New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is one of the Republicans who is considering a run for the party's presidential nomination in 2016. (AP Photo/Mel Evans)The Associated Press
The political polls that don't tell us anything sometimes tell us everything.
The prime example for this winter are polls examining the support that various Republican presidential hopefuls have in the gathering struggle for the party's 2016 nomination. With some variation, these polls generally show former governor Jeb Bush of Florida at the top of the heap, or close to it, but by no means in a commanding position. Indeed, he is at the top position, or within the margin of error of the top position, in all of the three early political tests: Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
That is not bad for a man who has been a putative candidate for only about a month, but what it really says is that neither he nor any of the others in the race really have established themselves in the eyes of the Republican electorate. The most recent soundings taken by the respected Marist College Institute for Public Opinion list 11 prospective candidates, and what is remarkable is that there is so little definition among them.
That underscores that the challenge for the Republican candidates is to distinguish themselves from the others in the field.
That process takes time, money and diligence. It means raising funds, building campaign organizations and engaging in patient, lengthy interchanges with voters in small forums: coffee shops, meetings in legion halls and libraries, walks along Main Street, talks at Rotary Clubs and fraternal lodges, visits to veterans' hospitals, conversations at factory games, interviews at remote rural radio stations, speeches to civic groups at breakfast and garden clubs at lunch. It means having something to say, and saying it repeatedly, hour after hour, day after day, town after town, yawn after yawn.
These early poll soundings show former governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, a favourite of social and religious conservatives, ahead by a whisker in Iowa, a state he took eight years ago with fully a third of the 2008 caucus vote, 9 percentage points ahead of former governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and 21 percentage points ahead of Senator John McCain of Arizona, who finished fourth in Iowa but who won the GOP nomination that year.
This time, Mr. Huckabee, now touring the United States promoting his book, God, Guns, Grits, and Gravy, faces competition for the social and religious conservative vote from Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin. Together they account for a third of the Iowa vote, which in a way alters the usual calculus of politics. It means that, in Iowa and perhaps elsewhere, there really will be two, or perhaps three Republican races, not one: a struggle between Mr. Huckabee and Mr. Walker to be king of the social conservatives; a race between Mr. Bush and Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey to become king of the establishment Republicans; and a race between all of the others to be king of the insurgents.
The Huckabee/Walker struggle and the Bush/Christie fight are one-on-one affairs and will divide their respective camps. Both among social conservatives and establishment Republicans, the two contending camps will be competing for basically the same organizers, activists and campaign fundraisers. They will beseech the same potential volunteers and the same potential donors. Families, law firms and social groups will be torn asunder and the spectacle will fascinate the press and political cognoscenti.
But there will be that third struggle, which in some ways may be the more fascinating. Senators Rand Paul of Kentucky, Marco Rubio of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas, along with retired surgeon Ben Carson, Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, and perhaps Governor Mick Pence of Indiana are the remainder men. None is at the top of the list. Each has a compelling personal story, a welcoming speaking style, a record of conservatism. Each is a new face, an advantage in a campaign that increasingly seems to be against former secretary of state Hillary Clinton.
Then there are three wild cards. One is former senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, who won Iowa in 2012 and is attracting attention for an unusual book, about his severely ill little girl. One is former governor Rick Perry of Texas, who flamed out in 2012 but who has a populist style suited to the moment. And one is Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, who is in a strong position in the primary in his own state, which holds the third contest in the march to the Republican nomination. Normally a home-state candidate is expected to prevail on familiar territory, so South Carolina will matter only if Mr. Graham, a protege of Mr. McCain, does not win,
So do these polls that show us nothing actually tell us quite a lot?
Yes, they do, if you let your eyes wander way past the single digits in the poll printouts. There you focus on the percentage of voters who say they are undecided – and there you realize that the large number of undecided voters is why the Republican contest itself is undecided.
The first contests are less than a year away. The Republican nomination won't be decided until the undecideds decide. The candidates are going to knock themselves out trying to knock out the contenders in their respective divisions – social conservatives, establishment Republicans, insurgents. Those are separate contests. But the one that matters may be the fourth – for the support of the undecideds, and of the voters who migrate to the undecided slot as their first choice stumbles.