Quebec Liberal Leader Pablo Rodriguez, right, opted not to seek a National Assembly seat in advance of the 2026 election, instead naming MNA Marwah Rizqy, right, as Opposition House Leader.Jacques Boissinot/The Canadian Press
Wide-leg jeans are not the only 1970s fashion phenomenon making a comeback in Quebec these days: Talk of another sovereignty vote is arguably even trendier than those bell-bottoms that have been flying off retailers’ shelves in the province and elsewhere.
The Parti Québécois, which leads the polls in advance of the 2026 provincial election, has recently stepped up its efforts to prepare Quebeckers for a third sovereignty referendum by rolling out a series of policy papers outlining the contours of an independent Quebec.
The probability that Quebeckers will vote once again on whether to separate from Canada is increasing by the day as the PQ begins publicly pitching its plan to hold a plebiscite on separation by 2030 if it wins an election scheduled for next October.
Polls show that around two-thirds of Quebeckers do not want another referendum. But the same surveys also indicate that their aversion to a third sovereignty plebiscite will not stop enough of them from voting for the PQ next year. And once the PQ takes power, a whole new chapter in sovereigntist politics will open, one that could yield unpredictable results.
Anti-corruption police looking into Quebec Liberals as internal crisis shakes party
That is especially true given the sorry state of the Quebec Liberal Party – the province’s only truly federalist party – as Leader Pablo Rodriguez scrambles to contain a snowballing internal crisis that could cost him the job he won just five months ago. The crisis threatens to sap whatever momentum the QLP had hoped to build in advance of the election.
Mr. Rodriguez quit the federal Liberal cabinet in the dying days of Justin Trudeau’s government to run for the QLP leadership. He became the default front-runner when then-federal industry minister (and now Finance Minister) François-Philippe Champagne rejected entreaties to run from leading members of the QLP establishment.
The Argentinian-born Mr. Rodriguez opted not to seek a National Assembly seat in advance of the 2026 election, arguing it was more important to spend his time rebuilding the party, especially in majority French-speaking regions of the province where its support had most withered. Instead, he named star QLP MNA Marwah Rizqy as Opposition House Leader, putting her in charge of the 20-member Liberal caucus and its parliamentary business.
Federal Minister of Finance and National Revenue François-Philippe Champagne.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
Last week, Mr. Rodriguez suddenly suspended Ms. Rizqy from caucus after she fired her chief of staff without consulting him. Ms. Rizqy had justified the firing by saying Geneviève Hinse had committed a “serious fault,” but did not provide details. Subsequent media reports suggested the dismissal revolved around the alleged use of National Assembly funds for partisan activities.
If that was not enough to revive memories of past QLP funding scandals, Le Journal de Montréal also last week published what it said were text messages between two supporters of Mr. Rodriguez’s leadership bid in which they discussed providing $100 payments to QLP members in exchange for their votes. The practice, while apparently legal under Quebec’s electoral law, is reminiscent of the rampant vote-buying schemes of postwar Union Nationale premier Maurice Duplessis. It is unthinkable in modern Quebec.
The QLP has called on a former Quebec Superior Court judge, Jacques R. Fournier, to investigate the allegations. Mr. Rodriguez has also suggested the text messages were fabricated and threatened to take legal action against Le Journal unless it provided proof of their authenticity. That is not the only lawsuit, or threat thereof, that has been waved around in recent days. Ms. Hinse has launched a wrongful dismissal suit against her ex-boss.
Quebec Liberal leader Pablo Rodriguez demands external investigation into cash-for-votes report
Mr. Rodriguez has held multiple press conferences – even appearing on the Radio-Canada Sunday night talk show Tout le monde en parle – to defend his integrity and try to stem the fallout from the crisis now engulfing his leadership. “You want to be premier of Quebec, but you’re unable to manage a caucus of 20 MNAs,” the show’s co-host told Mr. Rodriguez.
Former federal Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff, under whom Mr. Rodriguez served as a top Quebec organizer, offered faint praise of his former MP’s leadership qualities. In an interview with Le Devoir, he described Mr. Rodriguez as “a grassroots man more than a man of ideas.” He insisted it was not a criticism; it was hard for any reader to otherwise interpret his words.
While his personal story as the son of an Argentinian refugee who came to Canada in 1975 to escape that country’s military junta may resonate with many voters, Mr. Rodriguez is no one’s idea of a charismatic or inspirational leader. He has yet to provide a compelling case to vote Liberal. Vowing not to hold a referendum – which up to now has appeared to be the cornerstone of the Liberal platform – will not be enough to beat the PQ. The QLP needs to offer Quebeckers much more.
Worried federalists may soon be once again courting Mr. Champagne.