Jeb Bush, 62, seems like a throwback to an earlier era.Jim Cole/The Associated Press
Jeb Bush bounds into the auditorium at Franklin Pierce University like a man with a purpose. The night before in Iowa, he received the lowest percentage of votes – 3 per cent – that any Bush has ever received in a presidential primary or caucus. But no matter: He speaks forcefully, expounds upon his record as governor of Florida and implores voters to change the course of the current race.
Early on, he lands a broadside against Donald Trump, the man who leads the polls on the Republican side of next week's New Hampshire primary. Mr. Trump is "gifted beyond belief when he promotes himself," Mr. Bush says. "He is extraordinary at making fun of others."
Mr. Bush is none of those things. He is affable, measured and knowledgeable. Just months ago, he was the presumptive front-runner for the Republican nomination, but in this primary season, the man whose family supplied the past two Republican presidents is struggling simply to stay relevant – and the New Hampshire primary may be his final chance.
The primary, on Feb. 9, is a critical test not just for Mr. Bush, but also for the other "establishment" candidates in the Republican field: Ohio Governor John Kasich, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Florida Senator Marco Rubio. For this group, next Tuesday will help decide who remains in the race and who folds.
Even then, the fate of the party remains up for grabs. A good chunk of Republicans view Mr. Trump's candidacy with alarm and also dislike Texas Senator Ted Cruz, the other candidate proudly outside the party mainstream. Yet it's unclear whether any of the establishment figures can emerge victorious in a campaign where bombast and outsider credentials have proven key to attracting voters.
Practical political experience "used to be a good thing," says John Feehery, a Republican strategist in Washington, D.C. But today, a large percentage of the party's primary voters value "ideological purity and rhetorical flourish more than they value actual know-how."
In that environment, Mr. Bush, 62, seems like a throwback to an earlier era. Asked whether his candidacy is viable in today's Republican Party, he responds firmly in the affirmative.
"I'm the most conservative candidate running based on the reality of results," Mr. Bush says in a brief interview with The Globe and Mail after the town hall event earlier this week. "I'm totally in the mainstream of my party, for sure."
"We've seen a fracturing of our political process, both left and right," he adds. "We have to have a unifying message that draws all conservatives together, and then goes and persuades people who don't think about this from an ideological perspective."
Unlike Iowa, with its high proportion of evangelical voters, New Hampshire is, in theory, a natural place for more mainstream Republicans to thrive. Its brand of conservatism tends to place less emphasis on divisive social questions such as abortion and more focus on fiscal probity. What's more, it has an open primary: Voters not registered as Democrats or Republicans can choose which party primary to vote in on polling day, which gives a larger role to independent-minded voters.
Mr. Bush's campaign is running television advertisements in New Hampshire, including one that attacks Mr. Trump and another that highlights Mr. Bush's capacity to be commander-in-chief. Both the campaign and the outside group supporting Mr. Bush remain flush with cash: Right to Rise, the pro-Bush super political action committee, has $54-million (U.S.) on hand (in July, however, it had an astonishing $103-million).
A survey of 425 likely Republican primary voters by Harper Polling earlier this week had Mr. Bush in second place, with 14 per cent to Mr. Trump's 31 per cent. Another survey, conducted on Wednesday by a local television station and the University of Massachusetts, had Mr. Bush in fourth place, behind Mr. Trump, Mr. Rubio and Mr. Cruz.
Things could change considerably between now and Tuesday. The current Republican primary is the most unpredictable in memory, said Thomas Rath, a former New Hampshire attorney-general who served as an adviser to the presidential campaigns of George W. Bush and Mitt Romney.
Jeb Bush is well-liked and well-known, but both he and Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton "are suffering different strains of the same virus – there's a little bit of a fatigue factor," Mr. Rath said. "Familiarity does not bring comfort."
Back at the town hall in Rindge, Mr. Bush responds in detail to voters' questions on topics ranging from the national debt to the split between Sunni and Shia Muslims. He hugs a questioner who runs a program for drug addicts in prisons.
There are flashes of humour, some slightly awkward. At one point, he recalls the complaint of a small-business owner he met earlier who owns a microbrewery. "Everyone's a microbrewer, right?" When a 19-year-old young man asks a question, explaining it's his first time voting, Mr. Bush replies to his query, then adds, "I want to be your first." The audience laughs.
(In his brief chat with The Globe, Mr. Bush also talks about how he is a big fan of Canada and jokes that there is a secret plan to make Miami the country's winter capital.)
His style won fans among the audience. Linda Ouellette, 66, says she was considering voting for "big mouth" – Mr. Trump – because she didn't want to waste her vote and thought Mr. Bush was "too nice a guy." Seeing him in person changed her mind. "He's got the stuff to back it up," she says.
Nearby are Ann Pliska and Jeanne Carguilo, both independent voters and retired teachers. They say Mr. Trump reminds them of a playground bully. Mr. Bush is the only Republican who could win her vote, Ms. Carguilo says. Ms. Pliska adds that she is not a fan of Mr. Bush's father or older brother, but she likes his down-to-earth approach and his anti-abortion stance. She is taking home a few campaign signs and will display them on her lawn.