Mark MacKinnon
Jeremy Corbyn and Donald Trump don't agree on very much. If they were ever at the same dinner party, they might end up taking swings at each other.
And yet Mr. Corbyn, who is running for the leadership of Britain's opposition Labour Party, and Mr. Trump, the would-be U.S. Republican presidential nominee, are frequently mentioned together in Britain these days – two mavericks whose unexpected successes identify them as symptoms of a malaise infecting politics on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.
Both men have charged from the corners of their country's political discourse into the mainstream, carrying with them opinions that were once considered too wild to win elections.
Mr. Trump, of course, is leading the polls among U.S. Republicans despite making a series of xenophobic, sexist and just plain ill-informed remarks that should have sunk his hopes of winning by now.
The 66-year-old Mr. Corbyn, who stands on the far left of the generally centre-left Labour Party, is a less bombastic politician. But his contrarian views on foreign policy – he thinks the West should go easier on Russian President Vladimir Putin, and spend more time engaging the likes of Hezbollah and Hamas – plus his old-school socialist take on economics, made him seem an unlikely leader of a party that lost an election earlier this year in part because many voters perceived former leader Ed Miliband as too left-wing.
Mr. Trump's grating message resonates with right-wing voters disillusioned with Republican candidates who look and sound too much like their Democrat rivals. Mr. Corbyn looks set to become the leader of Her Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition – even though he opposes the monarchy – because many on Britain's left are tired of Labour leaders who talk and act like Conservatives.
A parliamentary rebel who voted against his own party more than 500 times in the House of Commons over his 32-year career as a backbench MP, Mr. Corbyn has called for the renationalization of Britain's railways, as well as the reopening of defunct coal mines. He also wants to see university tuition fees scrapped, and higher taxes on corporations. During a BBC interview this summer, he spoke of his admiration for Karl Marx.
Mr. Corbyn wouldn't have even made it onto the ballot for the Labour leadership if several of the party's MPs hadn't agreed to nominate him in order to widen the debate and ensure the field included a candidate from the party's left wing.
He was never supposed to win. Of 1,180 Labour members interviewed by a pair of university professors after Labour was thumped by the Conservative Party in a May election, only two named Mr. Corbyn as their preferred successor to Mr. Miliband. Former health secretary Andy Burnham, a centrist in the tradition of Labour's last two prime ministers, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, was the heir apparent.
Those Labour MPs who helped get Mr. Corbyn's name onto the ballot now stand aghast as the token leftist they propped up looks set to cruise to a first-ballot victory when the results of the leadership vote, which concluded on Thursday, are announced on Saturday. All polls showed Mr. Corbyn set to win more than 50 per cent of the vote against a field of three centrist candidates, with Mr. Burnham and fellow Brown-era cabinet minister Yvette Cooper left to battle each over who should be the anti-Corbyn candidate, should the race go to a second round.
There were reports on Thursday that some party members hadn't received their ballots in time to vote. But second-term MP Liz Kendall, who was expected to finish fourth, gave what amounted to a concession speech, calling for the party to accept the verdict of its membership.
Mr. Corbyn's rise was aided by the backing of Britain's biggest trade unions (which also supported Mr. Miliband's candidacy), as well as a surge in new memberships under recently loosened rules that allow anyone who pays £3, or about $6, to receive a ballot. Mr. Burnham, Ms. Cooper and second-term MP Liz Kendall, who was expected to finish fourth, downset Kendall if previous para is used all expressed concerns about the integrity of the vote, amid sporadic reports of Conservatives joining the party to help push Mr. Corbyn's bid over the top.
Tony Travers, a professor of politics at the London School of Economics, said Mr. Corbyn was being propelled to victory by "a large number of left-wingers on one hand, and number of Conservatives and people who don't wish the party well."
Britain's two main left-wing publications, The Guardian newspaper and the New Statesman magazine, both backed Ms. Cooper, only to see their recommendations apparently ignored. Mr. Blair and Mr. Brown – long-time rivals who both entered Parliament with Mr. Corbyn in 1983 – have put out a series of increasingly shrill warnings that analysts believe have only helped shore up Mr. Corbyn's support.
"It will mean rout, possibly annihilation," for Labour if Mr. Corbyn leads the party into the next general election, Mr. Blair wrote in The Guardian's sister paper, The Observer. "The party is walking eyes shut, arms outstretched, over the cliff's edge to the jagged rocks below."
But the polls didn't budge. There wasn't even a quiver when The Daily Telegraph, which is as right-wing as The Guardian is left, advised its readers to join Labour and cast their ballots for Mr. Corbyn as a way of ensuring that the Conservatives would remain in power beyond 2020. "Sign up today to make sure the bearded socialist voter-repellent becomes the next Labour leader – and dooms the party forever," the Telegraph wrote.
Many on the British left – like some on the American right – are apparently past caring what the pundits and political elites say is the smart thing to do. Mr. Blair's advice is considered particularly radioactive since many in Labour have never forgiven him for leading Britain into the 2003 Iraq war. Mr. Corbyn voted against participation in that conflict and has suggested that Mr. Blair should be investigated for war crimes.
While Mr. Corbyn's opinions about Iraq are now embraced by the British mainstream, pollsters believe that his other views will make it hard for him to lead Labour to a general election victory. Several veteran Labour politicians have already indicated that they would not sit in a shadow cabinet headed by Mr. Corbyn.
"There's certainly polling evidence to support that his policies on defence, on foreign policy, and on immigration would stand Labour a long way to the left of the average voter," said Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London. "Most voters can't see Corbyn as a credible alternative prime minister."