A man looks at newspapers with pictures of Brazil's President-elect Dilma Rousseff, of the Workers Party, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Monday, Nov. 1, 2010. Governing party candidate Dilma Rousseff was elected Brazil's president, becoming the nation's first female leader. She will take office Jan. 1.Felipe Dana/AP
With Sunday's election of Dilma Rousseff as the next president of Brazil, and its first woman in that office, it might finally be time to retire the country's most famous joke at its own expense.
In 1941, the Austrian writer Stefan Zweig wrote a book declaring Brazil the country of the future. Which, given subsequent decades of military dictatorship, corruption and economic crisis inspired the joke: "Brazil, country of the future and always will be."
Ms. Rousseff, the Workers' Party (PT) candidate, won 56 per cent in Sunday's runoff vote for the presidency, defeating rival Jose Serra of the Social Democratic Party.
When she is inaugurated on Jan. 1 in the capital Brasilia, Ms. Rousseff will take the reins of a country predicted to be the world's fifth largest economy when it hosts the Summer Olympics in 2016.
The onetime Marxist guerrilla, imprisoned and tortured during the country's military dictatorship, will also be responsible for managing Brazil's new-found oil wealth., Last week's major discovery at the offshore Libra well near Rio de Janeiro will likely vault Brazil, already a global agribusiness powerhouse, into the top 10 petroleum producers in the world.
In short, the country has never had it so good, enjoying a rare moment of economic growth, political stability and international recognition all at once. Contrary to expectations, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a former trade unionist, proved a pragmatic economic manager, balancing export and market-friendly policies with pioneering social programs that are reducing poverty rates faster than are India or China. With the economy projected to grow by 7 per cent this year, Brazil bounced back quickly from the global recession. Even the hyperinflation that derailed earlier booms appears finally to be a thing of the past.
By electing Ms. Rousseff, Mr. da Silva's former chief-of-staff, Brazilians have essentially guaranteed themselves a continuance of his policies. The only area in which Ms. Rousseff has hinted she might deviate from her predecessor is more direct government involvement in key sectors such as banking, energy and oil.
Otherwise, the president-elect pledges to address the business left unfinished by the outgoing administration, including some chronic challenges that have the potential to undermine Brazil's emergence as an economic superpower.
Education remains the country's most glaring weakness. Brazilian students lag far behind those of other developing nations in basic skills. Only a third of the population has a secondary-school education, less than half the amount in most rich countries.
Companies are already complaining that a shortage of skilled labour is curtailing their growth. Some are opening schools to begin educating the work force themselves. In the final debate of the campaign last Friday, Ms. Rousseff acknowledged that education is "the most important issue facing Brazil."
Transportation infrastructure is also in dire need of investment. Aging roads and a lack of storage facilities are creating bottlenecks at shipping ports. The country's airports are already more than a year behind on the renovations necessary to accommodate visitors when Brazil hosts the World Cup in 2014.
Meanwhile, economists argue that in the long term the country will need to reduce its dependency on commodity exports, much of which go to China, while diversifying production of higher-value manufactured goods and services.
The laundry list of reforms could go on: from a lavish pension system the government can barely afford to a lack of progress in the fight against political corruption. The latter being the one fact of life that Brazilians say has most consistently robbed the country of its promised future.
Fortunately for Ms. Rousseff, she assumes the presidency with some extra wind in her sails. Thanks to congressional elections on Oct. 3, the PT and its coalition partners strengthened their majorities in the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies.
As for Mr. da Silva, it's unclear what sort of role he will play in the new administration.
After casting his ballot Sunday, he told reporters that Ms. Rousseff has "to form a government in her own image," adding, "I only hope she achieves more than I did." He was notably absent from Ms. Rousseff's victory party that evening, allowing her, for perhaps the first time since the campaign began, to step beyond his shadow.
For her part, Ms. Rousseff has already signalled that she intends to call on Mr. da Silva's considerable political capital and bargaining skills whenever she needs them.
"I know that a leader like Lula will never be far from his people and from every one of us," Ms. Rousseff said in her victory speech. "I will knock on his door and I am sure I'll always find it open."
Special to The Globe and Mail