of French politics. "It's quite likely the end of the Socialist Party as we knew it from early 1970 up to today."
Much of the discontent dates back to the months following Mr. Hollande's victory. He came to power on an anti-business platform, vowing to take on the financial sector and introduce crippling taxes on the wealthy. But as the country's economy struggled, Mr. Hollande changed his approach and started cutting corporate taxes and reforming the country's restrictive labour laws. That cost him support within the party and across the country when the economy slumped. By the fall of 2016, Mr. Hollande's approval rating had fallen to 4 per cent.
"What's happened is that for many, many, years this party was unable to have a clear position about the economy," said Gérard Grunberg, a professor at the Centre for European Studies at Science Po in Paris. He added that the Socialists run the risk of becoming so fragmented they are irrelevant.
Those divisions were amplified during the party's primary to select a presidential candidate. The left wing rebuked the party establishment and embraced Mr. Hamon, 49, a former education minister who quit cabinet in 2014 in protest over Mr. Hollande's pro-business shift. He won Sunday's runoff against former prime minister Manuel Valls, with a Bernie-Sanders-like campaign to bring the party back to its socialist roots with plans for a guaranteed annual income, legalization of marijuana and a repeal of Mr. Hollande's labour reforms.
"We didn't believe in the Socialist Party and Mr. Hollande is very, very unpopular," said long-time party supporter Laredj Bourokba, 31, as he celebrated Mr. Hamon's victory Sunday. "We have new ideas in our party. We have a new generation."
The real winner from Sunday's vote could be Mr. Macron. The 39-year-old ex-banker was recruited as economy minister by Mr. Hollande in 2014 to push the more business-friendly agenda but he quit two years later saying many of his reforms had been blocked. He launched his own party, En Marche!, a year ago and polls show him closing in on Ms. Le Pen and Mr. Fillon. With Mr. Hamon pulling the Socialists further to the left, the party's moderates could turn to Mr. Macron.
That includes Laurent Saint Martin, 31, who works for the Euronext stock exchange in Paris. He campaigned for Mr. Hollande in 2012 but says the party no longer reflects his beliefs.
"They just represent the old world," said Mr. Saint Martin as he campaigned for Mr. Macron on Saturday. "What's the point today in 2017 to vote for some guy [Mr. Hamon] when you perfectly know that he will not do what he has in his program? I always used to vote either Socialist or Green. Now I vote Macron and I still feel myself as a left-wing guy."
Mr. Fillon, 62, is under pressure too. He stunned the Republicans by winning the party's primary last November, defeating stalwarts Alain Juppé, a former prime minister, and former president Nicolas Sarkozy. But his campaign has been hurt by allegations he paid his wife, Penelope, a salary while he was a member of the National Assembly even though she did no work. Mr. Fillon, who was prime minister under Mr. Sarkozy, has confirmed that he employed his wife but insisted he did nothing wrong.
On Sunday, Mr. Fillon tried to refocus his campaign, telling around 13,000 supporters at a rally in Paris that he wouldn't be intimidated by the allegations. He also vowed to press ahead with his agenda, which includes cracking down on Muslim extremists, cutting taxes and slashing the public sector workforce by nearly 500,000 positions.
For supporters like Wladimir d'Harcourt, Mr. Fillon's troubles will soon fade and the campaign will get back on track. "Everyone does that," Mr. d'Harcourt said Sunday referring to the hiring of Ms. Fillon. "None of the other parties are attacking him over that. This country needs him."
Ms. Le Pen too has been trying to take advantage of the Socialists' plight by trying to broaden her base of support with new policies on environmental protection and food safety.
"She's showing that the [National Front] has more to offer than the traditional topics of immigration, fighting against the rising rate of crime and things like that," said Bruno Gollnisch, a senior party figure and a member of the European Parliament.
For whoever wins the election two things are certain: the country will have a new president and France won't be same. And there's a sad irony for Mr. Hollande too. The country's economy has begun to turnaround, with unemployment falling and business confidence picking up.
"The irony is people reject François Hollande but at the end of his mandate the situation is improving," said Mr. Cavalier, the economist. "But it's too late."